ESTIMATING PHENOTYPIC SELECTION IN AGE‐STRUCTURED POPULATIONS BY REMOVING TRANSIENT FLUCTUATIONS

An extension of the selection differential in the Robertson–Price equation for the mean phenotype in an age‐structured population is provided. Temporal changes in the mean phenotype caused by transient fluctuations in the age‐distribution and variation in mean phenotype among age classes, which can mistakenly be interpreted as selection, will disappear if reproductive value weighting is applied. Changes in any weighted mean phenotype in an age‐structured population may be decomposed into between‐ and within‐age class components. Using reproductive value weighting the between‐age class component becomes pure noise, generated by previous genetic drift or fluctuating selection. This component, which we call transient quasi‐selection, can therefore be omitted when estimating age‐specific selection on fecundity or viability within age classes. The final response can be computed at the time of selection, but can not be observed until lifetime reproduction is realized unless the heritability is one. The generality of these results is illustrated further by our derivation of the selection differential for the continuous time age‐structured model with general age‐dependent weights. A simple simulation example as well as estimation of selection components in a house sparrow population illustrates the applicability of the theory to analyze selection on the mean phenotype in fluctuating age‐structured populations.     

Reversal of response to artificial selection on body size in a wild passerine

A general assumption in quantitative genetics is the existence of an intermediate phenotype with higher mean individual fitness in the average environment than more extreme phenotypes. Here, we investigate the evolvability and presence of such a phenotype in wild bird populations from an eleven‐year experiment with four years of artificial selection for long and short tarsus length, a proxy for body size. The experiment resulted in strong selection in the imposed directions. However, artificial selection was counteracted by reduced production of recruits in offspring of artificially selected parents. This resulted in weak natural selection against extreme trait values. Significant responses to artificial selection were observed at both the phenotypic and genetic level, followed by a significant return toward preexperimental means. During artificial selection, the annual observed phenotypic response closely followed the predicted response from quantitative genetic theory ( = 0.96, = 0.56). The rapid return to preexperimental means was induced by three interacting mechanisms: selection for an intermediate phenotype, immigration, and recombination between selected and unselected individuals. The results of this study demonstrates the evolvability of phenotypes and that selection may favor an intermediate phenotype in wild populations.     

Harvest‐induced phenotypic selection in an island population of moose,Alces alces

Empirical evidence strongly indicates that human exploitation has frequently led to rapid evolutionary changes in wild populations, yet the mechanisms involved are often poorly understood. Here, we applied a recently developed demographic framework for analyzing selection to data from a 20‐year study of a wild population of moose, Alces alces. In this population, a genetic pedigree has been established all the way back to founders. We demonstrate harvest‐induced directional selection for delayed birth dates in males and reduced body mass as calf in females. During the study period, birth date was delayed by 0.81 days per year for both sexes, whereas no significant changes occurred in calf body mass. Quantitative genetic analyses indicated that both traits harbored significant additive genetic variance. These results show that selective harvesting can induce strong selection that oppose natural selection. This may cause evolution of less favorable phenotypes that become maladaptive once harvesting ceases.     

Spatial variation in the evolutionary potential and constraints of basal metabolic rate and body mass in a wild bird

An organism's energy budget is strongly related to resource consumption, performance, and fitness. Hence, understanding the evolution of key energetic traits, such as basal metabolic rate (BMR), in natural populations is central for understanding life-history evolution and ecological processes. Here we used quantitative genetic analyses to study evolutionary potential of BMR in two insular populations of the house sparrow (Passer domesticus). We obtained measurements of BMR and body mass (M_b) from 911 house sparrows on the islands of Leka and Vega along the coast of Norway. These two populations were the source populations for translocations to create an additional third, admixed ‘common garden’ population in 2012. With the use of a novel genetic group animal model concomitant with a genetically determined pedigree, we differentiate genetic and environmental sources of variation, thereby providing insight into the effects of spatial population structure on evolutionary potential. We found that the evolutionary potential of BMR was similar in the two source populations, whereas the Vega population had a somewhat higher evolutionary potential of M_b than the Leka population. BMR was genetically correlated with M_b in both populations, and the conditional evolutionary potential of BMR (independent of body mass) was 41% (Leka) and 53% (Vega) lower than unconditional estimates. Overall, our results show that there is potential for BMR to evolve independently of M_b, but that selection on BMR and/or M_b may have different evolutionary consequences in different populations of the same species.     

Characterizing morphological (co)variation using structural equation models: Body size,allometric relationships and evolvability in a house sparrow metapopulation

Body size plays a key role in the ecology and evolution of all organisms. Therefore, quantifying the sources of morphological (co)variation, dependent and independent of body size, is of key importance when trying to understand and predict responses to selection. We combine structural equation modeling with quantitative genetics analyses to study morphological (co)variation in a meta‐population of house sparrows (Passer domesticus). As expected, we found evidence of a latent variable “body size,” causing genetic and environmental covariation between morphological traits. Estimates of conditional evolvability show that allometric relationships constrain the independent evolution of house sparrow morphology. We also found spatial differences in general body size and its allometric relationships. On islands where birds are more dispersive and mobile, individuals were smaller and had proportionally longer wings for their body size. Although on islands where sparrows are more sedentary and nest in dense colonies, individuals were larger and had proportionally longer tarsi for their body size. We corroborated these results using simulations and show that our analyses produce unbiased allometric slope estimates. This study highlights that in the short term allometric relationships may constrain phenotypic evolution, but that in the long term selection pressures can also shape allometric relationships.     

