Time to Pregnancy: A Computational Method for Using the Duration of Non-Conception for Predicting Conception

An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple''s future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple''s fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes'' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple''s chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple''s expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility.     

In situ hybridization of semithin Epon sections with BrdU labelled oligonucleotide probes

Summary We recently described a nonradioactive method for in situ hybridization with 5-bromo-2-deoxyuridine (BrdU) labelled oligonucleotide probes. An antibody to BrdU and immunocytochemistry were used in order to detect the hybridization signal. We have now applied this method to semithin Epon sections, in order to hybridize consecutive sections through single cells with different probes and to stain them with antibodies to neuropeptides. It could be shown that Epon embedding preserves mRNA well. In the present study we used a BrdU labelled synthetic oligonucleotide probe complementary to a fragment of the vasopressin precursor and an antibody to Arg-vasopressin. Vasopressin mRNA was demonstrable in a fraction of the vasopressin immunoreactive neurons in the magnocellular nuclei. In addition some of the magnocellular neurons showed either hybridization or vasopressin immunostaining only, perhaps indicating different stages of synthetic and secretory activity. The method described seems to be a valuable tool for studying synthetic activity in peptidergic neurons on a single cell level. The method might also have potential for in situ hybridization on the electronmicroscopical level.     

A ‘Problematic fossil’ revealed:Pycnoporidium ? eomesozoicum Flügel, 1972 (Late Triassic,Tethys)—not an enigmatic alga but a strophomenid brachiopod (Gosaukammerella n.g.)

Summary The microproblematicumPycnoporidium ? eomesozoicum Flügel, 1972, from Upper Triassic reefs of the Alpine-Mediterranean region, Turkey Oman and Iran (originally interpreted as possible alga) represents the type species of a new strophomenid brachiopod genus (Gosaukammerella n.g.). The genus is characterized by a very small, millimeter-sized plano-convex shell, whose ventral valve is attached to the substratum (mainly sponges) by symmetrically arranged outgrowths developing from a pseudopunctate, lamellose foliated shell wall and composed of densely spaced subparallel ‘tubes’ comparable with productide spines secreted by papillose extensions of the mantle.Gosaukammerella seems to be the only reliable candidate for the existence of post-Paleozoic strophomenid (productid ?) brachiopods. Gosaukammerella eomesozoica is restricted to possibly cryptic, shaded reef environments inhabited predominantly by sponges serving as substrates for micromorphic brachiopods.     

Intercellular junctions in the uterine epithelium of Salamandra salamandra (L.) (Amphibia,Urodela)

Summary Intercellular junctions in the uterine epithelium of the ovoviviparous urodele Salamandra salamandra were studied in pregnant and non-pregnant females by freeze-fracture technique. Junctional complexes consist of zonulae occludentes (tight junctions) and numerous maculae adhaerentes (desmosomes); z. adhaerentes and nexuses (gap junctions) could not be identified. Tight junctions are of the flexible type exhibiting loosely interconnected fibrils. The fibrillary network appears stretched more often in pregnant females possibly due to the mechanical stress of pregnancy. The structure and occurrence of the junctions identified, especially that of the tight junctions, is discussed with regard to the functions of the uterus during pregnancy.Zusammenfassung Mit Hilfe der Gefrierbruchtechnik wurden im Uterus-epithel trächtiger und nichtträchtiger Feuersalamanderweibchen (Salamandra salamandra) Zonulae occludentes und Maculae adhaerentes, jedoch keine Z. adhaerentes sowie Nexus identifiziert. Die Z. occludentes sind flexibel. Ihr fibrilläres Netzwerk ist bei trächtigen Weibchen öfter gestreckt; das ist möglicherweise auf die stärkere Ausdehnung des Uterusgewebes während der Trächtigkeit zurückzuführen. Das Vorkommen der verschiedenen Kontakt-strukturen, namentlich das der Z. occludentes, wird im Hinblick auf die Funktionen des Uterus während der Trächtigkeit diskutiert.We are indebted to Mrs. K. Ott for excellent technical assistance and to Miss Dr. U. Beigel for linguistic help     

Innervation of the synovial membrane of the cats joint capsule

Summary Results of investigations on the occurrence of nerve fibres and endings in the synovial membrane of the knee and elbow joint in the cat are reported. The stratum synoviale contains only autonomic fibres, running in the adventitia of arteries.Free nerve endings are lacking in the stratum synoviale. Simple Pacinian corpuscles with an inner core are occasionally observed in the border zone between the stratum synoviale and fibrosum. The ultrastructure of these endorgans resembles that of Pacinian corpuscles in the hairless and hairy skin of the cat.     

