Adverse effects of agricultural intensification and climate change on breeding habitat quality of Black‐tailed Godwits Limosa l. limosa in the Netherlands

Agricultural intensification is one of the main drivers of farmland bird declines, but effects on birds may be confounded with those of climate change. Here we examine the effects of intensification and climate change on a grassland breeding wader, the Black‐tailed Godwit Limosa l. limosa, in the Netherlands. Population decline has been linked to poor chick survival which, in turn, has been linked to available foraging habitat. Foraging habitat of the nidifugous chicks consists of uncut grasslands that provide cover and arthropod prey. Conservation measures such as agri‐environment schemes aim to increase the availability of chick foraging habitat but have not yet been successful in halting the decline. Field observations show that since the early 1980s, farmers advanced their first seasonal mowing or grazing date by 15 days, whereas Godwits did not advance their hatching date. Ringing data indicate that between 1945 and 1975 hatching dates advanced by about 2 weeks in parallel with the advancement of median mowing dates. Surprisingly, temperature sums at median mowing and hatching dates suggest that while the agricultural advancement before 1980 was largely due to agricultural intensification, after 1980 it was largely due to climate change. Examining arthropod abundance in a range of differently managed grasslands revealed that chick food abundance was little affected but that food accessibility in intensively used tall swards may be problematic for chicks. Our results suggest that, compared with 25 years ago, nowadays (1) a much higher proportion of clutches and chicks are exposed to agricultural activities, (2) there is little foraging habitat left when chicks hatch and (3) because of climate change, the vegetation in the remaining foraging habitat is taller and denser and therefore of lower quality. This indicates that for agri‐environment schemes to make a difference, they should not only be implemented in a larger percentage of the breeding area than the current maxima of 20–30% but they should also include measures that create more open, accessible swards.     

Microscale vegetation-soil feedback boosts hysteresis in a regional vegetation–climate system

It has been hypothesized that a positive feedback between vegetation cover and monsoon circulation may lead to the existence of two alternative stable states in the Sahara region: a vegetated state with moderate precipitation and a desert state with low precipitation. This could explain the sudden onset of desertification in the region about 5000 years ago. However, other models suggest that the effect of vegetation on the precipitation may be insufficient to produce this behavior. Here, we show that inclusion of the microscale feedback between soil and vegetation in the model greatly amplifies the nonlinearity, causing alternative stable states and considerable hysteresis even if the effect of vegetation on precipitation is moderate. On the other hand, our analysis suggests that self‐organized vegetation patterns known from models that only focus at the microscale plant–soil feedback will be limited to a narrower range of conditions due to the regional scale climate‐feedback. This implies that in monsoon areas such as the Western Sahara self‐organized vegetation patterns are predicted to be less common than in areas without monsoon circulation such as Central Australia.     

The landscape ecological approach in bird conservation: integrating the metapopulation concept into spatial planning

In The Netherlands, fragmentation of (semi)natural ecosystems is regarded as a major nature conservation problem. The current Dutch Nature Conservation Policy Plan proposes a spatial network consisting of existing nature reserves, nature redevelopment areas and corridor zones. One of the objectives is to stop the assumed decline of biodiversity due to fragmentation. In this contribution we show that breeding birds are affected by the spatial distribution of their habitat. We also show how problems due to fragmentation can be solved by integrating landscape ecological research data Into planning procedures. Fragmented bird populations show metapopulation characteristics, dependent on the degree of fragmentation. This can be concluded from pattern studies, in which presence or absence patterns are correlated with spatial characteristics. Metapopulation dynamics were used, and the frequency of local extinction and of recolonization were related to size of habitat patches and spatial position in the landscape. The conclusion is that, depending on the spatial scale, landscape fragmentation is a threat to birds. On the basis of empirical data, statistical and metapopulation models are being developed to be used to evaluate spatial planning scenarios and to support decision making about which scenario is closest to the planning aims.