Testing the relationship between morphological and molecular rates of change along phylogenies

Abstract.— Molecular evolution has been considered to be essentially a stochastic process, little influenced by the pace of phenotypic change. This assumption was challenged by a study that demonstrated an association between rates of morphological and molecular change estimated for "total-evidence" phylogenies, a finding that led some researchers to challenge molecular date estimates of major evolutionary radiations. Here we show that Omland's (1997) result is probably due to methodological bias, particularly phylogenetic nonindependence, rather than being indicative of an underlying evolutionary phenomenon. We apply three new methods specifically designed to overcome phylogenetic bias to 13 published phylogenetic datasets for vertebrate taxa, each of which includes both morphological characters and DNA sequence data. We find no evidence of an association between rates of molecular and morphological rates of change.     

The epidemiology and iatrogenic transmission of hepatitis C virus in Egypt: a Bayesian coalescent approach

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a leading cause of liver cancer and cirrhosis, and Egypt has possibly the highest HCV prevalence worldwide. In this article we use a newly developed Bayesian inference framework to estimate the transmission dynamics of HCV in Egypt from sampled viral gene sequences, and to predict the public health impact of the virus. Our results indicate that the effective number of HCV infections in Egypt underwent rapid exponential growth between 1930 and 1955. The timing and speed of this spread provides quantitative genetic evidence that the Egyptian HCV epidemic was initiated and propagated by extensive antischistosomiasis injection campaigns. Although our results show that HCV transmission has since decreased, we conclude that HCV is likely to remain prevalent in Egypt for several decades. Our combined population genetic and epidemiological analysis provides detailed estimates of historical changes in Egyptian HCV prevalence. Because our results are consistent with a demographic scenario specified a priori, they also provide an objective test of inference methods based on the coalescent process.     

Estimating the rate of molecular evolution: incorporating non-contemporaneous sequences into maximum likelihood phylogenies

MOTIVATION: TipDate is a program that will use sequences that have been isolated at different dates to estimate their rate of molecular evolution. The program provides a maximum likelihood estimate of the rate and also the associated date of the most recent common ancestor of the sequences, under a model which assumes a constant rate of substitution (molecular clock) but which accommodates the dates of isolation. Confidence intervals for these parameters are also estimated. Results: The approach was applied to a sample of 17 dengue virus serotype 4 sequences, isolated at dates ranging from 1956 to 1994. The rate of substitution for this serotype was estimated to be 7.91 x 10(-4) substitutions per site per year (95% confidence intervals of 6.07 x 10(-4), 9.86 x 10(-4)). This is compatible with a date of 1922 (95% confidence intervals of 1900-1936) for the most recent common ancestor of these sequences. AVAILABILITY: TipDate can be obtained by WWW from http://evolve.zoo. ox.ac.uk/software. The package includes the source code, manual and example files. Both UNIX and Apple Macintosh versions are available from the same site.     

Phylogenetic extinction rates and comparative methodology

Species are not independent points for comparative analyses because closely related species share more evolutionary history and are therefore more similar to each other than distantly related species. The extent to which independent-contrast analysis reduces type I and type II statistical error in comparison with cross-species analysis depends on the relative branch lengths in the phylogenetic tree: as deeper branches get relatively long, cross-species analyses have more statistical type I and type II error. Phylogenetic trees reconstructed from extant species, under the assumptions of a branching process with speciation (branching) and extinction rates remaining constant through time, will have relatively longer deep branches as the extinction rate increases relative to the speciation rate. We compare the statistical performance of cross-species and independent-contrast analyses with varying relative extinction rates, and conclude that cross-species comparisons have unacceptable statistical performance, particularly when extinction rates are relatively high.     

Phylodynamics and human-mediated dispersal of a zoonotic virus

Understanding the role of humans in the dispersal of predominantly animal pathogens is essential for their control. We used newly developed Bayesian phylogeographic methods to unravel the dynamics and determinants of the spread of dog rabies virus (RABV) in North Africa. Each of the countries studied exhibited largely disconnected spatial dynamics with major geopolitical boundaries acting as barriers to gene flow. Road distances proved to be better predictors of the movement of dog RABV than accessibility or raw geographical distance, with occasional long distance and rapid spread within each of these countries. Using simulations that bridge phylodynamics and spatial epidemiology, we demonstrate that the contemporary viral distribution extends beyond that expected for RABV transmission in African dog populations. These results are strongly supportive of human-mediated dispersal, and demonstrate how an integrated phylogeographic approach will turn viral genetic data into a powerful asset for characterizing, predicting, and potentially controlling the spatial spread of pathogens.     