Serum Iron Levels and the Risk of Parkinson Disease: A Mendelian Randomization Study

Background

Although levels of iron are known to be increased in the brains of patients with Parkinson disease (PD), epidemiological evidence on a possible effect of iron blood levels on PD risk is inconclusive, with effects reported in opposite directions. Epidemiological studies suffer from problems of confounding and reverse causation, and mendelian randomization (MR) represents an alternative approach to provide unconfounded estimates of the effects of biomarkers on disease. We performed a MR study where genes known to modify iron levels were used as instruments to estimate the effect of iron on PD risk, based on estimates of the genetic effects on both iron and PD obtained from the largest sample meta-analyzed to date.

Methods and Findings

We used as instrumental variables three genetic variants influencing iron levels, HFE rs1800562, HFE rs1799945, and TMPRSS6 rs855791. Estimates of their effect on serum iron were based on a recent genome-wide meta-analysis of 21,567 individuals, while estimates of their effect on PD risk were obtained through meta-analysis of genome-wide and candidate gene studies with 20,809 PD cases and 88,892 controls. Separate MR estimates of the effect of iron on PD were obtained for each variant and pooled by meta-analysis. We investigated heterogeneity across the three estimates as an indication of possible pleiotropy and found no evidence of it. The combined MR estimate showed a statistically significant protective effect of iron, with a relative risk reduction for PD of 3% (95% CI 1%–6%; p = 0.001) per 10 µg/dl increase in serum iron.

Conclusions

Our study suggests that increased iron levels are causally associated with a decreased risk of developing PD. Further studies are needed to understand the pathophysiological mechanism of action of serum iron on PD risk before recommendations can be made. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Association between pygmy right whales (Caperea marginata) and areas of high marine productivity off Australia and New Zealand

Abstract

Opportunistic sightings and strandings of Caperea marginata (n=196) from the vicinity of Australia and New Zealand (1884 to early 2007) were used to relate geographic and temporal patterns to oceanographic and broad-scale climatic variability. Records were not uniformly distributed along the coast and more (69%) were from Australia than New Zealand. Seven coastal whale ‘hotspots’ were identified which accounted for 61% of records with locality data. Half of the hotspot records were from southeast (37) and northwest (20) Tasmania—others each had 9–15 events. Upwelling and/or high zooplankton abundance has been documented near all whale hotspots. Records of C. marginata occurred in all months, with 75% in spring and summer. Inter-annual variability showed broad agreement between increased whale records (usually in spring/summer) and strongly positive ‘Niño 3.4’ during 1980–1995 but not thereafter. Coastal upwelling and productivity increase during climatic phenomena such as El Niño and are likely to be quickly beneficial to plankton-feeding whales such as C. marginata.     

To age or not to age

According to the antagonistic pleiotropy theory of ageing, natural selection has favoured genes conferring short-term benefits to the organism at the cost of deterioration in later life. The 'disposable soma' theory expresses this as a life-history strategy in which somatic maintenance is below the level required to prevent ageing, thus enabling higher immediate fertility. It has been argued that a non-ageing strategy will always be bettered by a low but non-zero rate of ageing, because the costs of such ageing will be felt only in the distant future when they are of negligible importance. Here, we examine this argument critically. We find that a non-ageing strategy will be locally optimal if, in the presence of ageing, the onset of deterioration is sufficiently rapid or early. Conversely, ageing will be optimal if deterioration is sufficiently slow or late. As the temporal profile of ageing changes from one of steady deterioration to one involving a sudden loss of vitality after a period of little or no decline, the conditions for a non-ageing strategy to be locally optimal become progressively more stringent. But for all forms of profile considered, conditions can be found for which a strategy involving no ageing is locally optimal.