Driving forces of soil organic carbon evolution at the landscape and regional scale using data from a stratified soil monitoring

Soil monitoring programmes face significant challenges as there is an important trade‐off between detecting significant changes in soil properties on the one hand (which can be achieved by minimizing variability by higher sampling density or stratification approaches), and identifying the driving forces responsible for these changes on the other hand (which requires enough variability). This study aims to reconcile these two objectives by identifying the driving forces of soil organic carbon (SOC) evolution over a long period, based on an extensive but stratified soil monitoring programme. Data at both the finest level (questionnaires to the farmers) and the large scale (agricultural census, climate and soil databases for southern Belgium) were used in a cluster analysis, multiple linear regressions and mixed odels in order to discriminate between the driving forces involved. Results indicated that the negative ‘baseline effect’ (i.e. the inversely proportional effect of the initial SOC content on the SOC evolution) was responsible for an important part of the SOC variability. Consequently, the systems are not at steady state when starting the observations, although this assumption is used by most SOC dynamic models. Moreover, the baseline effect resulted in a trend of the soils to converge towards a regional SOC stock which significantly differed according to land use (36.4 t C ha^?1 for the plough depth of cropland and 92.2 t C ha^?1 for the 0–30 cm layer of grassland). Despite this strong effect, the main driving forces of the SOC decrease of cropland (?0.2 t C ha^?1 yr^?1) and SOC increase of grassland (+0.2 t C ha^?1 yr^?1) over a period of 50 years were discriminated. The agricultural management (cropland) and the clay content (grassland), together with the change in precipitation (to a lesser degree for cropland) were highlighted as the predominant factors involved in SOC evolution, when land use change is excluded. The use of questionnaires allowed to better understanding the impact of an intensive agricultural management on the SOC content, as the lowest SOC stocks were associated to the most intensively managed fields. The mixed models partly succeeded in predicting SOC evolution as they presented still large uncertainties after validation (mean error from 3% to 25%, root mean square error of prediction from 21% to 242%). While SOC monitoring schemes are increasingly being implemented, our results will likely apply to those using a similar design. It was shown that this strategy succeeded to reconcile both the SOC change detection and the distinction of the driving forces involved at the regional scale.     

Temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon after land‐use change in the temperate zone – carbon response functions as a model approach

Land‐use change (LUC) is a major driving factor for the balance of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the global carbon cycle. The temporal dynamic of SOC after LUC is especially important in temperate systems with a long reaction time. On the basis of 95 compiled studies covering 322 sites in the temperate zone, carbon response functions (CRFs) were derived to model the temporal dynamic of SOC after five different LUC types (mean soil depth of 30±6 cm). Grassland establishment caused a long lasting carbon sink with a relative stock change of 128±23% and afforestation on former cropland a sink of 116±54%, 100 years after LUC (mean±95% confidence interval). No new equilibrium was reached within 120 years. In contrast, there was no SOC sink following afforestation of grasslands and 75% of all observations showed SOC losses, even after 100 years. Only in the forest floor, there was carbon accumulation of 0.38±0.04 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 in afforestations adding up to 38±4 Mg ha^?1 labile carbon after 100 years. Carbon loss after deforestation (?32±20%) and grassland conversion to cropland (?36±5%), was rapid with a new SOC equilibrium being reached after 23 and 17 years, respectively. The change rate of SOC increased with temperature and precipitation but decreased with soil depth and clay content. Subsoil SOC changes followed the trend of the topsoil SOC changes but were smaller (25±5% of the total SOC changes) and with a high uncertainty due to a limited number of datasets. As a simple and robust model approach, the developed CRFs provide an easily applicable tool to estimate SOC stock changes after LUC to improve greenhouse gas reporting in the framework of UNFCCC.     

