Insights into the Evolution and Emergence of a Novel Infectious Disease

Many zoonotic, novel infectious diseases in humans appear as sporadic infections with spatially and temporally restricted outbreaks, as seen with influenza A(H5N1). Adaptation is often a key factor for successfully establishing sustained human-to-human transmission. Here we use simple mathematical models to describe different adaptation scenarios with particular reference to spatial heterogeneity within the human population. We present analytical expressions for the probability of emergence per introduction, as well as the waiting time to a successful emergence event. Furthermore, we derive general analytical results for the statistical properties of emergence events, including the probability distribution of outbreak sizes. We compare our analytical results with a stochastic model, which has previously been studied computationally. Our results suggest that, for typical connection strengths between communities, spatial heterogeneity has only a weak effect on outbreak size distributions, and on the risk of emergence per introduction. For example, if or larger, any village connected to a large city by just ten commuters a day is, effectively, just a part of the city when considering the chances of emergence and the outbreak size distribution. We present empirical data on commuting patterns and show that the vast majority of communities for which such data are available are at least this well interconnected. For plausible parameter ranges, the effects of spatial heterogeneity are likely to be dominated by the evolutionary biology of host adaptation. We conclude by discussing implications for surveillance and control of emerging infections.     

Comparative molecular dynamics—Similar folds and similar motions?

Proteins possessing the same fold may undergo similar motions, particularly if these motions involve large conformational transitions. The increasing amounts of structural data provide a useful starting point with which to test this hypothesis. We have performed a total of 0.29 micros of molecular dynamics across a series of proteins within the same fold family (periplasmic binding proteinlike) in order to address to what extent similarity of motion exists. Analysis of the local conformational space on these timescales (10-20 ns) revealed that the behavior of the proteins could be readily distinguished between an apo-state and a ligand-bound state. Moreover, analysis of the root-mean-square fluctuations reveals that the presence of the ligand exerts a stabilizing effect on the protein, with similar motions occurring, but with reduced magnitude. Furthermore, the conformational space in the presence of the ligand appears to be dictated by sequence but not by the type of ligand present. In contrast, apo-simulations showed considerable overlap of conformational space across the fold as a result of their ability to undergo larger fluctuations. Indeed, we observed several transitions from different simulations between states corresponding to the closed-cleft and open-cleft forms of the fold, with the predominant motions being conserved across the different proteins. Thus, large-scale conformational changes do indeed appear to be conserved across this fold architecture, but smaller conformational motions appear to reflect the differences in sequence and local fold.     

A two-state model for Ca2+/CaM-dependent protein kinase II (alphaCaMKII) in response to persistent Ca2+ stimulation in hippocampal neurons

Persistent elevation of the intracellular free Ca(2+) concentration [Ca(2+)](i) is neurotoxic and therefore it is important to understand how it affects downstream components of the Ca(2+) signaling pathway. The response of calmodulin (CaM) and alphaCa(2+)/CaM-dependent protein kinase II (alphaCaMKII), to intracellular Ca(2+) overload in hippocampal neurons is studied by confocal imaging of fluorescently tagged proteins. Transient and persistent redistribution of CaM and alphaCaMKII together is seen from the cytosol to dendritic and somatic punctae. Typical persistent redistribution occurs following a lag of 138+/-(S.E.M.) 12 s and is complete at 460+/-(S.E.M.) 34 s (n=18), lack of Thr(286)-autophosphorylation of alphaCaMKII however promotes the formation of early transient punctae (peak at 40 s). In contrast, the T286D-mimick of phospho-Thr(286)-alphaCaMKII forms punctae with a delay >10 min, indicating that Thr(286)-autophosphorylation is antagonistic to CaMKII clustering. A two-state model is proposed in which phospho-Thr(286)-alphaCaMKII, formed immediately upon Ca(2+) stimulation, is primarily responsible for target interactions and memory functions of alphaCaMKII. However, a distinct clustering form denoted alphaCaMKII(c), generated upon persistent intracellular free Ca(2+) elevation, is deposited in the punctae which are made of self-interacting CaM/CaMKII complexes. Punctate deposition disables both the interactions and the activity of CaMKII.     

Generation of human embryonic stem cell-derived mesoderm and cardiac cells using size-specified aggregates in an oxygen-controlled bioreactor

The ability to generate human pluripotent stem cell-derived cell types at sufficiently high numbers and in a reproducible manner is fundamental for clinical and biopharmaceutical applications. Current experimental methods for the differentiation of pluripotent cells such as human embryonic stem cells (hESC) rely on the generation of heterogeneous aggregates of cells, also called "embryoid bodies" (EBs), in small scale static culture. These protocols are typically (1) not scalable, (2) result in a wide range of EB sizes and (3) expose cells to fluctuations in physicochemical parameters. With the goal of establishing a robust bioprocess we first screened different scalable suspension systems for their ability to support the growth and differentiation of hESCs. Next homogeneity of initial cell aggregates was improved by employing a micro-printing strategy to generate large numbers of size-specified hESC aggregates. Finally, these technologies were integrated into a fully controlled bioreactor system and the impact of oxygen concentration was investigated. Our results demonstrate the beneficial effects of stirred bioreactor culture, aggregate size-control and hypoxia (4% oxygen tension) on both cell growth and cell differentiation towards cardiomyocytes. QRT-PCR data for markers such as Brachyury, LIM domain homeobox gene Isl-1, Troponin T and Myosin Light Chain 2v, as well as immunohistochemistry and functional analysis by response to chronotropic agents, documented the impact of these parameters on cardiac differentiation. This study provides an important foundation towards the robust generation of clinically relevant numbers of hESC derived cells.     