Causes and consequences of variation in early‐life telomere length in a bird metapopulation

Environmental conditions during early‐life development can have lasting effects shaping individual heterogeneity in fitness and fitness‐related traits. The length of telomeres, the DNA sequences protecting chromosome ends, may be affected by early‐life conditions, and telomere length (TL) has been associated with individual performance within some wild animal populations. Thus, knowledge of the mechanisms that generate variation in TL, and the relationship between TL and fitness, is important in understanding the role of telomeres in ecology and life‐history evolution. Here, we investigate how environmental conditions and morphological traits are associated with early‐life blood TL and if TL predicts natal dispersal probability or components of fitness in 2746 wild house sparrow (Passer domesticus) nestlings from two populations sampled across 20 years (1994–2013). We retrieved weather data and we monitored population fluctuations, individual survival, and reproductive output using field observations and genetic pedigrees. We found a negative effect of population density on TL, but only in one of the populations. There was a curvilinear association between TL and the maximum daily North Atlantic Oscillation index during incubation, suggesting that there are optimal weather conditions that result in the longest TL. Dispersers tended to have shorter telomeres than non‐dispersers. TL did not predict survival, but we found a tendency for individuals with short telomeres to have higher annual reproductive success. Our study showed how early‐life TL is shaped by effects of growth, weather conditions, and population density, supporting that environmental stressors negatively affect TL in wild populations. In addition, shorter telomeres may be associated with a faster pace‐of‐life, as individuals with higher dispersal rates and annual reproduction tended to have shorter early‐life TL.     

Correlates of egg size variation in a population of house sparrow Passer domesticus

Propagule size represents an important life-history trait under maternal control. Despite a positive relationship between propagule size and components of fitness, propagule size displays tremendous amounts of variation which causes are poorly understood within natural populations. With a study of a house sparrows Passer domesticus, we investigate maternal and environmental correlates of egg size, quantify variation in egg size within and between females and broods, and estimate heritability. Egg size had a curvilinear relationship with clutch size and decreased significantly in subsequent broods within seasons. Furthermore, egg size increased with maternal body mass, was positively affected by spring temperatures and curvilinearly related to temperature during the 2 weeks prior to egg laying. Some 46.4 % of variation in egg size was due to differences between females, and 21.9 % was explained by variation between broods by the same female. The heritability of egg size was low (h ² = 0.26) compared to estimates from other studies (h ² > 0.6). The present study challenges the recent idea that egg size is an inflexible maternal characteristic with very high additive genetic variance, and suggests that females are subject to both intrinsic and extrinsic constraints prior to and during egg formation, leading to the observed plasticity in egg size. In a general sense, propagule size could be expected to be both limited by and adaptively adjusted in accordance to prevailing environmental conditions.     

On being the right size: increased body size is associated with reduced telomere length under natural conditions

Evolution of body size is likely to involve trade-offs between body size, growth rate and longevity. Within species, larger body size is associated with faster growth and ageing, and reduced longevity, but the cellular processes driving these relationships are poorly understood. One mechanism that might play a key role in determining optimal body size is the relationship between body size and telomere dynamics. However, we know little about how telomere length is affected when selection for larger size is imposed in natural populations. We report here on the relationship between structural body size and telomere length in wild house sparrows at the beginning and end of a selection regime for larger parent size that was imposed for 4 years in an isolated population of house sparrows. A negative relationship between fledgling size and telomere length was present at the start of the selection; this was extended when fledgling size increased under the selection regime, demonstrating a persistent covariance between structural size and telomere length. Changes in telomere dynamics, either as a correlated trait or a consequence of larger size, could reduce potential longevity and the consequent trade-offs could thereby play an important role in the evolution of optimal body size.     

Controlling for P‐value inflation in allele frequency change in experimental evolution and artificial selection experiments

Experimental evolution studies can be used to explore genomic response to artificial and natural selection. In such studies, loci that display larger allele frequency change than expected by genetic drift alone are assumed to be directly or indirectly associated with traits under selection. However, such studies report surprisingly many loci under selection, suggesting that current tests for allele frequency change may be subject to P‐value inflation and hence be anticonservative. One factor known from genomewide association (GWA) studies to cause P‐value inflation is population stratification, such as relatedness among individuals. Here, we suggest that by treating presence of an individual in a population after selection as a binary response variable, existing GWA methods can be used to account for relatedness when estimating allele frequency change. We show that accounting for relatedness like this effectively reduces false‐positives in tests for allele frequency change in simulated data with varying levels of population structure. However, once relatedness has been accounted for, the power to detect causal loci under selection is low. Finally, we demonstrate the presence of P‐value inflation in allele frequency change in empirical data spanning multiple generations from an artificial selection experiment on tarsus length in two free‐living populations of house sparrow and correct for this using genomic control. Our results indicate that since allele frequencies in large parts of the genome may change when selection acts on a heritable trait, such selection is likely to have considerable and immediate consequences for the eco‐evolutionary dynamics of the affected populations.     

Sensitivity analysis of effective population size to demographic parameters in house sparrow populations

The ratio between the effective and the census population size, , is an important measure of the long‐term viability and sustainability of a population. Understanding which demographic processes that affect most will improve our understanding of how genetic drift and the probability of fixation of alleles is affected by demography. This knowledge may also be of vital importance in management of endangered populations and species. Here, we use data from 13 natural populations of house sparrow (Passer domesticus) in Norway to calculate the demographic parameters that determine . Using the global variance‐based Sobol’ method for the sensitivity analyses, we found that was most sensitive to demographic variance, especially among older individuals. Furthermore, the individual reproductive values (that determine the demographic variance) were most sensitive to variation in fecundity. Our results draw attention to the applicability of sensitivity analyses in population management and conservation. For population management aiming to reduce the loss of genetic variation, a sensitivity analysis may indicate the demographic parameters towards which resources should be focused. The result of such an analysis may depend on the life history and mating system of the population or species under consideration, because the vital rates and sex–age classes that is most sensitive to may change accordingly.