Changes in organic carbon distribution with depth in agricultural soils in northern Belgium, 1960–2006

In most studies concerning the carbon (C) exchange between soil and atmosphere only the topsoil (0–0.3 m) is taken into account. However, it has been shown that important amounts of stable soil organic carbon (SOC) are also stored at greater depth. Here, we developed a quantitative model to estimate the evolution of the distribution of SOC with depth between 1960 (database 'Aardewerk') and 2006 in northern Belgium. This temporal analysis was conducted under different land use, texture and drainage conditions. The results indicate that intensified land management practices seriously affect the SOC status of the soil. The increase in plough depth and a change in crop rotation result in a significant decrease of C near the surface for dry silt loam cropland soils, (i.e. 1.02 ± 0.23 kg C m⁻² in the top 0.3 m between 1960 and 2006). In wet to extremely wet grasslands, topsoil SOC decreased significantly, indicating a negative influence of intensive soil drainage on SOC stock. This resulted in a decline of SOC between 1960 and 2006 in the top 1 m, ranging from 3.99 ± 2.57 kg C m⁻² in extremely wet silt loam soils to 2.04 ± 2.08 kg C m⁻² in wet sandy soils. A slight increase of SOC stock is observed under dry to moderately wet grasslands at greater depths corresponding to increased livestock densities in the region. The increase of SOC in the top 1 m under grassland ranges from 0.65 ± 1.39 kg C m⁻² in well drained silt loam soils to 2.59 ± 6.49 kg C m⁻² in moderately drained silt loam soils over entire period.     

Spatial analysis of soil organic carbon evolution in Belgian croplands and grasslands, 1960–2006

Given the importance of soil organic carbon (SOC) as a pool in the global carbon cycle and an indicator for soil quality, there exits an urgent need to monitor this dynamic soil property. Here, we present a modelling approach to analyze the spatial patterns and temporal evolution of organic carbon in mineral soils under agricultural land use in Belgium. An empirical model, predicting the SOC concentration in the top 0.3 m, as a function of precipitation, land use, soil type and management has been constructed and applied within a spatial context using data from different time slices. The results show that SOC content is strongly correlated with precipitation and temperature under cropland and with texture and drainage under grassland. Total SOC stock increased with 1.3% from 6.18 ± 0.03 kg C m^?2 in 1960 to 6.26 ± 0.07 kg C m^?2 in 2006. Although this increase was not significant (P>0.05), a significant discrepancy between cropland (?8%) and grassland (+10%) was observed. Foremost, the grasslands in the hilly southern part of the country, under relatively wet climate conditions, acted as important sinks of CO₂. Under cropland, all soil types were characterized by a decrease in SOC, except for the clay soils in the north‐west. Currently, croplands in the central loam region have SOC concentrations close to 10 g C kg^?1 indicating that these soils are at risk of a decline in aggregate stability. An overall strong SOC decline in poorly drained soils is probably caused by artificial drainage. Further research is needed to gain more insight into the processes driving the observed SOC trends. Moreover, the use of updated drainage class information and land management history would improve the empirical models.     

Projecting future N2O emissions from agricultural soils in Belgium

This study analyses the spatial and temporal variability of N₂O emissions from the agricultural soils of Belgium. Annual N₂O emission rates are estimated with two statistical models, MCROPS and MGRASS, which take account of the impact of changes in land use, climate, and nitrogen‐fertilization rate. The models are used to simulate the temporal trend of N₂O emissions between 1990 and 2050 for a 10′ latitude and longitude grid. The results are also aggregated to the regional and national scale to facilitate comparison with other studies and national inventories. Changes in climate and land use are derived from the quantitative scenarios developed by the ATEAM project based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change‐Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (IPCC‐SRES) storylines. The average N₂O flux for Belgium was estimated to be 8.6 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹ (STD = 2.1 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹) for the period 1990–2000. Fluxes estimated for a single year (1996) give a reasonable agreement with published results at the national and regional scales for the same year. The scenario‐based simulations of future N₂O emissions show the strong influence of land‐use change. The scenarios A1FI, B1 and B2 produce similar results between 2001 and 2050 with a national emission rate in 2050 of 11.9 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹. The A2 scenario, however, is very sensitive to the reduction in agricultural land areas (−14% compared with the 1990 baseline), which results in a reduced emission rate in 2050 of 8.3 × 10⁶ kg N₂O‐N yr⁻¹. Neither the climatic change scenarios nor the reduction in nitrogen fertilization rate could explain these results leading to the conclusion that N₂O emissions from Belgian agricultural soils will be more markedly affected by changes in agricultural land areas.