The evolutionary analysis of emerging low frequency HIV-1 CXCR4 using variants through time--an ultra-deep approach

Large-scale parallel pyrosequencing produces unprecedented quantities of sequence data. However, when generated from viral populations current mapping software is inadequate for dealing with the high levels of variation present, resulting in the potential for biased data loss. In order to apply the 454 Life Sciences' pyrosequencing system to the study of viral populations, we have developed software for the processing of highly variable sequence data. Here we demonstrate our software by analyzing two temporally sampled HIV-1 intra-patient datasets from a clinical study of maraviroc. This drug binds the CCR5 coreceptor, thus preventing HIV-1 infection of the cell. The objective is to determine viral tropism (CCR5 versus CXCR4 usage) and track the evolution of minority CXCR4-using variants that may limit the response to a maraviroc-containing treatment regimen. Five time points (two prior to treatment) were available from each patient. We first quantify the effects of divergence on initial read k-mer mapping and demonstrate the importance of utilizing population-specific template sequences in relation to the analysis of next-generation sequence data. Then, in conjunction with coreceptor prediction algorithms that infer HIV tropism, our software was used to quantify the viral population structure pre- and post-treatment. In both cases, low frequency CXCR4-using variants (2.5-15%) were detected prior to treatment. Following phylogenetic inference, these variants were observed to exist as distinct lineages that were maintained through time. Our analysis, thus confirms the role of pre-existing CXCR4-using virus in the emergence of maraviroc-insensitive HIV. The software will have utility for the study of intra-host viral diversity and evolution of other fast evolving viruses, and is available from http://www.bioinf.manchester.ac.uk/segminator/.     

BEAST: Bayesian evolutionary analysis by sampling trees

Background  

The evolutionary analysis of molecular sequence variation is a statistical enterprise. This is reflected in the increased use of probabilistic models for phylogenetic inference, multiple sequence alignment, and molecular population genetics. Here we present BEAST: a fast, flexible software architecture for Bayesian analysis of molecular sequences related by an evolutionary tree. A large number of popular stochastic models of sequence evolution are provided and tree-based models suitable for both within- and between-species sequence data are implemented.     

Endemic dengue associated with the co-circulation of multiple viral lineages and localized density-dependent transmission

Dengue is one of the most important infectious diseases of humans and has spread throughout much of the tropical and subtropical world. Despite this widespread dispersal, the determinants of dengue transmission in endemic populations are not well understood, although essential for virus control. To address this issue we performed a phylogeographic analysis of 751 complete genome sequences of dengue 1 virus (DENV-1) sampled from both rural (Dong Thap) and urban (Ho Chi Minh City) populations in southern Viet Nam during the period 2003-2008. We show that DENV-1 in Viet Nam exhibits strong spatial clustering, with likely importation from Cambodia on multiple occasions. Notably, multiple lineages of DENV-1 co-circulated in Ho Chi Minh City. That these lineages emerged at approximately the same time and dispersed over similar spatial regions suggests that they are of broadly equivalent fitness. We also observed an important relationship between the density of the human host population and the dispersion rate of dengue, such that DENV-1 tends to move from urban to rural populations, and that densely populated regions within Ho Chi Minh City act as major transmission foci. Despite these fluid dynamics, the dispersion rates of DENV-1 are relatively low, particularly in Ho Chi Minh City where the virus moves less than an average of 20 km/year. These low rates suggest a major role for mosquito-mediated dispersal, such that DENV-1 does not need to move great distances to infect a new host when there are abundant susceptibles, and imply that control measures should be directed toward the most densely populated urban environments.     

The molecular population genetics of HIV-1 group O

HIV-1 group O originated through cross-species transmission of SIV from chimpanzees to humans and has established a relatively low prevalence in Central Africa. Here, we infer the population genetics and epidemic history of HIV-1 group O from viral gene sequence data and evaluate the effect of variable evolutionary rates and recombination on our estimates. First, model selection tools were used to specify suitable evolutionary and coalescent models for HIV group O. Second, divergence times and population genetic parameters were estimated in a Bayesian framework using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, under both strict and relaxed molecular clock methods. Our results date the origin of the group O radiation to around 1920 (1890-1940), a time frame similar to that estimated for HIV-1 group M. However, group O infections, which remain almost wholly restricted to Cameroon, show a slower rate of exponential growth during the twentieth century, explaining their lower current prevalence. To explore the effect of recombination, the Bayesian framework is extended to incorporate multiple unlinked loci. Although recombination can bias estimates of the time to the most recent common ancestor, this effect does not appear to be important for HIV-1 group O. In addition, we show that evolutionary rate estimates for different HIV genes accurately reflect differential selective constraints along the HIV genome.