Uncertainties in Predicting Species Distributions under Climate Change: A Case Study Using Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae), a Widespread Agricultural Pest

Many species are shifting their distributions due to climate change and to increasing international trade that allows dispersal of individuals across the globe. In the case of agricultural pests, such range shifts may heavily impact agriculture. Species distribution modelling may help to predict potential changes in pest distributions. However, these modelling strategies are subject to large uncertainties coming from different sources. Here we used the case of the tomato red spider mite (Tetranychus evansi), an invasive pest that affects some of the most important agricultural crops worldwide, to show how uncertainty may affect forecasts of the potential range of the species. We explored three aspects of uncertainty: (1) species prevalence; (2) modelling method; and (3) variability in environmental responses between mites belonging to two invasive clades of T. evansi. Consensus techniques were used to forecast the potential range of the species under current and two different climate change scenarios for 2080, and variance between model projections were mapped to identify regions of high uncertainty. We revealed large predictive variations linked to all factors, although prevalence had a greater influence than the statistical model once the best modelling strategies were selected. The major areas threatened under current conditions include tropical countries in South America and Africa, and temperate regions in North America, the Mediterranean basin and Australia. Under future scenarios, the threat shifts towards northern Europe and some other temperate regions in the Americas, whereas tropical regions in Africa present a reduced risk. Analysis of niche overlap suggests that the current differential distribution of mites of the two clades of T. evansi can be partially attributed to environmental niche differentiation. Overall this study shows how consensus strategies and analysis of niche overlap can be used jointly to draw conclusions on invasive threat considering different sources of uncertainty in species distribution modelling.     

High-Andean vegetation and environmental gradients in northwestern Patagonia,Argentina

Abstract. We analysed the heterogeneity of high-elevation vegetation on three mountains along a west-east transect at 41 °S lat. in the Andes of northwestern Patagonia, Argentina. In this area, high-Andean vegetation occurs as islands on mountain tops above Nothofagus pumilio forests ? with the timberline at ca. 1700 m a.s.l. We recorded floristic, topographic and substrate data in 166 sites stratified according to longitude, altitude, slope and aspect. Vegetation data were classified with TWINSPAN and ordinated with Detrended Correspondence Analysis. The relationship between environmental and floristic variation was analysed using Canonical Correspondence Analysis. In order of importance, geographical longitude, altitude and aspect were the major determinants of vegetation variation, whereas substrate texture and slope appeared less important. The combination of these factors resulted in two main vegetation gradients. The first gradient is related to a moisture availability gradient, primarily determined by longitude and secondarily to variation in wind exposure (east vs. west aspect). The second vegetation gradient is related to variation in temperature, primarily determined by altitude, and secondarily by variation in insolation related to the contrast between north and south aspects. The four communities obtained with TWINSPAN are therefore associated with four characteristic habitat types: moist-cold, moist-warm, dry-cold and dry-warm. The community of warm and dry environments is the richest and has elements in common with dry steppe communities situated at lower elevations to the east, while the vegetation of the cold-moist habitat type has unique elements that are typical of the southern Andes. Although current climatic factors appear to be the major determinants of high-Andean vegetation gradients, historical events of Pleistocene times probably also affected the vegetation patterns we see today.     

The virtual ecologist approach: simulating data and observers

Ecologists carry a well‐stocked toolbox with a great variety of sampling methods, statistical analyses and modelling tools, and new methods are constantly appearing. Evaluation and optimisation of these methods is crucial to guide methodological choices. Simulating error‐free data or taking high‐quality data to qualify methods is common practice. Here, we emphasise the methodology of the ‘virtual ecologist’ (VE) approach where simulated data and observer models are used to mimic real species and how they are ‘virtually’ observed. This virtual data is then subjected to statistical analyses and modelling, and the results are evaluated against the ‘true’ simulated data. The VE approach is an intuitive and powerful evaluation framework that allows a quality assessment of sampling protocols, analyses and modelling tools. It works under controlled conditions as well as under consideration of confounding factors such as animal movement and biased observer behaviour. In this review, we promote the approach as a rigorous research tool, and demonstrate its capabilities and practical relevance. We explore past uses of VE in different ecological research fields, where it mainly has been used to test and improve sampling regimes as well as for testing and comparing models, for example species distribution models. We discuss its benefits as well as potential limitations, and provide some practical considerations for designing VE studies. Finally, research fields are identified for which the approach could be useful in the future. We conclude that VE could foster the integration of theoretical and empirical work and stimulate work that goes far beyond sampling methods, leading to new questions, theories, and better mechanistic understanding of ecological systems.     

