Evidential statistics as a statistical modern synthesis to support 21st century science

During the 20th century, population ecology and science in general relied on two very different statistical paradigms to solve its inferential problems: error statistics (also referred to as classical statistics and frequentist statistics) and Bayesian statistics. A great deal of good science was done using these tools, but both schools suffer from technical and philosophical difficulties. At the turning of the 21st century (Royall in Statistical evidence: a likelihood paradigm. Chapman & Hall, London, 1997 ; Lele in The nature of scientific evidence: statistical, philosophical and empirical considerations. The University of Chicago Press, Chicago, pp 191–216, 2004a ), evidential statistics emerged as a seriously contending paradigm. Drawing on and refining elements from error statistics, likelihoodism, Bayesian statistics, information criteria, and robust methods, evidential statistics is a statistical modern synthesis that smoothly incorporates model identification, model uncertainty, model comparison, parameter estimation, parameter uncertainty, pre-data control of error, and post-data strength of evidence into a single coherent framework. We argue that evidential statistics is currently the most effective statistical paradigm to support 21st century science. Despite the power of the evidential paradigm, we think that there is no substitute for learning how to clarify scientific arguments with statistical arguments. In this paper we sketch and relate the conceptual bases of error statistics, Bayesian statistics and evidential statistics. We also discuss a number of misconceptions about the paradigms that have hindered practitioners, as well as some real problems with the error and Bayesian statistical paradigms solved by evidential statistics.     

Aerobic training increases the expression of adiponectin receptor genes in the peripheral blood mononuclear cells of young men

Little is known about the effect of exercise training on the expression of adiponectin receptor genes in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMCs). In this study, we investigated the effects of aerobic training on the expression of AdipoR1 and AidpoR2 mRNAs in PBMCs, whole body insulin sensitivity, and circulating adiponectins in men. Thirty young men were randomly assigned to either a control (n=15) or an exercise (n=15) group. Subjects assigned to the exercise group underwent a 12-week jogging and/or running programme on a motor-driven treadmill at an intensity of 60%-75% of the age-based maximum heart rate with duration of 40 minutes per session and a frequency of 5 days per week. Two-way mixed ANOVA with repeated measures was used to test any significant time-by-group interaction effects for the measured variables at p=0.05. We found significant time-by-group interaction effects for waist circumference (p=0.001), VO_2max (p<0.001), fasting insulin (p=0.016), homeostasis model assessment for insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) (p=0.010), area under the curve (AUC) for insulin response during the 75-g oral glucose tolerance test (p=0.002), high-molecular weight (HMW) adiponectin (p=0.016), and the PBMC mRNA levels of AdipoR1 (p<0.001) and AdipoR2 (p=0.001). The exercise group had significantly increased mRNA levels of AdipoR1 and AdipoR2 in PBMCs, along with increased whole body insulin sensitivity and HMW adiponectin, decreased waist circumference, and increased VO_2max compared with the control group. In summary, the current findings suggest that exercise training modulates the expression of AdipoR1 and AdipoR2 mRNAs in PBMCs, implying that manipulation of the expression of these genes could be a potential surrogate for lifestyle intervention-mediated improvements of whole body insulin sensitivity and glucose homeostasis.     

Are Kupffer cells involved in the metabolic adaptation of the liver to dietary carbohydrates given after fasting?

In rats, a high carbohydrate fat-free (HCFF) diet, given after fasting, induces both hepatic lipogenic and glycogenic enzymes. In the present study, we evaluated the involvement of Kupffer cells in the metabolic events occurring in the liver during the fasting-refeeding transition. Male Wistar rats were fasted for 48 h and received an intravenous injection of either NaCl 0.9% (Gd-) or 10 mg/kg GdCl(3) (Gd+), an inhibitor of Kupffer cells, then fed for 12 h with a HCFF diet. The comparison of colloidal carbon uptake was similar in rats fasted and in rats fasted and then refed a HCFF diet, thus indicating that refeeding does not affect per se Kupffer cell phagocytic activity. The inhibition of Kupffer cells by GdCl(3) did not affect fatty acid synthase (FAS) induction, as shown by the analysis of both FAS mRNA and activity; refeeding a HCFF diet increased the hepatic triglyceride and glycogen content to the same extent in Gd+ and Gd- rats. Our results do not support the involvement of Kupffer cells in the metabolic events occurring in the liver tissue by feeding a HCFF diet after fasting. However, the discussion supports the involvement of Kupffer cells in the modulation of the hepatic lipid metabolism by other nutrients than carbohydrates.     

