Modelling the effects of climate change on the distribution and production of marine fishes: accounting for trophic interactions in a dynamic bioclimate envelope model

Climate change has already altered the distribution of marine fishes. Future predictions of fish distributions and catches based on bioclimate envelope models are available, but to date they have not considered interspecific interactions. We address this by combining the species‐based Dynamic Bioclimate Envelope Model (DBEM) with a size‐based trophic model. The new approach provides spatially and temporally resolved predictions of changes in species' size, abundance and catch potential that account for the effects of ecological interactions. Predicted latitudinal shifts are, on average, reduced by 20% when species interactions are incorporated, compared to DBEM predictions, with pelagic species showing the greatest reductions. Goodness‐of‐fit of biomass data from fish stock assessments in the North Atlantic between 1991 and 2003 is improved slightly by including species interactions. The differences between predictions from the two models may be relatively modest because, at the North Atlantic basin scale, (i) predators and competitors may respond to climate change together; (ii) existing parameterization of the DBEM might implicitly incorporate trophic interactions; and/or (iii) trophic interactions might not be the main driver of responses to climate. Future analyses using ecologically explicit models and data will improve understanding of the effects of inter‐specific interactions on responses to climate change, and better inform managers about plausible ecological and fishery consequences of a changing environment.     

Biomass changes and trophic amplification of plankton in a warmer ocean

Ocean warming can modify the ecophysiology and distribution of marine organisms, and relationships between species, with nonlinear interactions between ecosystem components potentially resulting in trophic amplification. Trophic amplification (or attenuation) describe the propagation of a hydroclimatic signal up the food web, causing magnification (or depression) of biomass values along one or more trophic pathways. We have employed 3‐D coupled physical‐biogeochemical models to explore ecosystem responses to climate change with a focus on trophic amplification. The response of phytoplankton and zooplankton to global climate‐change projections, carried out with the IPSL Earth System Model by the end of the century, is analysed at global and regional basis, including European seas (NE Atlantic, Barents Sea, Baltic Sea, Black Sea, Bay of Biscay, Adriatic Sea, Aegean Sea) and the Eastern Boundary Upwelling System (Benguela). Results indicate that globally and in Atlantic Margin and North Sea, increased ocean stratification causes primary production and zooplankton biomass to decrease in response to a warming climate, whilst in the Barents, Baltic and Black Seas, primary production and zooplankton biomass increase. Projected warming characterized by an increase in sea surface temperature of 2.29 ± 0.05 °C leads to a reduction in zooplankton and phytoplankton biomasses of 11% and 6%, respectively. This suggests negative amplification of climate driven modifications of trophic level biomass through bottom‐up control, leading to a reduced capacity of oceans to regulate climate through the biological carbon pump. Simulations suggest negative amplification is the dominant response across 47% of the ocean surface and prevails in the tropical oceans; whilst positive trophic amplification prevails in the Arctic and Antarctic oceans. Trophic attenuation is projected in temperate seas. Uncertainties in ocean plankton projections, associated to the use of single global and regional models, imply the need for caution when extending these considerations into higher trophic levels.     

A mechanistic explanation of the Sargasso Sea DMS “summer paradox”

In the Sargasso Sea, maximum dimethylsulfide (DMS) accumulation occurs in summer, concomitant with the minimum of chlorophyll and 2?months later than its precursor, dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP). This phenomenon is often referred to as the DMS “summer paradox”. It has been previously suggested that the main agent triggering this pattern is increasing irradiance leading to light stress-induced DMS release from phytoplankton cells. We have developed a new model describing DMS(P) dynamics in the water column and used it to investigate how and to what extent processes other than light induced DMS exudation from phytoplankton, may contribute to the DMS summer paradox. To do this, we have conceptually divided the DMS “summer paradox” into two components: (1) the temporal decoupling between chlorophyll and DMSP and (2) the temporal decoupling between DMSP and DMS. Our results suggest that it is possible to explain the above cited patterns by means of two different dynamics, respectively: (1) a succession of phytoplankton types in the surface water and (2) the bacterially mediated DMSP(d) to DMS conversion, seasonally varying as a function of nutrient limitation. This work differs from previous modelling studies in that the presented model suggests that phytoplankton light-stress induced processes may only partially explain the summer paradox, not being able to explain the decoupling between DMSP and DMS, which is possibly the more challenging aspect of this phenomenon. Our study, therefore, provides an “alternative” explanation to the summer paradox further underlining the major role that bacteria potentially play in DMS production and fate.     

Can we project changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate?

Large‐scale and long‐term changes in fish abundance and distribution in response to climate change have been simulated using both statistical and process‐based models. However, national and regional fisheries management requires also shorter term projections on smaller spatial scales, and these need to be validated against fisheries data. A 26‐year time series of fish surveys with high spatial resolution in the North‐East Atlantic provides a unique opportunity to assess the ability of models to correctly simulate the changes in fish distribution and abundance that occurred in response to climate variability and change. We use a dynamic bioclimate envelope model forced by physical–biogeochemical output from eight ocean models to simulate changes in fish abundance and distribution at scales down to a spatial resolution of 0.5°. When comparing with these simulations with annual fish survey data, we found the largest differences at the 0.5° scale. Differences between fishery model runs driven by different biogeochemical models decrease dramatically when results are aggregated to larger scales (e.g. the whole North Sea), to total catches rather than individual species or when the ensemble mean instead of individual simulations are used. Recent improvements in the fidelity of biogeochemical models translate into lower error rates in the fisheries simulations. However, predictions based on different biogeochemical models are often more similar to each other than they are to the survey data, except for some pelagic species. We conclude that model results can be used to guide fisheries management at larger spatial scales, but more caution is needed at smaller scales.