Factors controlling long-term changes of the eutrophicated ecosystem of Pärnu Bay,Gulf of Riga

Phytoplankton, mesozooplankton, mysids and fish larvae were studied during 15–29 annual cycles measured weekly to monthly in Pärnu Bay, the Gulf of Riga. The monthly variability of the biological data was related to temperature, ice conditions, salinity, influx of nutrients, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, cloudiness and solar activity. Phytoplankton development was mainly a function of the NAO index. For the whole study period the abundance of zooplankton increased with increasing water temperature and solar activity. Significant correlations between phytoplankton and zooplankton densities were found until 1990. After the invasion of the predatory cladoceran Cercopagis pengoi in 1991, the zooplankton community was likely to be regulated by the introduced species rather than phytoplankton dynamics. The increased abundances of rotifers and copepods triggered the increase in mysid densities. The development of herring larvae was positively affected by the high density of copepods and rotifers but also by increased eutrophication. Until 1990 there was no significant relationship between the density of zooplankton and herring larvae. A negative relationship between the density of zooplankton and herring larvae in the 1990s suggests that the major shift in zooplankton community resulted in food limitation for herring larvae. The results indicated that (1) atmospheric processes in the northern Atlantic explain a large part of the interannual variation of the local phytoplankton stock, (2) trophic interactions control the development of pelagic communities at higher trophic levels, and (3) the introduction of an effective intermediate predator has repercussions for the whole pelagic food web in Pärnu Bay.