The Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Tax Avoidance and Illicit Trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.     

Advanced carcinoma of the prostate: treatment with a gonadotrophin releasing hormone agonist.

Ten patients with advanced progressive adenocarcinoma of the prostate were treated with a long acting analogue of gonadotrophin releasing hormone. Eight of these patients responded to treatment in terms of pain relief and clinical regression of tumour. Serum gonadotrophin and testosterone concentrations were significantly suppressed by the end of the second week of treatment, testosterone concentrations being comparable with those achieved by castration. The two patients who failed to respond had both relapsed previously when receiving conventional treatment, and neither showed any endocrine response to the analogue. Superagonists of gonadotrophin releasing hormone may be the treatment of choice in adenocarcinoma of the prostate, but further trials are required to establish long term safety and efficacy.     

‘Mild mitochondrial uncoupling’ induced protection against neuronal excitotoxicity requires AMPK activity

The preconditioning response conferred by a mild uncoupling of the mitochondrial membrane potential (Δψ_m) has been attributed to altered reactive oxygen species (ROS) production and mitochondrial Ca^2 + uptake within the cells. Here we have explored if altered cellular energetics in response to a mild mitochondrial uncoupling stimulus may also contribute to the protection. The addition of 100 nM FCCP for 30 min to cerebellar granule neurons (CGNs) induced a transient depolarization of the Δψ_m, that was sufficient to significantly reduce CGN vulnerability to the excitotoxic stimulus, glutamate. On investigation, the mild mitochondrial ‘uncoupling’ stimulus resulted in a significant increase in the plasma membrane levels of the glucose transporter isoform 3, with a hyperpolarisation of Δψ_m and increased cellular ATP levels also evident following the washout of FCCP. Furthermore, the phosphorylation state of AMP-activated protein kinase (AMPK) (Thr 172) was increased within 5 min of the uncoupling stimulus and elevated up to 1 h after washout. Significantly, the physiological changes and protection evident after the mild uncoupling stimulus were lost in CGNs when AMPK activity was inhibited. This study identifies an additional mechanism through which protection is mediated upon mild mitochondrial uncoupling: it implicates increased AMPK signalling and an adaptive shift in energy metabolism as mediators of the preconditioning response associated with FCCP-induced mild mitochondrial uncoupling.     

Spontaneous Aggregation and Cytotoxicity of the β-Amyloid Aβ1–40: A Kinetic Model

The time dependency of the spontaneous aggregation of the fibrillogenic β-Amyloid peptide, Aβ^1–40, was measured by turbidity, circular dichroism, HPLC, and fluorescence polarization. The results by all methods were comparable and they were most consistent with a kinetic model where the peptide first slowly forms an activated monomeric derivative (AM), which is the only species able to initiate, by tetramerization, the formation of linear aggregates. The anti-Aβ antibody 6E10, raised against residues 1–17, at concentrations of 200–300 nM delayed significantly the aggregation of 50 μM amyloid peptide. The anti–Aβ antibody 4G8, raised against residues 17–24, was much less active in that respect, while the antibody A162, raised against the C-terminal residues 39–43 of the full-length Aβ was totally inactive at those concentrations. Concomitant with the aggregation experiments, we also measured the time dependency of the Aβ^1–40–induced toxicity toward SH-EP1 cells and hippocampal neurons, evaluated by SYTOX Green fluorescence, lactate dehydrogenase release, and activation of caspases. The extent of cell damage measured by all methods reached a maximum at the same time and this maximum coincided with that of the concentration of AM. According to the kinetic scheme, the latter is the only transient peptide species whose concentration passes through a maximum. Thus, it appears that the toxic species of Aβ^1–40 is most likely the same transient activated monomer that is responsible for the nucleation of fibril formation. These conclusions should provide a structural basis for understanding the toxicity of Aβ^1–40 in vitro and possibly in vivo.     

Modeling the effects of El Niño, density-dependence, and disturbance on harbor seal (Phoca vitulina) counts in Drakes Estero, California: 1997–2007

Harbor seal ( Phoca vitulina ) haul-out site use may be affected by natural or anthropogenic factors. Here, we use an 11-yr (1997–2007) study of a seal colony located near a mariculture operation in Drakes Estero, California, to test for natural (El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), density-dependence, long-term trends) and anthropogenic (disturbance or displacement related to oyster production activities) factors that may influence the use of haul-out subsites. Annual mariculture related seal disturbance rates increased significantly with increases in oyster harvest ( r _s= 0.55). Using generalized linear models (GLMs) ranked by best fit and Akaike's Information Criteria, ENSO and oyster production (as a proxy for disturbance/displacement) best explained the patterns of seal use at all three subsites near the mariculture operations, with effects being stronger at the two subsites closest to operations. Conversely, density-dependence and linear trend effects poorly explained the counts at these subsites. We conclude that a combination of ENSO and mariculture activities best explain the patterns of seal haul-out use during the breeding/pupping season at the seal haul-out sites closest to oyster activities.