Bayesian Monitoring of Emerging Infectious Diseases

We define data analyses to monitor a change in R, the average number of secondary cases caused by a typical infected individual. The input dataset consists of incident cases partitioned into outbreaks, each initiated from a single index case. We split the input dataset into two successive subsets, to evaluate two successive R values, according to the Bayesian paradigm. We used the Bayes factor between the model with two different R values and that with a single R value to justify that the change in R is statistically significant. We validated our approach using simulated data, generated using known R. In particular, we found that claiming two distinct R values may depend significantly on the number of outbreaks. We then reanalyzed data previously studied by Jansen et al. [Jansen et al. Science 301 (5634), 804], concerning the effective reproduction number for measles in the UK, during 1995–2002. Our analyses showed that the 1995–2002 dataset should be divided into two separate subsets for the periods 1995–1998 and 1999–2002. In contrast, Jansen et al. take this splitting point as input of their analysis. Our estimated effective reproduction numbers R are in good agreement with those found by Jansen et al. In conclusion, our methodology for detecting temporal changes in R using outbreak-size data worked satisfactorily with both simulated and real-world data. The methodology may be used for updating R in real time, as surveillance outbreak data become available.     

Partitioning glucose distribution/transport, disposal, and endogenous production during IVGTT

We have separated the effect of insulin on glucose distribution/transport, glucose disposal, and endogenous production (EGP) during an intravenous glucose tolerance test (IVGTT) by use of a dual-tracer dilution methodology. Six healthy lean male subjects (age 33 +/- 3 yr, body mass index 22.7 +/- 0.6 kg/m(2)) underwent a 4-h IVGTT (0.3 g/kg glucose enriched with 3-6% D-[U-(13)C]glucose and 5-10% 3-O-methyl-D-glucose) preceded by a 2-h investigation under basal conditions (5 mg/kg of D-[U-(13)C]glucose and 8 mg/kg of 3-O-methyl-D-glucose). A new model described the kinetics of the two glucose tracers and native glucose with the use of a two-compartment structure for glucose and a one-compartment structure for insulin effects. Insulin sensitivities of distribution/transport, disposal, and EGP were similar (11.5 +/- 3.8 vs. 10.4 +/- 3.9 vs. 11.1 +/- 2.7 x 10(-2) ml small middle dot kg(-1) small middle dot min(-1) per mU/l; P = nonsignificant, ANOVA). When expressed in terms of ability to lower glucose concentration, stimulation of disposal and stimulation of distribution/transport accounted each independently for 25 and 30%, respectively, of the overall effect. Suppression of EGP was more effective (P < 0.01, ANOVA) and accounted for 50% of the overall effect. EGP was suppressed by 70% (52-82%) (95% confidence interval relative to basal) within 60 min of the IVGTT; glucose distribution/transport was least responsive to insulin and was maximally activated by 62% (34-96%) above basal at 80 min compared with maximum 279% (116-565%) activation of glucose disposal at 20 min. The deactivation of glucose distribution/transport was slower than that of glucose disposal and EGP (P < 0.02) with half-times of 207 (84-510), 12 (7-22), and 29 (16-54) min, respectively. The minimal-model insulin sensitivity was tightly correlated with and linearly related to sensitivity of EGP (r = 0.96, P < 0.005) and correlated positively but nonsignificantly with distribution/transport sensitivity (r = 0.73, P = 0.10) and disposal sensitivity (r = 0.55, P = 0.26). We conclude that, in healthy subjects during an IVGTT, the two peripheral insulin effects account jointly for approximately one-half of the overall insulin-stimulated glucose lowering, each effect contributing equally. Suppression of EGP matches the effect in the periphery.     

The Role of Environmental Transmission in Recurrent Avian Influenza Epidemics

Avian influenza virus (AIV) persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2–4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host–pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size). Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2–4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year) are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.     

Role of environmental persistence in pathogen transmission: a mathematical modeling approach

Although diseases such as influenza, tuberculosis and SARS are transmitted through an environmentally mediated mechanism, most modeling work on these topics is based on the concepts of infectious contact and direct transmission. In this paper we use a paradigm model to show that environmental transmission appears like direct transmission in the case where the pathogen persists little time in the environment. Furthermore, we formulate conditions for the validity of this modeling approximation and we illustrate them numerically for the cases of cholera and influenza. According to our results based on recently published parameter estimates, the direct transmission approximation fails for both cholera and influenza. While environmental transmission is typically chosen over direct transmission in modeling cholera, this is not the case for influenza.     

