SURVIVAL RATES FOR THE HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL (MONACHUS SCHAUINSLANDI)

Abstract: Endangered Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachs schauinslandi ) pups at all the major breeding islands in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands have been tagged since the early 1980s. Pups were double flipper tagged as soon as possible post-weaning. With few exceptions, an extensive tag resighting effort was conducted annually at the same islands. These resighting data were used to estimate seal survival rates from the time of tagging to age one at all locations using the ratio of seals alive in the second year to number of pups tagged. These survival rates among the islands, from weaning to age one, averaged over the years of the study, ranged from 0.80 to 0.90. For young seals over age one, capture-recapture methods were used to calculate survival pooled through several years, and these rates ranged from 0.85 to 0.98. At French Frigate Shoals and Laysan Island, the higher numbers of tagged pups allowed separate estimates of male and female survival to be calculated. These rates suggested that survival of immature females was better than males. Beginning in 1989, survival of immature seals at French Frigate Shoals declined sharply.     

Population-level impacts of natural and anthropogenic causes-of-death for Hawaiian monk seals in the main Hawaiian Islands

Identifying, assessing, and ranking the impact of individual threats is fundamental to the conservation and recovery of rare and endangered species. In this analysis, we quantify not only the frequency of specific causes-of-death (CODs) among Main Hawaiian Island (MHI) monk seals, but also assess the impact of individual CODs on the intrinsic growth rate, λ, of the MHI population. We used gross necropsy results, histopathology, and other evidence to assign probabilities of 11 COD types to each mortality and then used Monte Carlo sampling to evaluate the influence of each COD on λ. By right censoring realizations involving specific CODs, we were able to estimate λ (and its associated uncertainty) when CODs were selectively removed from influencing survival. Applying the analysis to all known and inferred deaths believed to have occurred 2004–2019, the CODs with the largest influence on λ were anthropogenic trauma, anthropogenic drowning, and protozoal disease. In aggregate, anthropogenic CODs had a larger effect on the growth rate than either natural or disease CODs. Possible bias associated with differential carcass detection, recovery, and COD classification are discussed.     

Body growth in Hawaiian monk seals

Body length and axillary girth measurements of more than 600 free‐ranging Hawaiian monk seals from 1 to 20 yr old were analyzed. Comparison of fitted von Bertalanffy growth models confirmed there is no evidence of sexual dimorphism in this species. Substantial differences in growth patterns were detected among seven subpopulations representing the species entire geographic range. The age at which seals would be expected to attain a reference length of 180 cm ranged from just over 3 yr up to almost 7 yr at the various sites. Subpopulations exhibiting slower growth have previously been found to also exhibit lower age‐specific reproductive rates. Differences in growth of seals among sites likely indicate varying environmental conditions determining growth during the time periods represented in the sampled data.     

ANNUAL REPRODUCTIVE CYCLE OF THE FEMALE HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL (MONACHUS SCHAUINSLANDI)

Abstract: The annual reproductive cycle is described for the adult female Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ) from data collected at Laysan Island (1982–1991) and Lisianski Island (1982–1983) in the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands. Pupping, lactation, weaning, and molting were directly observed, while mating was rarely observed and was, therefore, inferred from the occurrence of mounting injuries and from adult male and female association patterns. Pooled birth rates during the study period were 0.544 for all adult-sized females and 0.675 for females parous in earlier years. For parturient females, pupping peaked in late March and early April, weaning in May, mounting injuries in May and June, and molting in July. For non-parturient females, the median mounting injury and molting dates occurred 17 and 28 days earlier, respectively. Pupping date set the timing of subsequent events in the annual cycle, but the timing of those events was adjusted by loss of the pup or poor physical condition of the female. Individual pupping patterns varied widely. The mean interval for births in consecutive years was 381 days; females that pupped in consecutive years gave birth later each season. Conversely, females who skipped a year or more gave birth earlier their next pupping season.     

