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排序方式: 共有230条查询结果,搜索用时 15 毫秒
1.
Eliane S. Meier Thomas C. Edwards Jr Felix Kienast Matthias Dobbertin Niklaus E. Zimmermann 《Journal of Biogeography》2011,38(2):371-382
Aim During recent and future climate change, shifts in large‐scale species ranges are expected due to the hypothesized major role of climatic factors in regulating species distributions. The stress‐gradient hypothesis suggests that biotic interactions may act as major constraints on species distributions under more favourable growing conditions, while climatic constraints may dominate under unfavourable conditions. We tested this hypothesis for one focal tree species having three major competitors using broad‐scale environmental data. We evaluated the variation of species co‐occurrence patterns in climate space and estimated the influence of these patterns on the distribution of the focal species for current and projected future climates. Location Europe. Methods We used ICP Forest Level 1 data as well as climatic, topographic and edaphic variables. First, correlations between the relative abundance of European beech (Fagus sylvatica) and three major competitor species (Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and Quercus robur) were analysed in environmental space, and then projected to geographic space. Second, a sensitivity analysis was performed using generalized additive models (GAM) to evaluate where and how much the predicted F. sylvatica distribution varied under current and future climates if potential competitor species were included or excluded. We evaluated if these areas coincide with current species co‐occurrence patterns. Results Correlation analyses supported the stress‐gradient hypothesis: towards favourable growing conditions of F. sylvatica, its abundance was strongly linked to the abundance of its competitors, while this link weakened towards unfavourable growing conditions, with stronger correlations in the south and at low elevations than in the north and at high elevations. The sensitivity analysis showed a potential spatial segregation of species with changing climate and a pronounced shift of zones where co‐occurrence patterns may play a major role. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate the importance of species co‐occurrence patterns for calibrating improved species distribution models for use in projections of climate effects. The correlation approach is able to localize European areas where inclusion of biotic predictors is effective. The climate‐induced spatial segregation of the major tree species could have ecological and economic consequences. 相似文献
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Dietmar Moser Michael Kuttner Franz Essl Michael Leitner Manuela Winkler Siegrun Ertl Wolfgang Willner Ingrid Kleinbauer Norbert Sauberer Thomas Mang Niklaus E. Zimmermann Stefan Dullinger 《Global Change Biology》2016,22(7):2608-2619
Correlative species distribution models have long been the predominant approach to predict species’ range responses to climate change. Recently, the use of dynamic models is increasingly advocated for because these models better represent the main processes involved in range shifts and also simulate transient dynamics. A well‐known problem with the application of these models is the lack of data for estimating necessary parameters of demographic and dispersal processes. However, what has been hardly considered so far is the fact that simulating transient dynamics potentially implies additional uncertainty arising from our ignorance of short‐term climate variability in future climatic trends. Here, we use endemic mountain plants of Austria as a case study to assess how the integration of decadal variability in future climate affects outcomes of dynamic range models as compared to projected long‐term trends and uncertainty in demographic and dispersal parameters. We do so by contrasting simulations of a so‐called hybrid model run under fluctuating climatic conditions with those based on a linear interpolation of climatic conditions between current values and those predicted for the end of the 21st century. We find that accounting for short‐term climate variability modifies model results nearly as differences in projected long‐term trends and much more than uncertainty in demographic/dispersal parameters. In particular, range loss and extinction rates are much higher when simulations are run under fluctuating conditions. These results highlight the importance of considering the appropriate temporal resolution when parameterizing and applying range‐dynamic models, and hybrid models in particular. In case of our endemic mountain plants, we hypothesize that smoothed linear time series deliver more reliable results because these long‐lived species are primarily responsive to long‐term climate averages. 相似文献
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Engelhardt Ilonka C. Niklaus Pascal A. Bizouard Florian Breuil Marie-Christine Rouard Nadine Deau Florence Philippot Laurent Barnard Romain L. 《Plant and Soil》2021,461(1-2):151-162
Plant and Soil - Contrasting nutrient-acquisition strategies would explain why species differ in their distribution in relation to soil phosphorus (P) availability, promoting diversity. However,... 相似文献
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Jian-Jun Jia Roni M Lahr Michael T Solgaard Bruno J Moraes Roberta Pointet An-Dao Yang Giovanna Celucci Tyson E Graber Huy-Dung Hoang Marius
R Niklaus Izabella A Pena Anne K Hollensen Ewan M Smith Malik Chaker-Margot Leonie Anton Christopher Dajadian Mark Livingstone Jaclyn Hearnden Xu-Dong Wang Yonghao Yu Timm Maier Christian K Damgaard Andrea J Berman Tommy Alain Bruno D Fonseca 《Nucleic acids research》2021,49(6):3461
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Nicholas C. Coops Felix Morsdorf Michael E. Schaepman Niklaus E. Zimmermann 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(12):3808-3821