ParA encoded on chromosome II of Deinococcus radiodurans binds to nucleoid and inhibits cell division in Escherichia coli

Bacterial genome segregation and cell division has been studied mostly in bacteria harbouring single circular chromosome and low-copy plasmids. Deinococcus radiodurans, a radiation-resistant bacterium, harbours multipartite genome system. Chromosome I encodes majority of the functions required for normal growth while other replicons encode mostly the proteins involved in secondary functions. Here, we report the characterization of putative P-loop ATPase (ParA2) encoded on chromosome II of D. radiodurans. Recombinant ParA2 was found to be a DNA-binding ATPase. E. coli cells expressing ParA2 showed cell division inhibition and mislocalization of FtsZ-YFP and those expressing ParA2-CFP showed multiple CFP foci formation on the nucleoid. Although, in trans expression of ParA2 failed to complement SlmA loss per se, it could induce unequal cell division in slmAminCDE double mutant. These results suggested that ParA2 is a nucleoid-binding protein, which could inhibits cell division in E. coli by affecting the correct localization of FtsZ and thereby cytokinesis. Helping slmAminCDE mutant to produce minicells, a phenotype associated with mutations in the ‘Min’ proteins, further indicated the possibility of ParA2 regulating cell division by bringing nucleoid compaction at the vicinity of septum growth.     

Extraktion von Ochratoxin A aus geröstetem Kaffee Mittels Accelerated Solvent Extraction (ASE)

Accelerated solvent extraction (ASE) is an alternative sample extraction procedure for ochratoxin A in roasted coffee. ASE results are comparable to that of the modified Koch method, but required less sample preparation time. Furthermore, ASE gave higher quantitative values than other methods reported for extraction of ochratoxin A. In the end less harmful water could be used for extraction.     

Connecting geographical distributions with population processes

The geographical distribution of a species is determined by a large number of complex processes operating over spatial scales spanning 10 orders of magnitude. Patterns in population processes have been described at numerous scales. We show that two patterns, measured at different scales, jointly allow us to infer heretofore unknown patterns in the distribution of demographic patterns across the geographical range of a species. The resulting model describes three fundamentally different modes of geographical variation in vital rates of populations. One mode is characterized by a positive nonlinear relationship between the maximum rate of population growth and the intensity of intraspecific competition across a geographical range. That is, populations that grow rapidly are also those where individuals experience the greatest per capita negative effect of the presence of other individuals. The second mode of behaviour is described by a negative nonlinear relationship between maximum growth rate and density dependence. Under this scenario, populations with low capacity to grow rapidly have highest intensities of intraspecific competitive effects. A third mode of behaviour is characterized by a weak positive relationship between growth rate and intraspecific competition, with very little geographical variation in maximum growth rate. A survey of studies relating temporal means and variances in population abundance for a variety of species indicate that the second mode of geographical variation in population dynamics across species ranges is the most common, though a few species appear to be characterized by the third mode.     

Similar hypotensive responses to resistance exercise with and without blood flow restriction

Low intensity resistance exercise (RE) with blood flow restriction (BFR) has gained attention in the literature due to the beneficial effects on functional and morphological variables, similar to those observed during traditional RE without BFR, while the effects of BFR on post-exercise hypotension remain unclear. The aim of the present study was to compare the blood pressure (BP) response of trained normotensive individuals to RE with and without BFR. In this cross-over randomized trial, eight male subjects (23.8 ± 4 years, 74 ± 3 kg, 174 ± 4 cm) completed two exercise protocols: traditional RE (3 x 10 repetitions at 70% one-repetition maximum [1-RM]) and low intensity RE (3 x 15 repetitions at 20% 1-RM) with BFR. Blood pressure measurements were performed after 15 min of seated rest (0), immediately after and 10 min, 20 min, 30 min, 40 min, 50 min and 60 min after the experimental sessions. Similar hypotensive effects for systolic BP (SBP) were observed for both protocols (P < 0.05) after exercise, with no differences between groups (P > 0.05) and no statistically significant difference for diastolic BP (P > 0.05). These results suggest that in normotensive trained individuals, both traditional RE and RE with BFR induce hypotension for SBP, which is important to prevent cardiovascular disturbances.     

Theoretical models of species' borders: single species approaches

The range of potential mechanisms limiting species' distributions in space is nearly as varied and complex as the diversity of life itself. Yet viewed abstractly, a species' border is a geographic manifestation of a species' demographic responses to a spatially and temporally varying world. Population dynamic models provide insight into the different routes by which range limits can arise owing to gradients in demographic rates. In a metapopulation context, for example, range limits may be caused by gradients in extinction rates, colonization rates or habitat availability. We have consider invasion models in uniform and heterogeneous environments as a framework for understanding non-equilibrium range limits, and explore conditions under which invasions may cease to spread leaving behind a stationary range limit. We conclude that non-equilibrial range dynamics need further theoretical and empirical attention.