EFFECTS OF RESEARCH HANDLING ON THE ENDANGERED HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL

We examined the effects of research handling on free-ranging endangered Hawaiian monk seals, Monachus schauinslandi , by analyzing differences in subsequent year survival, migration, and condition between handled seals and controls during 1983–1998. Each of 549 handled seals was matched to a control seal of the same age, sex, location, and year. Handling included instrumentation with tel metry devices ( n = 93), blood sampling ( n = 19), and tagging ( n = 437). No significant differences were found between handled seals and their controls in one-year resighting rates, observed migration rates, or condition. Resighting rates of handled and control seals were high (80%-100%). Available sample sizes were sufficient to detect reasonably small (9%-20%) differences in resighting rates had they existed among instrumented or tagged seals and controls (α= 0.05, power = 0.90). Too few seals were captured for blood sampling to detect even large differences in their resighting rates. However, blood samples were drawn from most instrumented seals, and there was no indication that this larger group suffered harmful effects. Duration of restraint during flipper tagging had no effect on subsequent probability of resighting. Our analysis suggests that conservative selection procedures and careful handling techniques have no deleterious effects on Hawaiian monk seals.     

Dramatic shifts in Hawaiian monk seal distribution predicted from divergent regional trends

Total estimated abundance of Hawaiian monk seals was just 1,161 individuals in 2008 and this number is decreasing. Most monk seals reside in the remote Northwestern Hawaiian Islands (NWHI) where the decline is approximately 4%/yr, whereas relatively fewer seals currently occupy the main Hawaiian Islands (MHI). It is widely accepted that the MHI population is increasing, although there are no formal estimates of total abundance, population growth rate or vital rates. This lack of information has hampered efforts to anticipate future scenarios and plan conservation measures. We present the first estimates of MHI monk seal survival and age‐specific reproductive rates. Using these rates, a conservative estimate of current MHI abundance and a previously published stochastic simulation model, we estimate the MHI population growth rate and projected abundance trend. Analogous estimates for the NWHI are derived from a much richer data set. Estimated survival from weaning to age 1 yr is 77% in the MHI, much higher than recent NWHI estimates ranging from 42% to 57%. Moreover, MHI females begin reproducing at a younger age and attain higher birth rates than observed in the NWHI. The estimated MHI intrinsic rate of population growth is 1.07 compared to a 0.89–0.96 range in the NWHI. Assuming an initial abundance of 152 animals in the MHI, projections indicate that if current demographic trends continue, abundance in the NWHI and MHI will equalize in approximately 15 yr. These results underscore the imperative to mitigate the NWHI decline while devoting conservation efforts to foster population growth in the MHI, where documented threats including fishery interactions, direct killing, and disease could rapidly undo the current fragile positive trend.     

REPRODUCTIVE PATTERNS OF THE HAWAIIAN MONK SEAL

We evaluated reproductive patterns of the Hawaiian monk seal ( Monachus schauinslandi ) using a combination of fitted age-specific reproductive curves and analysis of reproductive patterns of individual females. We review the difficulties inherent in the acquisition and modeling of reproductive data with emphasis on the significance of reproductive senescence to populations with dissimilar age/sex compositions. Validation of the fitted reproductive parameters was accomplished by Monte Carlo sampling of parameter distributions to compare the expected number of pups with the observed production. Although the fitted reproductive functions appear to provide an acceptable fit to the raw reproductive data, we found that the fitted curves did a poor job of predicting the actual pup production in individual years because of high variability among years. To further verify, and elaborate on, the patterns in the pooled (multi-seal, and multi-year) rates, we examined attributes of the reproductive performance of individual seals. The attributes included age of primiparity, reproductive rates computed over several age ranges, and the relationship between reproductive performance and seal longevity. Analysis of individual seal patterns reinforced the conclusion that reproductive senescence is operative in monk seal populations.     

USE OF DISCOVERY CURVES TO ASSESS ABUNDANCE OF HAWAIIAN MONK SEALS

We investigated the pattern of first sighting of individual seals over the course of a field season, or the "discovery curve," as a means for estimating abundance of the endangered Hawaiian monk seal, Monachus schauinslandi . We empirically derived a criterion to determine whether or not total enumeration had been accomplished at a given site and year. When greater than 100-h field effort was expended without a new individual being identified, we concluded that total enumeration was likely achieved. To evaluate the potential for estimating abundance through extrapolation of nonlinear asymptotic functions fitted to discovery curves, we conducted simulations under a range of capture probability scenarios, including some based on observed individual variability in monk seal sighting frequencies. We demonstrated that if capture heterogeneity existed among individuals, the fitted asymptotes tended to yield biased estimates of abundance. Moreover, the levels of bias and uncertainty tended to increase inversely with the proportion of the population identified. While extrapolation shows little promise for generating unbiased abundance estimates, discovery curves have practical appeal for determining whether total enumeration has been achieved, and for optimizing field effort allocation. This is especially true for relatively small, closed populations of marked individuals.