Ecological niche modeling of the invasive potential of Nile tilapia Oreochromis niloticus in African river systems: concerns and implications for the conservation of indigenous congenerics

This study applied ecological niche models to determine the potential invasive range of Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus, with a particular focus on river systems in southern Africa where it is now established and spreading. Computational tools such as niche models are useful in predicting the potential range of invasive species, but there are limitations to their application. In particular, models trained on native records may fail to predict the full extent of an invasion. This failure is often attributed to changes in either the niche of the invading species or the variables used to develop the models. In this study, we therefore evaluated the differences in the predictive power of models trained with different environmental variables, the effect of species range (native vs. introduced) on model performance and assessed whether or not there is evidence suggestive of a niche shift in Nile tilapia following its introduction. Niche models were constructed using Maxent and the degree of niche similarity was assessed using Schoener`s index. Null models were used to test for significance. Model performance and niche conservatism varied significantly with variable selection and species range. This indicates that the environmental conditions available to Nile tilapia in its native and introduced ranges are not congruent. Nile tilapia exhibited broad invasive potential over most of southern Africa that overlaps the natural range of endemic congenerics. Of particular concern are areas which are free of exotic species but are now vulnerable due to the promotion of fish introductions mainly for aquaculture and sport fishing.     

Development of Methods for Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence Estimation in a Large,Community Randomized Trial

Background

Accurate methods of HIV incidence determination are critically needed to monitor the epidemic and determine the population level impact of prevention trials. One such trial, Project Accept, a Phase III, community-randomized trial, evaluated the impact of enhanced, community-based voluntary counseling and testing on population-level HIV incidence. The primary endpoint of the trial was based on a single, cross-sectional, post-intervention HIV incidence assessment.

Methods and Findings

Test performance of HIV incidence determination was evaluated for 403 multi-assay algorithms [MAAs] that included the BED capture immunoassay [BED-CEIA] alone, an avidity assay alone, and combinations of these assays at different cutoff values with and without CD4 and viral load testing on samples from seven African cohorts (5,325 samples from 3,436 individuals with known duration of HIV infection [1 month to >10 years]). The mean window period (average time individuals appear positive for a given algorithm) and performance in estimating an incidence estimate (in terms of bias and variance) of these MAAs were evaluated in three simulated epidemic scenarios (stable, emerging and waning). The power of different test methods to detect a 35% reduction in incidence in the matched communities of Project Accept was also assessed. A MAA was identified that included BED-CEIA, the avidity assay, CD4 cell count, and viral load that had a window period of 259 days, accurately estimated HIV incidence in all three epidemic settings and provided sufficient power to detect an intervention effect in Project Accept.

Conclusions

In a Southern African setting, HIV incidence estimates and intervention effects can be accurately estimated from cross-sectional surveys using a MAA. The improved accuracy in cross-sectional incidence testing that a MAA provides is a powerful tool for HIV surveillance and program evaluation.     

Trophic interrelationships between the exotic Nile tilapia, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Oreochromis niloticus</Emphasis> and indigenous tilapiine cichlids in a subtropical African river system (Limpopo River,South Africa)

The stable isotope ratio and seasonal changes in diet of two indigenous (Oreochromis mossambicus, Tilapia rendalli) and one exotic (Oreochromis niloticus) tilapiine cichlids in the subtropical Limpopo River, South Africa were investigated to determine patterns of resource partitioning. Stomach contents of O. niloticus and O. mossambicus indicated high dietary overlap across size class, habitat and season, with both species primarily feeding on vegetative detritus. However, stable isotope analysis revealed that the two Oreochromis species had different stable isotope ratios derived from different food sources. The relatively δ¹³C-depleted O. niloticus indicates a phytoplankton-based diet, while the δ¹³C-enriched O. mossambicus indicates a macrophagous diet dominated by vegetative detritus and periphyton. The high similarity in stomach contents and the interspecific differences in isotopic composition reveal fine-scale patterns of food resource partitioning that could be achieved through selective feeding. Tilapia rendalli was largely macrophagous and fed mainly on aquatic macrophytes and had a low dietary overlap with both O. niloticus and O. mossambicus. In the Limpopo River, detritus and algae are probably the most abundant food resources and the causal factors responsible for the observed patterns of resource partitioning among the tilapiines are usually difficult to ascertain. Fish may be able to perceive food resources in terms of the dynamics that determine their availability. Detailed studies of variation in food resource availability and fish habitat use within the system are needed to evaluate this hypothesis.     

