Predicting the unexpected: using a qualitative model of a New Zealand dryland ecosystem to anticipate pest management outcomes

Pest management is expensive and there is often uncertainty about the benefits for the resources being protected. There can also be unintended consequences for other parts of the ecosystem, especially in complex food webs. In making decisions managers generally have to rely on qualitative information collected in a piecemeal fashion. A method to assist decision making is a qualitative modelling approach using fuzzy cognitive maps, a directed graphical model related to neural networks that can take account of interactions between pests and conservation assets in complex food webs. Using all available information on relationships between native and exotic resources and consumers, we generated hypotheses about potential consequences of single‐species and multi‐species pest control on the long‐term equilibrium abundances of other biotic components of an ecosystem. We applied the model to a dryland ecosystem in New Zealand because we had good information on its trophic structure, but the information on the strength of species interactions was imprecise. Our model suggested that pest control is unlikely to significantly boost native invertebrates and lizards in this ecosystem, suggesting that other forms of management may be required for these groups. Most of the pest control regimes tested resulted in greater abundances of at least one other pest species, which could potentially lead to other management problems. Some of the predictions were unexpected, such as more birds resulting from possum and mouse control. We also modelled the effects of an increase in invasive rabbits, which led to unexpected declines of stoats, weasels, mice and possums. These unexpected outcomes resulted from complex indirect pathways in the food web. Fuzzy cognitive maps allow rapid construction of prototype models of complex food webs using a wide range of data and expert opinion. Their utility lies in providing direction for future monitoring efforts and generating hypotheses that can be tested with field experiments.     

Microbial composition affects the functioning of estuarine sediments

Although microorganisms largely drive many ecosystem processes, the relationship between microbial composition and their functioning remains unclear. To tease apart the effects of composition and the environment directly, microbial composition must be manipulated and maintained, ideally in a natural ecosystem. In this study, we aimed to test whether variability in microbial composition affects functional processes in a field setting, by reciprocally transplanting riverbed sediments between low- and high-salinity locations along the Nonesuch River (Maine, USA). We placed the sediments into microbial ‘cages'' to prevent the migration of microorganisms, while allowing the sediments to experience the abiotic conditions of the surroundings. We performed two experiments, short- (1 week) and long-term (7 weeks) reciprocal transplants, after which we assayed a variety of functional processes in the cages. In both experiments, we examined the composition of bacteria generally (targeting the 16S rDNA gene) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) specifically (targeting the dsrAB gene) using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP). In the short-term experiment, sediment processes (CO₂ production, CH₄ flux, nitrification and enzyme activities) depended on both the sediment''s origin (reflecting differences in microbial composition between salt and freshwater sediments) and the surrounding environment. In the long-term experiment, general bacterial composition (but not SRB composition) shifted in response to their new environment, and this composition was significantly correlated with sediment functioning. Further, sediment origin had a diminished effect, relative to the short-term experiment, on sediment processes. Overall, this study provides direct evidence that microbial composition directly affects functional processes in these sediments.     

Impact of climate change on vector transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi (Chagas, 1909) in North America

Climate change can influence the geographical range of the ecological niche of pathogens by altering biotic interactions with vectors and reservoirs. The distributions of 20 epidemiologically important triatomine species in North America were modelled, comparing the genetic algorithm for rule‐set prediction (GARP) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt), with or without topographical variables. Potential shifts in transmission niche for Trypanosoma cruzi (Trypanosomatida: Trypanosomatidae) (Chagas, 1909) were analysed for 2050 and 2070 in Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. There were no significant quantitative range differences between the GARP and MaxEnt models, but GARP models best represented known distributions for most species [partial‐receiver operating characteristic (ROC) > 1]; elevation was an important variable contributing to the ecological niche model (ENM). There was little difference between niche breadth projections for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5; the majority of species shifted significantly in both periods. Those species with the greatest current distribution range are expected to have the greatest shifts. Positional changes in the centroid, although reduced for most species, were associated with latitude. A significant increase or decrease in mean niche elevation is expected principally for Neotropical 1 species. The impact of climate change will be specific to each species, its biogeographical region and its latitude. North American triatomines with the greatest current distribution ranges (Nearctic 2 and Nearctic/Neotropical) will have the greatest future distribution shifts. Significant shifts (increases or decreases) in mean elevation over time are projected principally for the Neotropical species with the broadest current distributions. Changes in the vector exposure threat to the human population were significant for both future periods, with a 1.48% increase for urban populations and a 1.76% increase for rural populations in 2050.     