Understanding what environmental drivers control the position of the alpine tree line is important for refining our understanding of plant stress and tree development, as well as for climate change studies. However, monitoring the location of the tree line position and potential movement is difficult due to cost and technical challenges, as well as a lack of a clear boundary. Advanced remote sensing technologies such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) offer significant potential to map short individual tree crowns within the transition zone despite the lack of predictive capacity. Process‐based forest growth models offer a complementary approach by quantifying the environmental stresses trees experience at the tree line, allowing transition zones to be defined and ultimately mapped. In this study, we investigate the role remote sensing and physiological, ecosystem‐based modeling can play in the delineation of the alpine tree line. To do so, we utilize airborne LiDAR data to map tree height and stand density across a series of altitudinal gradients from below to above the tree line within the Swiss National Park (SNP), Switzerland. We then utilize a simple process‐based model to assess the importance of seasonal variations on four climatically related variables that impose non‐linear constraints on photosynthesis. Our results indicate that all methods predict the tree line to within a 50 m altitudinal zone and indicate that aspect is not a driver of significant variations in tree line position in the region. Tree cover, rather than tree height is the main discriminator of the tree line at higher elevations. Temperatures in fall and spring are responsible for the major differences along altitudinal zones, however, changes in evaporative demand also control plant growth at lower altitudes. Our results indicate that the two methods provide complementary information on tree line location and, when combined, provide additional insights into potentially endangered forest/grassland transition zones. 相似文献
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Pascal Vittoz Daniel Cherix Yves Gonseth Verena Lubini Ramona Maggini Niklaus Zbinden Silvia Zumbach 《Journal for Nature Conservation》2013,21(3):154-162
A noticeable increase in mean temperature has already been observed in Switzerland and summer temperatures up to 4.8 K warmer are expected by 2090. This article reviews the observed impacts of climate change on biodiversity and considers some perspectives for the future at the national level.The following impacts are already evident for all considered taxonomic groups: elevation shifts of distribution towards mountain summits, spread of thermophilous species, colonisation by new species from warmer areas and phenological shifts. Additionally, in the driest areas, increasing droughts are affecting tree survival and fish species are suffering from warm temperatures in lowland regions. These observations are coherent with model projections, and future changes will probably follow the current trends.These changes will likely cause extinctions for alpine species (competition, loss of habitat) and lowland species (temperature or drought stress). In the very urbanised Swiss landscape, the high fragmentation of the natural ecosystems will hinder the dispersal of many species towards mountains. Moreover, disruptions in species interactions caused by individual migration rates or phenological shifts are likely to have consequences for biodiversity. Conversely, the inertia of the ecosystems (species longevity, restricted dispersal) and the local persistence of populations will probably result in lower extinction rates than expected with some models, at least in 21st century. It is thus very difficult to estimate the impact of climate change in terms of species extinctions. A greater recognition by society of the intrinsic value of biodiversity and of its importance for our existence will be essential to put in place effective mitigation measures and to safeguard a maximum number of native species. 相似文献
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Eric Allan Wolfgang W. Weisser Markus Fischer Ernst-Detlef Schulze Alexandra Weigelt Christiane Roscher Jussi Baade Romain L. Barnard Holger Beßler Nina Buchmann Anne Ebeling Nico Eisenhauer Christof Engels Alexander J. F. Fergus Gerd Gleixner Marlén Gubsch Stefan Halle Alexandra M. Klein Ilona Kertscher Annely Kuu Markus Lange Xavier Le Roux Sebastian T. Meyer Varvara D. Migunova Alexandru Milcu Pascal A. Niklaus Yvonne Oelmann Esther Pašalić Jana S. Petermann Franck Poly Tanja Rottstock Alexander C. W. Sabais Christoph Scherber Michael Scherer-Lorenzen Stefan Scheu Sibylle Steinbeiss Guido Schwichtenberg Vicky Temperton Teja Tscharntke Winfried Voigt Wolfgang Wilcke Christian Wirth Bernhard Schmid 《Oecologia》2013,173(1):223-237
In order to predict which ecosystem functions are most at risk from biodiversity loss, meta-analyses have generalised results from biodiversity experiments over different sites and ecosystem types. In contrast, comparing the strength of biodiversity effects across a large number of ecosystem processes measured in a single experiment permits more direct comparisons. Here, we present an analysis of 418 separate measures of 38 ecosystem processes. Overall, 45 % of processes were significantly affected by plant species richness, suggesting that, while diversity affects a large number of processes not all respond to biodiversity. We therefore compared the strength of plant diversity effects between different categories of ecosystem processes, grouping processes according to the year of measurement, their biogeochemical cycle, trophic level and compartment (above- or belowground) and according to whether they were measures of biodiversity or other ecosystem processes, biotic or abiotic and static or dynamic. Overall, and for several individual processes, we found that biodiversity effects became stronger over time. Measures of the carbon cycle were also affected more strongly by plant species richness than were the measures associated with the nitrogen cycle. Further, we found greater plant species richness effects on measures of biodiversity than on other processes. The differential effects of plant diversity on the various types of ecosystem processes indicate that future research and political effort should shift from a general debate about whether biodiversity loss impairs ecosystem functions to focussing on the specific functions of interest and ways to preserve them individually or in combination. 相似文献