Differences in HIV natural history among African and non-African seroconverters in Europe and seroconverters in sub-Saharan Africa

Introduction

It is unknown whether HIV treatment guidelines, based on resource-rich country cohorts, are applicable to African populations.

Methods

We estimated CD4 cell loss in ART-naïve, AIDS-free individuals using mixed models allowing for random intercept and slope, and time from seroconversion to clinical AIDS, death and antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation by survival methods. Using CASCADE data from 20 European and 3 sub-Saharan African (SSA) cohorts of heterosexually-infected individuals, aged ≥15 years, infected ≥2000, we compared estimates between non-African Europeans, Africans in Europe, and Africans in SSA.

Results

Of 1,959 (913 non-Africans, 302 Europeans - African origin, 744 SSA), two-thirds were female; median age at seroconversion was 31 years. Individuals in SSA progressed faster to clinical AIDS but not to death or non-TB AIDS. They also initiated ART later than Europeans and at lower CD4 cell counts. In adjusted models, Africans (especially from Europe) had lower CD4 counts at seroconversion and slower CD4 decline than non-African Europeans. Median (95% CI) CD4 count at seroconversion for a 15–29 year old woman was 607 (588–627) (non-African European), 469 (442–497) (European - African origin) and 570 (551–589) (SSA) cells/µL with respective CD4 decline during the first 4 years of 259 (228–289), 155 (110–200), and 199 (174–224) cells/µL (p<0.01).

Discussion

Despite differences in CD4 cell count evolution, death and non-TB AIDS rates were similar across study groups. It is therefore prudent to apply current ART guidelines from resource-rich countries to African populations.     

Trophic interrelationships amongst cichlid fishes in a tropical African reservoir (Lake Chivero,Zimbabwe)

The diet of seven cichlid species of Lake Chivero, Zimbabwe, was investigated from October 2004 to April 2005 to determine the degree of dietary overlap and interspecific competition. These fish could be separated into four groups. Two microphages, Oreochromis niloticus and O. macrochir, fed mostly on blue-green algae and their diets, in all size classes, overlapped almost completely. This suggested a high degree of competition between the two species and may account for the fact that O. niloticus, introduced into the lake in the 1980s is now the dominant species. There was also a significant dietary overlap between the two macrophages Tilapia sparrmanii and T. rendalli, which were macrophages with macrophytes as a significant component of their diet. Interspecific competition between these two species may account for the increase in the abundance of T. sparrmanii and a decrease in the numbers of T. rendalli over the last two decades. The diet of two small omnivores Pharyngochromis acuticeps and Pseudocrenilabrus philander consisted of algae, zooplankton, plant material, fish and detritus and also overlapped extensively, but these species probably avoid competition by living in different habitats; P. philander is usually associated with vegetation while P. acuticeps tends to live in more open waters. The last species, Serranochromis robustus, was largely piscivorous. There were no ontogenetic variations in diet, apart from P. acuticeps where small fish fed mainly on zooplankton becoming omnivorous in larger ones, and S. robustus where the diet shifted from zooplankton in specimens <50 mm SL to fish in larger size classes. Data available from the 1960s and 1970s indicate that the diets of some species have changed with invertebrates such as chironomid larvae being previously more important in all diets, while most species now take a higher proportion of algae. This reflects changes in the lake, which is eutrophic and has experienced severe algal blooms since 1960. Handling editor: C. Strumbauer     

Nevirapine- Versus Lopinavir/Ritonavir-Based Initial Therapy for HIV-1 Infection among Women in Africa: A Randomized Trial

Background

Nevirapine (NVP) is widely used in antiretroviral treatment (ART) of HIV-1 globally. The primary objective of the AA5208/OCTANE trial was to compare the efficacy of NVP-based versus lopinavir/ritonavir (LPV/r)-based initial ART.