Behavioural and electrophysiological responses of Triatoma dimidiata nymphs to conspecific faecal volatiles

The behavioural and electrophysiological (electroantennography) responses of the first two instars of Triatoma dimidiata (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) Latreille to fresh and dry faecal headspace volatile extracts from fifth instar conspecific nymphs and synthetic compounds were analysed in this study. Recently emerged nymphs (3–5 days) aggregated around filter paper impregnated with dry faeces and around filter paper impregnated with extracts from both fresh and dry faeces. Older first instars (10–15 days) and second instars aggregated around filter paper impregnated with fresh and dry faeces, and their respective headspace extracts. Dry faecal volatile extracts elicited the strongest antennal responses, followed by fresh faecal extracts. Gas chromatography?mass spectrometry analysis of dried faecal headspace volatiles demonstrated the presence of 12 compounds: 2‐ethyl‐1‐hexanol, 1,2,4‐trimethylbenzene, n ‐octadecane, n ‐nonadecane, n ‐eicosane, n ‐heneicosane, n ‐tricosane, n ‐pentaeicosane, n ‐hexaeicosane, n ‐octaeicosane, nonanal, and 4‐methyl quinazoline. In fresh faecal headspace extracts, only nonanal was clearly detected, although there were other trace compounds, including several unidentified sesquiterpenes. Four of the 11 compounds tested individually elicited aggregation behaviour at concentrations of 100 ng/µL and 1 µg/µL. A blend containing these four components also mediated the aggregation of nymphs. These volatiles may be valuable for developing monitoring methods and designing sensitive strategies to detect and measure T. dimidiata infestation.     

Diminished transmission of drug resistant HIV-1 variants with reduced replication capacity in a human transmission model

Background

Different patterns of drug resistance are observed in treated and therapy naïve HIV-1 infected populations. Especially the NRTI-related M184I/V variants, which are among the most frequently encountered mutations in treated patients, are underrepresented in the antiretroviral naïve population. M184I/V mutations are known to have a profound effect on viral replication and tend to revert over time in the new host. However it is debated whether a diminished transmission efficacy of HIV variants with a reduced replication capacity can also contribute to the observed discrepancy in genotypic patterns.As dendritic cells (DCs) play a pivotal role in HIV-1 transmission, we used a model containing primary human Langerhans cells (LCs) and DCs to compare the transmission efficacy M184 variants (HIV-M184V/I/T) to HIV wild type (HIV-WT). As control, we used HIV harboring the NNRTI mutation K103N (HIV-K103N) which has a minor effect on replication and is found at a similar prevalence in treated and untreated individuals.

Results

In comparison to HIV-WT, the HIV-M184 variants were less efficiently transmitted to CCR5⁺ Jurkat T cells by both LCs and DCs. The transmission rate of HIV-K103N was slightly reduced to HIV-WT in LCs and even higher than HIV-WT in DCs. Replication experiments in CCR5⁺ Jurkat T cells revealed no apparent differences in replication capacity between the mutant viruses and HIV-WT. However, viral replication in LCs and DCs was in concordance with the transmission results; replication by the HIV-M184 variants was lower than replication by HIV-WT, and the level of replication of HIV-K103N was intermediate for LCs and higher than HIV-WT for DCs.

Conclusions

Our data demonstrate that drug resistant M184-variants display a reduced replication capacity in LCs and DCs which directly impairs their transmission efficacy. As such, diminished transmission efficacy may contribute to the lower prevalence of drug resistant variants in therapy naive individuals.