A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Can Newts Cope with the Heat? Disparate Thermoregulatory Strategies of Two Sympatric Species in Water

Many ectotherms effectively reduce their exposure to low or high environmental temperatures using behavioral thermoregulation. In terrestrial ectotherms, thermoregulatory strategies range from accurate thermoregulation to thermoconformity according to the costs and limits of thermoregulation, while in aquatic taxa the quantification of behavioral thermoregulation have received limited attention. We examined thermoregulation in two sympatric newt species, Ichthyosaura alpestris and Lissotriton vulgaris, exposed to elevated water temperatures under semi-natural conditions. According to a recent theory, we predicted that species for which elevated water temperatures pose a lower thermal quality habitat, would thermoregulate more effectively than species in thermally benign conditions. In the laboratory thermal gradient, L. vulgaris maintained higher body temperatures than I. alpestris. Semi-natural thermal conditions provided better thermal quality of habitat for L. vulgaris than for I. alpestris. Thermoregulatory indices indicated that I. alpestris actively thermoregulated its body temperature, whereas L. vulgaris remained passive to the thermal heterogeneity of aquatic environment. In the face of elevated water temperatures, sympatric newt species employed disparate thermoregulatory strategies according to the species-specific quality of the thermal habitat. Both strategies reduced newt exposure to suboptimal water temperatures with the same accuracy but with or without the costs of thermoregulation. The quantification of behavioral thermoregulation proves to be an important conceptual and methodological tool for thermal ecology studies not only in terrestrial but also in aquatic ectotherms.     

Probing binding mechanism of interleukin-6 and olokizumab: in silico design of potential lead antibodies for autoimmune and inflammatory diseases

Computer-aided antibody engineering has been successful in the design of new biologics for disease diagnosis and therapeutic interventions. Interleukin-6 (IL-6), a well-recognized drug target for various autoimmune and inflammatory diseases such as rheumatoid arthritis, multiple sclerosis, and psoriasis, was investigated in silico to design potential lead antibodies. Here, crystal structure of IL-6 along with monoclonal antibody olokizumab was explored to predict antigen–antibody (Ag???Ab)-interacting residues using DiscoTope, Paratome, and PyMOL. Tyr56, Tyr103 in heavy chain and Gly30, Ile31 in light chain of olokizumab were mutated with residues Ser, Thr, Tyr, Trp, and Phe. A set of 899 mutant macromolecules were designed, and binding affinity of these macromolecules to IL-6 was evaluated through Ag???Ab docking (ZDOCK, ClusPro, and Rosetta server), binding free-energy calculations using Molecular Mechanics/Poisson Boltzman Surface Area (MM/PBSA) method, and interaction energy estimation. In comparison to olokizumab, eight newly designed theoretical antibodies demonstrated better result in all assessments. Therefore, these newly designed macromolecules were proposed as potential lead antibodies to serve as a therapeutics option for IL-6-mediated diseases.     

Chemo-enzymatic synthesis of the Galili epitope Gal(alpha)(1-->3)Galbeta(1-->4)GlcNAc on a homogeneously soluble PEG polymer by a multi-enzyme system.

The alpha-Gal trisaccharide Gal(alpha)(1-->3)Galbeta(1-->4)GlcNAc 11 was synthesized on a homogeneously soluble polymeric support (polyethylene glycol, PEG) by use of a multi-enzyme system consisting of beta-1,4-galactosyltransferase (EC 2.4.1.38), alpha-1,3-galactosyltransferase (EC 2.4.1.151), sucrose synthase (EC 2.4.1.13) and UDP-glucose-4-epimerase (EC 5.1.3.2). In addition workup was simplified by use of dia-ultrafiltration. Thus the advantages of classic chemistry/enzymology and solid-phase synthesis could be united in one. Subsequent hydrogenolytic cleavage afforded the free alpha-Gal trisaccharide.     