Methods and Findings

In seven African countries (Botswana, Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, Uganda, Zambia, and Zimbabwe), 500 antiretroviral-naïve HIV-infected women with CD4<200 cells/mm³ were enrolled into a two-arm randomized trial to initiate open-label ART with tenofovir (TDF)/emtricitabine (FTC) once/day plus either NVP (n = 249) or LPV/r (n = 251) twice/day, and followed for ≥48 weeks. The primary endpoint was time from randomization to death or confirmed virologic failure ([VF]) (plasma HIV RNA<1 log₁₀ below baseline 12 weeks after treatment initiation, or ≥400 copies/ml at or after 24 weeks), with comparison between treatments based on hazard ratios (HRs) in intention-to-treat analysis. Equivalence of randomized treatments was defined as finding the 95% CI for HR for virological failure or death in the range 0.5 to 2.0. Baseline characteristics were (median): age = 34 years, CD4 = 121 cells/mm³, HIV RNA = 5.2 log₁₀copies/ml. Median follow-up = 118 weeks; 29 (6%) women were lost to follow-up. 42 women (37 VFs, five deaths; 17%) in the NVP and 50 (43 VFs, seven deaths; 20%) in the LPV/r arm reached the primary endpoint (HR 0.85, 95% CI 0.56–1.29). During initial assigned treatment, 14% and 16% of women receiving NVP and LPV/r experienced grade 3/4 signs/symptoms and 26% and 22% experienced grade 3/4 laboratory abnormalities. However, 35 (14%) women discontinued NVP because of adverse events, most in the first 8 weeks, versus none for LPV/r (p<0.001). VF, death, or permanent treatment discontinuation occurred in 80 (32%) of NVP and 54 (22%) of LPV/r arms (HR = 1.7, 95% CI 1.2–2.4), with the difference primarily due to more treatment discontinuation in the NVP arm. 13 (45%) of 29 women tested in the NVP versus six (15%) of 40 in the LPV/r arm had any drug resistance mutation at time of VF.

Conclusions

Initial ART with NVP+TDF/FTC demonstrated equivalent virologic efficacy but higher rates of treatment discontinuation and new drug resistance compared with LPV/r+TDF/FTC in antiretroviral-naïve women with CD4<200 cells/mm³.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00089505","term_id":"NCT00089505"}}NCT00089505 Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The frequency of malaria is similar among women receiving either lopinavir/ritonavir or nevirapine-based antiretroviral treatment

HIV protease inhibitors (PIs) show antimalarial activity in vitro and in animals. Whether this translates into a clinical benefit in HIV-infected patients residing in malaria-endemic regions is unknown. We studied the incidence of malaria, as defined by blood smear positivity or a positive Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich protein 2 antigen test, among 444 HIV-infected women initiating antiretroviral treatment (ART) in the OCTANE trial (A5208; ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00089505). Participants were randomized to treatment with PI-containing vs. PI-sparing ART, and were followed prospectively for ≥48 weeks; 73% also received cotrimoxazole prophylaxis. PI-containing treatment was not associated with protection against malaria in this study population.     

Type-Specific Cervico-Vaginal Human Papillomavirus Infection Increases Risk of HIV Acquisition Independent of Other Sexually Transmitted Infections

Background

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) such as herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 are associated with an increased risk of HIV infection. Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a common STI, but little is know about its role in HIV transmission. The objective of this study was to determine whether cervico-vaginal HPV infection increases the risk of HIV acquisition in women independent of other common STIs.