Theory versus data: how to calculate R0?

To predict the potential severity of outbreaks of infectious diseases such as SARS, HIV, TB and smallpox, a summary parameter, the basic reproduction number R(0), is generally calculated from a population-level model. R(0) specifies the average number of secondary infections caused by one infected individual during his/her entire infectious period at the start of an outbreak. R(0) is used to assess the severity of the outbreak, as well as the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control. Conventionally, it is assumed that if R(0)>1 the outbreak generates an epidemic, and if R(0)<1 the outbreak becomes extinct. Here, we use computational and analytical methods to calculate the average number of secondary infections and to show that it does not necessarily represent an epidemic threshold parameter (as it has been generally assumed). Previously we have constructed a new type of individual-level model (ILM) and linked it with a population-level model. Our ILM generates the same temporal incidence and prevalence patterns as the population-level model; we use our ILM to directly calculate the average number of secondary infections (i.e., R(0)). Surprisingly, we find that this value of R(0) calculated from the ILM is very different from the epidemic threshold calculated from the population-level model. This occurs because many different individual-level processes can generate the same incidence and prevalence patterns. We show that obtaining R(0) from empirical contact tracing data collected by epidemiologists and using this R(0) as a threshold parameter for a population-level model could produce extremely misleading estimates of the infectiousness of the pathogen, the severity of an outbreak, and the strength of the medical and/or behavioral interventions necessary for control.     

A universal long-term flu vaccine may not prevent severe epidemics

Background

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a major public health problem in developing countries. HEV infection in pregnant women is more common and more often fatal in the third trimester. The mortality rate due to HEV-induced hepatitis is as high as 15-20 per cent. The present study was designed to determine the potential factors responsible for high mortality rate among pregnant women.

Findings

Twenty one pregnant women attended the Maternity Center of Begoua in the Central African Republic during an outbreak of hepatitis E virus between July and October 2002 with symptoms of acute liver disease. Their mean gestational period was 29.9 (SD 8.3 weeks) and they were aged from 15 to 39 years old. The serology IgM showed that seven women (33%) had acute hepatitis E. Among them, one woman, aged 35 and her newborn died after an apparently normal preterm delivery. The 6 remaining young women, age 18 - 22, had preterm deliveries which included three live babies and three stillborn with one macerated.

Conclusions

These results suggest that maternal age, in addition to hormonal, immunological and environmental factors, may be a risk factor for fatal outcome.     

Calcium Fructoborate Helps Control Inflammation Associated with Diminished Bone Health

Inflammation has been identified as a possible contributory factor to disruption of the normal bone remodeling process, a process essential to healthy bone mineral density. Several large population-based clinical studies have specifically shown that levels of C-reactive protein, an immune recognition protein that is a sensitive marker of inflammation, are inversely and independently associated with total bone mineral density. The evidence suggests that control of C-reactive protein levels may contribute to bone health by protecting against inflammation’s disruption of the equilibrium between bone resorption and bone deposition. Calcium fructoborate, a patented complex of calcium, fructose, and boron found naturally in fresh and dried fruits, vegetables and herbs, and wine, is a sugar-borate ester. A growing body of peer-reviewed, published clinical research indicates that the calcium fructoborate significantly reduces serum levels of the C-reactive protein in humans, suggesting that this unique plant–mineral complex may contribute to bone health by controlling the inflammation associated with loss of bone mineral density.     

Health newscasts for increasing influenza vaccination coverage: an inductive reasoning game approach

Both pandemic and seasonal influenza are receiving more attention from mass media than ever before. Topics such as epidemic severity and vaccination are changing the way in which we perceive the utility of disease prevention. Voluntary influenza vaccination has been recently modeled using inductive reasoning games. It has thus been found that severe epidemics may occur because individuals do not vaccinate and, instead, attempt to benefit from the immunity of their peers. Such epidemics could be prevented by voluntary vaccination if incentives were offered. However, a key assumption has been that individuals make vaccination decisions based on whether there was an epidemic each influenza season; no other epidemiological information is available to them. In this work, we relax this assumption and investigate the consequences of making more informed vaccination decisions while no incentives are offered. We obtain three major results. First, individuals will not cooperate enough to constantly prevent influenza epidemics through voluntary vaccination no matter how much they learned about influenza epidemiology. Second, broadcasting epidemiological information richer than whether an epidemic occurred may stabilize the vaccination coverage and suppress severe influenza epidemics. Third, the stable vaccination coverage follows the trend of the perceived benefit of vaccination. However, increasing the amount of epidemiological information released to the public may either increase or decrease the perceived benefit of vaccination. We discuss three scenarios where individuals know, in addition to whether there was an epidemic, (i) the incidence, (ii) the vaccination coverage and (iii) both the incidence and the vaccination coverage, every influenza season. We show that broadcasting both the incidence and the vaccination coverage could yield either better or worse vaccination coverage than broadcasting each piece of information on its own.     

Snakebite mortality in India: a nationally representative mortality survey

Background

India has long been thought to have more snakebites than any other country. However, inadequate hospital-based reporting has resulted in estimates of total annual snakebite mortality ranging widely from about 1,300 to 50,000. We calculated direct estimates of snakebite mortality from a national mortality survey.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a nationally representative study of 123,000 deaths from 6,671 randomly selected areas in 2001–03. Full-time, non-medical field workers interviewed living respondents about all deaths. The underlying causes were independently coded by two of 130 trained physicians. Discrepancies were resolved by anonymous reconciliation or, failing that, by adjudication.A total of 562 deaths (0.47% of total deaths) were assigned to snakebites. Snakebite deaths occurred mostly in rural areas (97%), were more common in males (59%) than females (41%), and peaked at ages 15–29 years (25%) and during the monsoon months of June to September. This proportion represents about 45,900 annual snakebite deaths nationally (99% CI 40,900 to 50,900) or an annual age-standardised rate of 4.1/100,000 (99% CI 3.6–4.5), with higher rates in rural areas (5.4/100,000; 99% CI 4.8–6.0), and with the highest state rate in Andhra Pradesh (6.2). Annual snakebite deaths were greatest in the states of Uttar Pradesh (8,700), Andhra Pradesh (5,200), and Bihar (4,500).

Conclusions

Snakebite remains an underestimated cause of accidental death in modern India. Because a large proportion of global totals of snakebites arise from India, global snakebite totals might also be underestimated. Community education, appropriate training of medical staff and better distribution of antivenom, especially to the 13 states with the highest prevalence, could reduce snakebite deaths in India.     

Genetic diversity and population structure of the endangered ripon barbel,Barbus altianalis (Boulenger, 1900) in Lake Victoria catchment,Kenya based on mitochondrial DNA sequences

Approximately 850 bp of the mitochondrial control region was used to assess the genetic diversity, population structure and demographic expansion of the endangered cyprinid Barbus altianalis, a species known to be potamodramous in the Lake Victoria drainage system. The 196 samples taken from the four main rivers draining the Lake Victoria catchment (Nzoia, Yala, Nyando and Sondu–Miriu) yielded 49 mitochondrial DNA haplotypes; 83.7% thereof were private haplotypes restricted to particular rivers. The overall mean haplotype diversity was high (0.93663 ± 0.008) and ranged between 0.566 (Sondu – Miriu) and 0.944 (Nzoia). The overall mean nucleotide diversity was low (0.01322 ± 0.00141), ranging from 0.0342 (Sondu – Miriu) to 0.0267 (Nzoia). Population differentiation tests revealed strong and highly significant (P ≤ 0.001) segregation of populations in the four river basins. F_ST values among the four river‐based populations ranged from 0.05202 to 0.44352. The samples formed two main haplotype networks based on a 95% parsimony criterion, each exhibiting a strong signature of past population expansion. The smaller network was restricted to the River Nzoia, whereas the larger network contained representatives from all four rivers; within this the central haplotypes were found in more than one river, whereas the peripheral haplotypes tended to be river‐specific. The degree of population differentiation and the number of river‐specific haplotypes are too high to be explained by recent anthropogenic impacts alone and suggest that the species has probably existed in the Lake Victoria catchment as two populations: the now ‘extinct’ migratory population and the extant river restricted non‐migratory populations.