Patterns in grouse and Woodcock Scolopax rusticola hunting yields from central Norway 1901–24 do not support the alternative prey hypothesis for grouse cycles

According to the alternative prey hypothesis, autumn populations of ground-nesting game birds fluctuate in synchrony with vole numbers because generalist predators that mainly eat voles switch to alternative prey, such as eggs and chicks, when vole numbers decline. In hunting statistics from Nord-Trøndelag, central Norway, 1901–24, annual fluctuations in the number of Willow Grouse Lagopus lagopus and Western Capercaillie Tetrao urogallus , but not of Woodcock Scolopax rusticola , were positively related to vole numbers in the current year. Both Woodcock and grouse indices were related to hunting indices of Goshawk Accipiter gentilis and to weather variables assumed to influence the birds' survival or reproduction, suggesting that the indices actually reflected local population levels. Synchronous vole and grouse fluctuations are consistent with the alternative prey hypothesis (although predator densities were low in the early 1900s), but the asynchronous Woodcock fluctuations refute the hypothesis. Rather, because the Woodcock does not feed on plants utilized by voles and grouse, I suggest that food quality is the ultimate factor for the synchrony in vole and grouse numbers in Norway.     

Effects of climate on population fluctuations of ibex

Predicting the effects of the expected changes in climate on the dynamics of populations require that critical periods for climate‐induced changes in population size are identified. Based on time series analyses of 26 Swiss ibex (Capra ibex) populations, we show that variation in winter climate affected the annual changes in population size of most of the populations after accounting for the effects of density dependence and demographic stochasticity. In addition, precipitation during early summer also influenced the population fluctuations. This suggests that the major influences of climate on ibex population dynamics operated either through loss of individuals during winter or early summer, or through an effect on fecundity. However, spatial covariation in these climate variables was not able to synchronize the population fluctuations of ibex over larger distances, probably due to large spatial heterogeneity in the effects of single climate variables on different populations. Such spatial variation in the influence of the same climate variable on the local population dynamics suggests that predictions of influences of climate change need to account for local differences in population dynamical responses to climatic conditions.     

Rapid Sustainability Modeling for Raptors by Radiotagging and DNA-Fingerprinting

Abstract: Sustainable use of wildlife is crucial to ensuring persistence of natural resources. We used age-specific survival and breeding data to parameterize a demographic model for a harvested Kazakh saker falcon (Falco cherrug) population by radiotagging juveniles and estimating adult turnover with DNA-fingerprinting during 1993–1997. We gathered similar data during 1990–1998 to model populations of British buzzards (Buteo buteo), and during 1980–1998 to model populations of Swedish goshawks (Accipiter gentilis). Leg-bands and implanted microtransponders provided ways to test for bias and to estimate the harvest of sakers for falconry. Despite an estimated minimum first-year survival of only 23%, the observed productivity of 3.14 young per clutch would sustain a saker population (i.e., λ = 1) with a breeding rate (at laying) of only 0.63 for adults or with a residual juvenile yield of 37% if all adults breed. Higher first-year survival rates for goshawks and buzzards correlated with juvenile yields of up to 71%, but no more than half as many individuals if adults also were harvested. An annual population decline of 40% for sakers in southern Kazakhstan could be explained by observed productivity of only 0.71 young per clutch if there was also an estimated harvest of 55% of adults. This study shows that demographic models such as these can now be built rapidly if nestlings are fitted with reliable and safe radiotags and adult turnover is estimated from genetic analyses or other techniques.