Predicting the Maximum Earthquake Magnitude from Seismic Data in Israel and Its Neighboring Countries

This paper explores several data mining and time series analysis methods for predicting the magnitude of the largest seismic event in the next year based on the previously recorded seismic events in the same region. The methods are evaluated on a catalog of 9,042 earthquake events, which took place between 01/01/1983 and 31/12/2010 in the area of Israel and its neighboring countries. The data was obtained from the Geophysical Institute of Israel. Each earthquake record in the catalog is associated with one of 33 seismic regions. The data was cleaned by removing foreshocks and aftershocks. In our study, we have focused on ten most active regions, which account for more than 80% of the total number of earthquakes in the area. The goal is to predict whether the maximum earthquake magnitude in the following year will exceed the median of maximum yearly magnitudes in the same region. Since the analyzed catalog includes only 28 years of complete data, the last five annual records of each region (referring to the years 2006–2010) are kept for testing while using the previous annual records for training. The predictive features are based on the Gutenberg-Richter Ratio as well as on some new seismic indicators based on the moving averages of the number of earthquakes in each area. The new predictive features prove to be much more useful than the indicators traditionally used in the earthquake prediction literature. The most accurate result (AUC = 0.698) is reached by the Multi-Objective Info-Fuzzy Network (M-IFN) algorithm, which takes into account the association between two target variables: the number of earthquakes and the maximum earthquake magnitude during the same year.     

Alpha-tocopherol modulates genes involved in hepatic xenobiotic pathways in mice

Hepatic proteins involved in xenobiotic pathways (Phases I, II and III) are responsible for the metabolism and disposition of endogenous and exogenous compounds including dietary phytochemicals. To test the hypothesis that elevated alpha-tocopherol intakes alter gene expression of hepatic xenobiotic pathways, mice were fed diets supplemented with either 1000 IU (+E) or 35 IU (E) all-rac-alpha-tocopheryl acetate for 4 months; liver RNA was isolated, and gene expression was determined using both whole genome microarray and real-time quantitative polymerase chain reaction analyses. Hepatic alpha-tocopherol (173+/-18 vs. 21+/-1 nmol/g, mean+/-S.E.) and its metabolite (2,5,7,8-tetramethyl-2-(2'-carboxyethyl)-6-hydroxychroman, 0.232+/-0.046 vs. 0.031+/-0.019 nmol/g) concentrations were approximately eightfold higher following the +E dietary treatment. In +E relative to E mice, gene expression of Phase I enzymes, P450 oxidoreductase and cytochrome P450 3a11 increased 1.6- and 4.0-fold, respectively; two Phase II genes, sulfotransferase 2a and glutathione S-transferase mu 3, increased 10.8- and 1.9-fold respectively, and a Phase III biliary transporter, Abcb1a, doubled. Thus, consumption of high-level dietary alpha-tocopherol simultaneously coordinated Phase I, II and III gene expression. These data demonstrate that increased hepatic alpha-tocopherol modulates its own concentrations through increasing xenobiotic metabolism, a process that may alter metabolism of other foreign compounds, such as therapeutic drugs and phytochemicals, in humans.     

Association of the chaperone alphaB-crystallin with titin in heart muscle

alphaB-crystallin, a major component of the vertebrate lens, is a chaperone belonging to the family of small heat shock proteins. These proteins form oligomers that bind to partially unfolded substrates and prevent denaturation. alphaB-crystallin in cardiac muscle binds to myofibrils under conditions of ischemia, and previous work has shown that the protein binds to titin in the I-band of cardiac fibers (Golenhofen, N., Arbeiter, A., Koob, R., and Drenckhahn, D. (2002) J. Mol. Cell. Cardiol. 34, 309-319). This part of titin extends as muscles are stretched and is made up of immunoglobulin-like modules and two extensible regions (N2B and PEVK) that have no well defined secondary structure. We have followed the position of alphaB-crystallin in stretched cardiac fibers relative to a known part of the titin sequence. alphaB-crystallin bound to a discrete region of the I-band that moved away from the Z-disc as sarcomeres were extended. In the physiological range of sarcomere lengths, alphaB-crystallin bound in the position of the N2B region of titin, but not to PEVK. In overstretched myofibrils, it was also in the Ig region between N2B and the Z-disc. Binding between alphaB-crystallin and N2B was confirmed using recombinant titin fragments. The Ig domains in an eight-domain fragment were stabilized by alphaB-crystallin; atomic force microscopy showed that higher stretching forces were needed to unfold the domains in the presence of the chaperone. Reversible association with alphaB-crystallin would protect I-band titin from stress liable to cause domain unfolding until conditions are favorable for refolding to the native state.     