DIFFERENTIAL LIFE HISTORY PHASE EXPRESSION IN TWO COEXISTING SPECIES OF SCYTOSIPHON (PHAEOPHYCEAE) IN NORTHERN CHILE1

The identity of two phaeophycean taxa that monopolized the middle‐lower rocky intertidal zone of a coastal area chronically exposed to copper mine wastes in northern Chile was unraveled. One of them was preliminarily identified as the gametophytic stage of Scytosiphon lomentaria (Lyngbye) Link. The other, a dark crust, resembled the alternate stage of some Scytosiphon species. Comparative analysis of morphology, life history, and DNA sequences strongly suggests that crusts corresponded to sporophytic S. tenellus Kogame and confirm that erect thalli belonged to S. lomentaria. A clear segregation of erect and crustose thalli was found using internal transcribed spacer region 1 and RUBISCO spacer sequences. Furthermore, whereas crusts always grouped with S. tenellus, erect thalli always grouped with S. lomentaria. Life history studies failed to connect the two entities. First, field‐collected S. tenellus produced progeny that either recycled the crust, which reproduced by unilocular zoidangia, or developed into erect thalli. The latter, unlike typical gametophytic S. lomentaria, developed patchy sori of plurilocular zoidangia. Second, S. lomentaria displayed a direct‐type life cycle, in which progeny from erect individuals only developed into erect thalli and produced only plurilocular zoidangia. This constitutes the first experimental study on Scytosiphon from the Pacific coast of South America and the first report of S. tenellus on this coast. It is also the first report of the crustose stage of Scytosiphon appearing as a perennial and dominant algal species in a temperate rocky intertidal system.     

The promoter of the wheat puroindoline-a gene (<Emphasis Type="Italic">PinA</Emphasis>) exhibits a more complex pattern of activity than that of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">PinB</Emphasis> gene and is induced by wounding and pathogen attack in rice

Puroindolines form the molecular basis of wheat grain hardness. However, little is known about puroindoline gene regulation. We previously reported that the Triticum aestivum puroindoline-b gene (PinB) promoter directs β-glucuronidase gene (uidA) seed-specific expression in transgenic rice. In this study, we isolated a puroindoline-a gene (PinA), analyzed PinA promoter activity by 5′ deletions and compared PinA and PinB promoters in transgenic rice. Seeds of PinA-1214 and PinB-1063 transgenic plants strongly expressed uidA in endosperm, in the aleurone layer and in epidermis cells in a developmentally regulated manner. The GUS activity was also observed in PinA-1214 embryos. Whereas the PinB promoter is seed specific, the PinA promoter also directed, but to a lower level, uidA expression in roots of seedlings and in the vascular tissues of palea and pollen grains of dehiscent anthers during flower development. In addition, the PinA promoter was induced by wounding and by Magnaporthe grisea. By deletion analysis, we showed that the “390-bp” PinA promoter drives the same expression pattern as the “1214-bp” promoter. Moreover, the “214-bp” PinA promoter drives uidA expression solely in pollen grains of dehiscent anthers. The presence of putative cis-regulatory elements that may be related to PinA expression is discussed from an evolutionary point of view. By electrophoretic mobility shift assay, we showed that putative cis-elements (WUN-box, TCA motifs and as-1-like binding sites) whose presence in the PinA promoter may be related to wounding and/or the pathogen response form complexes with nuclear extracts isolated from wounded wheat leaves.     

First human rabies case in French Guiana, 2008: epidemiological investigation and control

Background

Until 2008, human rabies had never been reported in French Guiana. On 28 May 2008, the French National Reference Center for Rabies (Institut Pasteur, Paris) confirmed the rabies diagnosis, based on hemi-nested polymerase chain reaction on skin biopsy and saliva specimens from a Guianan, who had never travelled overseas and died in Cayenne after presenting clinically typical meningoencephalitis.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Molecular typing of the virus identified a Lyssavirus (Rabies virus species), closely related to those circulating in hematophagous bats (mainly Desmodus rotundus) in Latin America. A multidisciplinary Crisis Unit was activated. Its objectives were to implement an epidemiological investigation and a veterinary survey, to provide control measures and establish a communications program. The origin of the contamination was not formally established, but was probably linked to a bat bite based on the virus type isolated. After confirming exposure of 90 persons, they were vaccinated against rabies: 42 from the case''s entourage and 48 healthcare workers. To handle that emergence and the local population''s increased demand to be vaccinated, a specific communications program was established using several media: television, newspaper, radio.

Conclusion/Significance

This episode, occurring in the context of a Department far from continental France, strongly affected the local population, healthcare workers and authorities, and the management team faced intense pressure. This observation confirms that the risk of contracting rabies in French Guiana is real, with consequences for population educational program, control measures, medical diagnosis and post-exposure prophylaxis.     

Fruit Mineral Contents of Six Wild Species of the North Andean Patagonia, Argentina

The fruit mineral contents (K, Ca, Ba, Br, Zn, Co, Cr, Fe, Na, Rb, Cs, and Sr) of four native and two exotic naturalized shrubs growing in different areas of the Andean Patagonian region of Argentina were investigated. Native species Berberis darwinii, Berberis microphylla (Berberidaceae), Aristotelia chilensis (Elaeocarpaceae) and Ribes magellanicum (Saxifragaceae) produce small berries while the fruits of the exotic species Rosa rubiginosa and Rosa canina (Rosaceae) are aggregates of aquenes. They are used to prepare jams, tea, liquors, and ice creams. Native shrub fruits had higher content of Br, Zn, Co, Cr, Fe, Mo, and Na than those of the exotic naturalized species. Rosa species showed the highest contents of Ca and Ba in their fruits (the mean content doubled those of the native plant fruits). The fruit nutrient content found in the studied species was similar or higher than other values reported for fruits of temperate and tropical species in the world.