Agricultural Landscape Transformation Needed to Meet Water Quality Goals in the Yahara River Watershed of Southern Wisconsin

Ecosystems - Balancing agricultural production with other ecosystem services is a vexing challenge. The Yahara River watershed in southern Wisconsin is a place where tensions among farmers,...     

A Test of Diversity–Productivity Models in Natural,Degraded, and Restored Wet Prairies

Conceptual restoration models depict strong correlations between structure and function, with both decreasing as an ecosystem is degraded and increasing during restoration. We evaluated the “linear” and “asymptotic” models by measuring diversity and annual net primary productivity (NPP) within four states of a southern Wisconsin floodplain: a remnant (unplowed) wet prairie, two degraded sites (soybean field and invaded prairie), and a restored prairie. Neither model fit our data for aboveground (ANPP), belowground (BNPP), or total (TNPP) productivity. ANPP declined as species richness increased (r = 0.998, df = 2), with highest values for soybeans (1,024 g/m²; two species in 30 0.25‐m² plots) and invaded prairie (937 g/m²; nine species, 99% cover of Phalaris arundinacea), intermediate for restored prairie (712 g/m²; 28 species), and lowest for diverse remnant prairie (571 g/m²; 36 species). In contrast, BNPP was lowest for soybeans (225 g/m²) and highest for remnant prairie (571 g/m²). TNPP in restored prairie (990 g/m²) matched that of the remnant (1,147 g/m²) within 7 years, but root:shoot NPP ratios were quite different (0.39 and 0.99, respectively). Overall, results suggest that the relationship between species diversity and productivity can differ with the component measured (ANPP, BNPP, or TNPP) and that diversity does not ensure high productivity. Because measuring ANPP does not fully test ecosystem‐function theory, we recommend assessing BNPP and additional ecosystem processes in future attempts to determine whether adding species will restore more function to degraded ecosystems.     

Effects of logging on carbon dynamics of a jack pine forest in Saskatchewan,Canada

We calculated carbon budgets for a chronosequence of harvested jack pine (Pinus banksiana Lamb.) stands (0‐, 5‐, 10‐, and～29‐year‐old) and a～79‐year‐old stand that originated after wildfire. We measured total ecosystem C content (TEC), above‐, and belowground net primary productivity (NPP) for each stand. All values are reported in order for the 0‐, 5‐, 10‐, 29‐, and 79‐year‐old stands, respectively, for May 1999 through April 2000. Total annual NPP (NPP_T) for the stands (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) was 0.9±0.3, 1.3±0.1, 2.7±0.6, 3.5±0.3, and 1.7±0.4. We correlated periodic soil surface CO₂ fluxes (R_S) with soil temperature to model annual R_S for the stands (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) as 4.4±0.1, 2.4±0.0, 3.3±0.1, 5.7±0.3, and 3.2±0.2. We estimated net ecosystem productivity (NEP) as NPP_T minus R_H (where R_H was calculated using a Monte Carlo approach as coarse woody debris respiration plus 30–70% of total annual R_S). Excluding C losses during wood processing, NEP (Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1±1 SD) for the stands was estimated to be ?1.9±0.7, ?0.4±0.6, 0.4±0.9, 0.4±1.0, and ?0.2±0.7 (negative values indicate net sources to the atmosphere.) We also calculated NEP values from the changes in TEC among stands. Only the 0‐year‐old stand showed significantly different NEP between the two methods, suggesting a possible mismatch for the chronosequence. The spatial and methodological uncertainties allow us to say little for certain except that the stand becomes a source of C to the atmosphere following logging.     