Mice Lacking Platelet-Derived Growth Factor D Display a Mild Vascular Phenotype

Platelet-derived growth factor D (PDGF-D) is the most recently discovered member of the PDGF family. PDGF-D signals through PDGF receptor β, but its biological role remains largely unknown. In contrast to other members of the PDGF family of growth factors, which have been extensively investigated using different knockout approaches in mice, PDGF-D has until now not been characterized by gene inactivation in mice. Here, we present the phenotype of a constitutive Pdgfd knockout mouse model (Pdgfd^-/-), carrying a LacZ reporter used to visualize Pdgfd promoter activity. Inactivation of the Pdgfd gene resulted in a mild phenotype in C57BL/6 mice, and the offspring was viable, fertile and generally in good health. We show that Pdgfd reporter gene activity was consistently localized to vascular structures in both postnatal and adult tissues. The expression was predominantly arterial, often localizing to vascular bifurcations. Endothelial cells appeared to be the dominating source for Pdgfd, but reporter gene activity was occasionally also found in subpopulations of mural cells. Tissue-specific analyses of vascular structures revealed that NG2-expressing pericytes of the cardiac vasculature were disorganized in Pdgfd^-/- mice. Furthermore, Pdgfd^-/- mice also had a slightly elevated blood pressure. In summary, the vascular expression pattern together with morphological changes in NG2-expressing cells, and the increase in blood pressure, support a function for PDGF-D in regulating systemic arterial blood pressure, and suggests a role in maintaining vascular homeostasis.     

Interactions of Carbon Dioxide and Food Odours in Drosophila: Olfactory Hedonics and Sensory Neuron Properties

Behavioural responses of animals to volatiles in their environment are generally dependent on context. Most natural odours are mixtures of components that can each induce different behaviours when presented on their own. We have investigated how a complex of two olfactory stimuli is evaluated by Drosophila flies in a free-flying two-trap choice assay and how these stimuli are encoded in olfactory receptor neurons. We first observed that volatiles from apple cider vinegar attracted flies while carbon dioxide (CO₂) was avoided, confirming their inherent positive and negative values. In contradiction with previous results obtained from walking flies in a four-field olfactometer, in the present assay the addition of CO₂ to vinegar increased rather than decreased the attractiveness of vinegar. This effect was female-specific even though males and females responded similarly to CO₂ and vinegar on their own. To test whether the female-specific behavioural response to the mixture correlated with a sexual dimorphism at the peripheral level we recorded from olfactory receptor neurons stimulated with vinegar, CO₂ and their combination. Responses to vinegar were obtained from three neuron classes, two of them housed with the CO₂-responsive neuron in ab1 sensilla. Sensitivity of these neurons to both CO₂ and vinegar per se did not differ between males and females and responses from female neurons did not change when CO₂ and vinegar were presented simultaneously. We also found that CO₂-sensitive neurons are particularly well adapted to respond rapidly to small concentration changes irrespective of background CO₂ levels. The ability to encode temporal properties of stimulations differs considerably between CO₂- and vinegar-sensitive neurons. These properties may have important implications for in-flight navigation when rapid responses to fragmented odour plumes are crucial to locate odour sources. However, the flies’ sex-specific response to the CO₂-vinegar combination and the context-dependent hedonics most likely originate from central rather than peripheral processing.     

Histochemistry of mucosubstances in Brunner's-gland cells and duodenal goblet cells of two New World monkey species (Saimiri sciureus and Saguinus fuscicollis)

Duodenal goblet cells and Brunner's-gland cells obtained from two species of New World monkeys (Saimiri sciureus and Saguinus fuscicollis) were studied using conventional histochemical methods and by applying a panel of 17 labelled lectins. The secretions of both goblet and Brunner's-gland cells were found to contain neutral mucosubstances, while those of goblet cells also exhibit acid and sulphated carbohydrate components. Lectin binding studies allowed a more detailed analysis of the mucus glycoproteins. Marked differences between the two examined species were not detected. N-Acetyl-galactosamine, galactose, fucose and N-Acetyl-glucosamine were found to be the predominant sugar residues in Brunner's-glands glycoproteins, with mannose and glucose being only minor components.     

Assessment of Optimal Selected Prognostic Factors

The identification and assessment of prognostic factors is one of the major tasks in clinical research. The assessment of one single prognostic factor can be done by recently established methods for using optimal cutpoints. Here, we suggest a method to consider an optimal selected prognostic factor from a set of prognostic factors of interest. This can be viewed as a variable selection method and is the underlying decision problem at each node of various tree building algorithms. We propose to use maximally selected statistics where the selection is defined over the set of prognostic factors and over all cutpoints in each prognostic factor. We demonstrate that it is feasible to compute the approximate null distribution. We illustrate the new variable selection test with data of the German Breast Cancer Study Group and of a small study on patients with diffuse large B‐cell lymphoma. Using the null distribution for a p‐value adjusted regression trees algorithm, we adjust for the number of variables analysed at each node as well. (© 2004 WILEY‐VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim)