Phylogeny of Greya (Lepidoptera: Prodoxidae), based on nucleotide sequence variation in mitochondrial cytochrome oxidase I and II: congruence with morphological data

The phylogeny of Greya Busck (Lepidoptera: Prodoxidae) was inferred from nucleotide sequence variation across a 765-bp region in the cytochrome oxidase I and II genes of the mitochondrial genome. Most parsimonious relationships of 25 haplotypes from 16 Greya species and two outgroup genera (Tetragma and Prodoxus) showed substantial congruence with the species relationships indicated by morphological variation. Differences between mitochondrial and morphological trees were found primarily in the positions of two species, G. variabilis and G. pectinifera, and in the branching order of the three major species groups in the genus. Conflicts between the data sets were examined by comparing levels of homoplasy in characters supporting alternative hypotheses. The phylogeny of Greya species suggests that host-plant association at the family level and larval feeding mode are conservative characters. Transition/transversion ratios estimated by reconstruction of nucleotide substitutions on the phylogeny had a range of 2.0-9.3, when different subsets of the phylogeny were used. The decline of this ratio with the increase in maximum sequence divergence among taxa indicates that transitions are masked by transversions along deeper internodes or long branches of the phylogeny. Among transitions, substitutions of A-->G and T-->C outnumbered their reciprocal substitutions by 2-6 times, presumably because of the approximately 4:1 (77%) A+T-bias in nucleotide base composition. Of all transversions, 73%-80% were A<-->T substitutions, 85% of which occurred at third positions of codons; these estimates did not decrease with an increase in maximum sequence divergence of taxa included in the analysis. The high frequency of A<-->T substitutions is either a reflection or an explanation of the 92% A+T bias at third codon positions.      

Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century

Dryland ecosystems may be especially vulnerable to expected 21st century increases in temperature and aridity because they are tightly controlled by moisture availability. However, climate impact assessments in drylands are difficult because ecological dynamics are dictated by drought conditions that are difficult to define and complex to estimate from climate conditions alone. In addition, precipitation projections vary substantially among climate models, enhancing variation in overall trajectories for aridity. Here, we constrain this uncertainty by utilizing an ecosystem water balance model to quantify drought conditions with recognized ecological importance, and by identifying changes in ecological drought conditions that are robust among climate models, defined here as when >90% of models agree in the direction of change. Despite limited evidence for robust changes in precipitation, changes in ecological drought are robust over large portions of drylands in the United States and Canada. Our results suggest strong regional differences in long‐term drought trajectories, epitomized by chronic drought increases in southern areas, notably the Upper Gila Mountains and South‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies, and decreases in the north, particularly portions of the Temperate and West‐Central Semi‐arid Prairies. However, we also found that exposure to hot‐dry stress is increasing faster than mean annual temperature over most of these drylands, and those increases are greatest in northern areas. Robust shifts in seasonal drought are most apparent during the cool season; when soil water availability is projected to increase in northern regions and decrease in southern regions. The implications of these robust drought trajectories for ecosystems will vary geographically, and these results provide useful insights about the impact of climate change on these dryland ecosystems. More broadly, this approach of identifying robust changes in ecological drought may be useful for other assessments of climate impacts in drylands and provide a more rigorous foundation for making long‐term strategic resource management decisions.