Assessing the potential to decrease the Gulf of Mexico hypoxic zone with Midwest US perennial cellulosic feedstock production

The goal of this research was to determine the changes in streamflow, dissolved inorganic nitrogen (DIN) leaching and export to the Gulf of Mexico associated with a range of large‐scale dedicated perennial cellulosic bioenergy production scenarios within in the Mississippi–Atchafalaya River Basin (MARB). To achieve this goal, we used Agro‐IBIS, a vegetation model capable of simulating the biogeochemistry of row crops, miscanthus and switchgrass, coupled with THMB, a hydrology model capable of simulating streamflow and DIN export. Simulations were conducted at varying fertilizer application rates (0–200 kg N ha^?1) and fractional replacement (5–25%) of current row crops with miscanthus or switchgrass across the MARB. The analysis also includes two scenarios where miscanthus and switchgrass (MRX and MRS, respectively) each replace the ca. 40% of maize production currently devoted to ethanol. Across the scenarios, there were minor reductions in runoff and streamflow throughout the MARB, with the largest differences (ca. 6%) occurring for miscanthus at the highest fractional replacement scenarios in drier portions of the region. However, differences in total MARB discharge at the basin outlet were less than 1.5% even in the MRX scenario. Reductions in DIN export were much larger on a percentage basis than reductions in runoff, with the highest replacement scenarios decreasing long‐term mean DIN export by ca. 15% and 20% for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. Fertilization scenarios show that significant reductions in DIN leaching are possible even with application rates of 100 and 150 kg N ha^?1 for switchgrass and miscanthus, respectively. These results indicate that, given targeted management strategies, there is potential for miscanthus and switchgrass to provide key ecosystem services by reducing the export of DIN, while avoiding hydrologic impacts of reduced streamflow.     

The Influence of Legacy P on Lake Water Quality in a Midwestern Agricultural Watershed

Decades of fertilizer and manure applications have led to a buildup of phosphorus (P) in agricultural soils and sediments, commonly referred to as legacy P. Legacy P can provide a long-term source of P to surface waters where it causes eutrophication. Using a suite of numerical models, we investigated the influence of legacy P on water quality in the Yahara Watershed of southern Wisconsin, USA. The suite included Agro-IBIS, a terrestrial ecosystem model; THMB, a hydrologic and nutrient routing model; and the Yahara Water Quality Model which estimates water quality indicators in the Yahara chain of lakes. Using five alternative scenarios of antecedent P storage (legacy P) in soils and channels under historical climate conditions, we simulated outcomes of P yield from the landscape, lake P loading, and three lake water quality indicators. Legacy P had a significant effect on lake loads and water quality. Across the five scenarios for Lake Mendota, the largest and most upstream lake, average P yield (kg ha^?1) varied by ?41 to +22%, P load (kg y^?1) by ?35 to +14%, summer total P (TP) concentration (mg l^?1) by ?25 to +12%, Secchi depth (m) by ?7 to +3%, and the probability of hypereutrophy by ?67 to +34%, relative to baseline conditions. The minimum storage scenario showed that a 35% reduction in present-day loads to Lake Mendota corresponded with a 25% reduction in summer TP and smaller reductions in the downstream lakes. Water quality was more vulnerable to heavy rainfall events at higher amounts of P storage and less so at lower amounts. Increases in heavy precipitation are expected with climate change; therefore, water quality could be protected by decreasing P reserves.     

Nitrogen Fertilization Effects on Productivity and Nitrogen Loss in Three Grass-Based Perennial Bioenergy Cropping Systems

Nitrogen (N) fertilization can greatly improve plant productivity but needs to be carefully managed to avoid harmful environmental impacts. Nutrient management guidelines aimed at reducing harmful forms of N loss such as nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions and nitrate (NO₃^-) leaching have been tailored for many cropping systems. The developing bioenergy industry is likely to make use of novel cropping systems, such as polycultures of perennial species, for which we have limited nutrient management experience. We studied how a switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) monoculture, a 5-species native grass mixture and an 18-species restored prairie responded to annual fertilizer applications of 56 kg N ha^-1 in a field-scale agronomic trial in south-central Wisconsin over a 2-year period. We observed greater fertilizer-induced N₂O emissions and sub-rooting zone NO₃^- concentrations in the switchgrass monoculture than in either polyculture. Fertilization increased aboveground net primary productivity in the polycultures, but not in the switchgrass monoculture. Switchgrass was generally more productive, while the two polycultures did not differ from each other in productivity or N loss. Our results highlight differences between polycultures and a switchgrass monoculture in responding to N fertilization.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Impacts of Urbanization on Ecosystem Goods and Services in the U.S. Corn Belt