Exploring routes to stabilize a cationic pyridoxamine in an artificial transaminase: site-directed mutagenesis versus synthetic cofactors

Two artificial transaminases were assembled by linking a pyridoxamine derivative within an engineered fatty acid binding protein. The goal of mimicking a native transamination site by stabilizing a cationic pyridoxamine ring system was approached using two different strategies. First, the scaffold of intestinal fatty acid binding protein (IFABP) was tailored by molecular modeling and site-directed mutagenesis to position a carboxylate group close to the pyridine nitrogen of the cofactor. When these IFABP mutants (IFABP-V60C/L38K/E93E and -V60C/E51K/E93E) proved to be unstable, a second approach was explored. By N-methylation of the pyridoxamine, a cationic cofactor was created and tethered to Cys60 of IFABP-V60C/L38K and -V60C/E51K; this latter strategy had the effect of permanently installing a positive charge on the cofactor. These chemogenetic assemblies catalyze the transamination between alpha-ketoglutarate and various amino acids with enantioselectivities of up to 96% ee. The pH profile of the initial rates is bell shaped and similar to native aminotransferases. The k(cat) values and the turnover numbers for these new constructs are the highest achieved to date in our system. This success was only made possible by the unique flexibility of the underlying enzyme design concept employed, which permits full control of both the protein scaffold and the catalytically active group.     

High-sensitivity cardiac troponin T: risk stratification tool in patients with symptoms of chest discomfort

Background

Recent studies have demonstrated the association between increased concentrations of high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs-cTnT) and the incidence of myocardial infarction, heart failure, and mortality. However, most prognostic studies to date focus on the value of hs-cTnT in the elderly or general population. The value of hs-cTnT in symptomatic patients visiting the outpatient department remains unclear. The aim of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of hs-cTnT as a biomarker in patients with symptoms of chest discomfort suspected for coronary artery disease and to assess its additional value in combination with other risk stratification tools in predicting cardiac events.

Methods

We studied 1,088 patients (follow-up 2.2±0.8 years) with chest discomfort who underwent coronary calcium scoring and coronary CT-angiography. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors and concentrations of hs-cTnT, N-terminal pro-brain-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) were assessed. Study endpoint was the occurrence of late coronary revascularization (>90 days), acute coronary syndrome, and cardiac mortality.

Results

Hs-cTnT was a significant predictor for the composite endpoint (highest quartile [Q4]>6.7 ng/L, HR 3.55; 95%CI 1.88–6.70; P<0.001). Survival analysis showed that hs-cTnT had significant predictive value on top of current risk stratification tools (Chi-square change P<0.01). In patients with hs-cTnT in Q4 versus P<0.01). This was not the case for hsCRP and NT-proBNP.

Conclusions

Hs-cTnT is a useful prognostic biomarker in patients with chest discomfort suspected for coronary artery disease. In addition, hs-cTnT was an independent predictor for cardiac events when corrected for cardiovascular risk profiling, calcium score and CT-angiography results.     

Pharmacogenomics and personalized medicine: wicked problems, ragged edges and ethical precipices

In the age of genomic medicine we can often now do the genetic testing that will permit more accurate personal tailoring of medications to obtain the best therapeutic results. This is certainly a medically and morally desirable result. However, in other areas of medicine pharmacogenomics is generating consequences that are much less ethically benign and much less amenable to a satisfactory ethical resolution. More specifically, we will often find ourselves left with 'wicked problems,' 'ragged edges,' and well-disguised ethical precipices. This will be especially true with regard to these extraordinarily expensive cancer drugs that generally yield only extra weeks or extra months of life. Our key ethical question is this: Does every individual faced with cancer have a just claim to receive treatment with one of more of these targeted cancer therapies at social expense? If any of these drugs literally made the difference between an unlimited life expectancy (a cure) and a premature death, that would be a powerful moral consideration in favor of saying that such individuals had a strong just claim to that drug. However, what we are beginning to discover is that different individuals with different genotypes respond more or less positively to these targeted drugs with some in a cohort gaining a couple extra years of life while others gain only extra weeks or months. Should only the strongest responders have a just claim to these drugs at social expense when there is no bright line that separates strong responders from modest responders from marginal responders? This is the key ethical issue we address. We argue that no ethical theory yields a satisfactory answer to this question, that we need instead fair and respectful processes of rational democratic deliberation.     

Utilization of chromosomal markers in cancer research]

The mouse is an unsuitable species for cytogenetical studies to the extent that it has 40 acrocentric chromosomes and the only criterion which could be used to differentiate them is size. We envisaged using in the case of cell grafts donors or recipients of different sex. This technique has, however, been used to a limited extent. Among the other markers which have been utilized, T6T6 of CBA mice must be mentioned. The discovery in 1966 by Léonard and Dekundt of the presence in AKR mice of fusions of the Robertson type (between chromosomes 6 and 15) has generated new interest in experimental work based on the utilisation of chromosome markers. Being interested in the mechanisms of radio-induced leukemia, the authors described how they have introduced the chromosome marker of AKR mice into the C57B1 strain which is very sensitive to the induction of radio-induced leukemias.