Dynamics of glycoprotein charge in the evolutionary history of human influenza

Background

Influenza viruses show a significant capacity to evade host immunity; this is manifest both as large occasional jumps in the antigenic phenotype of viral surface molecules and in gradual antigenic changes leading to annual influenza epidemics in humans. Recent mouse studies show that avidity for host cells can play an important role in polyclonal antibody escape, and further that electrostatic charge of the hemagglutinin glycoprotein can contribute to such avidity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We test the role of glycoprotein charge on sequence data from the three major subtypes of influenza A in humans, using a simple method of calculating net glycoprotein charge. Of all subtypes, H3N2 in humans shows a striking pattern of increasing positive charge since its introduction in 1968. Notably, this trend applies to both hemagglutinin and neuraminidase glycoproteins. In the late 1980s hemagglutinin charge reached a plateau, while neuraminidase charge started to decline. We identify key groups of amino acid sites involved in this charge trend.

Conclusions/Significance

To our knowledge these are the first indications that, for human H3N2, net glycoprotein charge covaries strongly with antigenic drift on a global scale. Further work is needed to elucidate how such charge interacts with other immune escape mechanisms, such as glycosylation, and we discuss important questions arising for future study.     

Contact Heterogeneity,Rather Than Transmission Efficiency,Limits the Emergence and Spread of Canine Influenza Virus

Host-range shifts in influenza virus are a major risk factor for pandemics. A key question in the study of emerging zoonoses is how the evolution of transmission efficiency interacts with heterogeneity in contact patterns in the new host species, as this interplay influences disease dynamics and prospects for control. Here we use a synergistic mixture of models and data to tease apart the evolutionary and demographic processes controlling a host-range shift in equine H3N8-derived canine influenza virus (CIV). CIV has experienced 15 years of continuous transfer among dogs in the United States, but maintains a patchy distribution, characterized by sporadic short-lived outbreaks coupled with endemic hotspots in large animal shelters. We show that CIV has a high reproductive potential in these facilities (mean R₀ = 3.9) and that these hotspots act as refugia from the sparsely connected majority of the dog population. Intriguingly, CIV has evolved a transmission efficiency that closely matches the minimum required to persist in these refugia, leaving it poised on the extinction/invasion threshold of the host contact network. Corresponding phylogenetic analyses show strong geographic clustering in three US regions, and that the effective reproductive number of the virus (R_e) in the general dog population is close to 1.0. Our results highlight the critical role of host contact structure in CIV dynamics, and show how host contact networks could shape the evolution of pathogen transmission efficiency. Importantly, efficient control measures could eradicate the virus, in turn minimizing the risk of future sustained transmission among companion dogs that could represent a potential new axis to the human-animal interface for influenza.     

Molecular dynamics simulations of the ligand-binding domain of the ionotropic glutamate receptor GluR2.

Ionotropic glutamate receptors are essential for fast synaptic nerve transmission. Recent x-ray structures for the ligand-binding (S1S2) region of the GluR2 alpha-amino-3-hydroxy-5-methyl-4-isoxazole propionic acid (AMPA)-sensitive receptor have suggested how differences in protein/ligand interactions may determine whether a ligand will behave as a full agonist. We have used multiple molecular dynamics simulations of 2-5 ns duration to explore the structural dynamics of GluR2 S1S2 in the presence and absence of glutamate and in a complex with kainate. Our studies indicate that not only is the degree of domain closure dependent upon interactions with the ligand, but also that protein/ligand interactions influence the motion of the S2 domain with respect to S1. Differences in domain mobility between the three states (apo-S1S2, glutamate-bound, and kainate-bound) are surprisingly clear-cut. We discuss how these changes in dynamics may provide an explanation relating the mechanism of transmission of the agonist-binding event to channel opening. We also show here how the glutamate may adopt an alternative mode of binding not seen in the x-ray structure, which involves a key threonine (T480) side chain flipping into a new conformation. This new conformation results in an altered pattern of hydrogen bonding at the agonist-binding site.     

Effective use of a Limited Antiviral Stockpile for Pandemic Influenza

Just allocation of resources for control of infectious diseases can be profoundly influenced by the dynamics of those diseases. In this paper we discuss the use of antiviral drugs for treatment of pandemic influenza. While the primary effect of such drugs is to alleviate and shorten the duration of symptoms for treated individuals, they can have a secondary effect of reducing transmission in the community. However, existing stockpiles may be insufficient for all clinical cases. Here we use simple mathematical models to present scenarios where the optimum policies to minimise morbidity and mortality, with a limited drug stockpile, are not always the most intuitively obvious and may conflict with theories of justice. We discuss ethical implications of these findings.     

A prokaryotic glutamate receptor: homology modelling and molecular dynamics simulations of GluR0

GluR0 is a prokaryotic homologue of mammalian glutamate receptors that forms glutamate-activated, potassium-selective ion channels. The topology of its transmembrane (TM) domain is similar to that of simple potassium channels such as KcsA. Two plausible alignments of the sequence of the TM domain of GluR0 with KcsA are possible, differing in the region of the P helix. We have constructed homology models based on both alignments and evaluated them using 6 ns duration molecular dynamics simulations in a membrane-mimetic environment. One model, in which an insertion in GluR0 relative to KcsA is located in the loop between the M1 and P helices, is preferred on the basis of lower structural drift and maintenance of the P helix conformation during simulation. This model also exhibits inter-subunit salt bridges that help to stabilise the TM domain tetramer. During the simulation, concerted K(+) ion-water movement along the selectivity filter is observed, as is the case in simulations of KcsA. K(+) ion exit from the central cavity is associated with opening of the hydrophobic gate formed by the C-termini of the M2 helices. In the intact receptor the opening of this gate will be controlled by interactions with the extramembranous ligand-binding domains.