In this study, three cities located in the U.S. Corn Belt are evaluated for impacts of past (1992–2001) and projected (2001–2030) urban expansion on ecosystem goods and services, with a specific focus on changes in energy balance, hydrology, and productivity. Scenarios for high-, medium- and low-density urban areas are simulated using a dynamic agro-ecosystem model (Agro-IBIS), by incorporating new parameterizations for impervious surfaces and turf grass. Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) 500-m albedo data and remote sensing-derived 30-m resolution maps from the U.S. National Land Cover Database are used as model input to simulate biogeochemical, thermodynamic, and hydrological cycles for a range of land-cover types in each region. The results show that the expanding urban areas have a significant impact on each city’s capacity to regulate climate and flooding. High-density urban areas, for instance, have soil surface temperatures up to 6°C higher than soils within natural and managed ecosystems. Expansion of turf grass in residential areas could require an additional 8–105 million m³ of water use annually, which increases runoff by 15–48% and reduces the capacity to respond/adapt to flooding. Finally, the analysis shows that net primary productivity (NPP) decreases as expected due to the removal of cropland, forests, and grasslands in favor of development, but increased urban turf grass provides an annual offset of 40–210 g C m⁻². Urban expansion through 2030 is estimated to lower total annual crop production by 8.1, 8.6, and 16.7% for the Madison, Peoria, and Indianapolis regions, respectively. Given current projections for city growth to exceed 2–3% per year in the north-central U.S., urban expansion across a nine-state region in the Corn Belt could potentially take an additional 210,000–310,000 ha of farmland out of production annually at a time when demand for food, fuel, and fiber is increasing. Because conversion of cropland to urban uses is nearly always unidirectional, any changes to ecosystem goods and services due to urbanization are likely to be permanent and irreversible.     

Miscanthus Establishment and Overwintering in the Midwest USA: A Regional Modeling Study of Crop Residue Management on Critical Minimum Soil Temperatures

Miscanthus is an intriguing cellulosic bioenergy feedstock because its aboveground productivity is high for low amounts of agrochemical inputs, but soil temperatures below −3.5°C could threaten successful cultivation in temperate regions. We used a combination of observed soil temperatures and the Agro-IBIS model to investigate how strategic residue management could reduce the risk of rhizome threatening soil temperatures. This objective was addressed using a historical (1978–2007) reconstruction of extreme minimum 10 cm soil temperatures experienced across the Midwest US and model sensitivity studies that quantified the impact of crop residue on soil temperatures. At observation sites and for simulations that had bare soil, two critical soil temperature thresholds (50% rhizome winterkill at −3.5°C and −6.0°C for different Miscanthus genotypes) were reached at rhizome planting depth (10 cm) over large geographic areas. The coldest average annual extreme 10 cm soil temperatures were between −8°C to −11°C across North Dakota, South Dakota, and Minnesota. Large portions of the region experienced 10 cm soil temperatures below −3.5°C in 75% or greater for all years, and portions of North and South Dakota, Minnesota, and Wisconsin experienced soil temperatures below −6.0°C in 50–60% of all years. For simulated management options that established varied thicknesses (1–5 cm) of miscanthus straw following harvest, extreme minimum soil temperatures increased by 2.5°C to 6°C compared to bare soil, with the greatest warming associated with thicker residue layers. While the likelihood of 10 cm soil temperatures reaching −3.5°C was greatly reduced with 2–5 cm of surface residue, portions of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Minnesota, and Wisconsin still experienced temperatures colder than −3.5°C in 50–80% of all years. Nonetheless, strategic residue management could help increase the likelihood of overwintering of miscanthus rhizomes in the first few years after establishment, although low productivity and biomass availability during these early stages could hamper such efforts.