Methods and Findings

This prospective cohort study followed 2040 HIV-negative Zimbabwean women (average age 27 years, range 18–49 years) for a median of 21 months. Participants were tested quarterly for 29 HPV types (with L1 PCR primers) and HIV (antibody testing on blood samples with DNA or RNA PCR confirmation). HIV incidence was 2.7 per 100 woman-years. Baseline HPV prevalence was 24.5%, and the most prevalent HPV types were 58 (5.0%), 16 (4.7%), 70 (2.4%), and 18 (2.3%). In separate regression models adjusting for baseline variables (including age, high risk partner, positive test for STIs, positive HSV-2 serology and condom use), HIV acquisition was associated with having baseline prevalent infection with HPV 58 (aHR 2.13; 95% CI 1.09–4.15) or HPV 70 (aHR 2.68; 95% CI 1.08–6.66). In separate regression models adjusting for both baseline variables and time-dependent variables (including HSV-2 status, incident STIs, new sexual partner and condom use), HIV acquisition was associated with concurrent infection with any non-oncogenic HPV type (aHR 1.70; 95% CI 1.02–2.85), any oncogenic HPV type (aHR 1.96; 95% CI 1.16–3.30), HPV 31 (aHR 4.25; 95% CI 1.81–9.97) or HPV 70 (aHR 3.30; 95% CI 1.50–7.20). Detection of any oncogenic HPV type within the previous 6 months was an independent predictor of HIV acquisition, regardless of whether HPV status at the HIV acquisition visit was included (aHR 1.95; 95% CI 1.19–3.21) or excluded (aHR 1.96; 95% CI 1.02–2.85) from the analysis.

Conclusions/Significance

Cervico-vaginal HPV infection was associated with an increased risk of HIV acquisition in women, and specific HPV types were implicated in this association. The observational nature of our study precludes establishment of causation between HPV infection and HIV acquisition. However, given the high prevalence of HPV infection in women, further investigation of the role of HPV in HIV transmission is warranted.     

The diaphragm and lubricant gel for prevention of cervical sexually transmitted infections: results of a randomized controlled trial

Background

We evaluated the effectiveness of the Ortho All-Flex Diaphragm, lubricant gel (Replens®) and condoms compared to condoms alone on the incidence of chlamydial and gonococcal infections in an open-label randomized controlled trial among women at risk of HIV/STI infections.

Methods

We randomized 5045 sexually-active women at three sites in Southern Africa. Participants who tested positive for curable STIs were treated prior to enrollment as per local guidelines. Women were followed quarterly and tested for Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) or Neisseria gonorrhoeae (GC) infection by nucleic-acid amplification testing (Roche Amplicor®) using first-catch urine specimens. STIs detected at follow-up visits were treated. We compared the incidence of first infection after randomization between study arms in both intent-to-treat (ITT) and per-protocol populations.

Findings

Baseline demographic, behavioral and clinical characteristics were balanced across study arms. Nearly 80% of participants were under 35 years of age. Median follow-up time was 21 months and the retention rate was over 93%. There were 471 first chlamydia infections, 247 in the intervention arm and 224 in the control arm with an overall incidence of 6.2/100 woman-years (wy) (relative hazard (RH) 1.11, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 0.93–1.33; p = 0.25) and 192 first gonococcal infections, 95 in the intervention arm and 97 in the control arm with an overall incidence of 2.4/100wy (RH 0.98, 95%CI: 0.74–1.30; p = 0.90). Per protocol results indicated that when diaphragm adherence was defined as “always use” since the last visit, there was a significant reduction in the incidence of GC infection among women randomized to the intervention arm (RH 0.61, 95%CI: 0.41–0.91, P = 0.02).

Interpretation

There was no difference by study arm in the rate of acquisition of CT or GC. However, our per-protocol results suggest that consistent use of the diaphragm may reduce acquisition of GC.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00121459","term_id":"NCT00121459"}}NCT00121459 [{"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00121459","term_id":"NCT00121459"}}NCT00121459]     

Niche complementarity between an alien predator and native omnivorous fish in the Wilge River,South Africa

Hydrobiologia - A major challenge in biological invasions is to predict community susceptibility to invasion. This study investigated trophic interrelationships between an alien predator,...