A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Effect of feeding boxes on the behavior of stereotyping amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Zurich Zoo,Zurich, Switzerland

The stereotyped pacing shown by the two Amur tigers in the Zurich Zoo was hypothesized as being caused by permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior. Several electrically controlled feeding boxes were installed and access to each box was possible only twice a day for 15 min at semi‐random times. The boxes had to be opened actively by the tigers. Two trials were carried out: one with solitary confinement, and one with paired confinement. During box feeding, the female's stereotyped pacing was significantly reduced from 16% (solitary confinement, conventional feeding) and 7% (paired confinement, conventional feeding) to 1% (solitary confinement) and less than 0.01% (paired confinement) of the daily observed time. The female's sleeping increased significantly in both solitary and paired confinement. The male only showed a significant reduction in stereotyped pacing behavior when kept with the female (conventional feeding: 10%; box feeding: <0.01% of the daily observed time). On days with a box‐feeding regime in paired confinement, the male spent 25% (83 min) of the observed time with active behavior at the feeding boxes. The results support the hypothesis that permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior causes stereotyped pacing in adult tigers. Zoo Biol 21:573–584, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Effect of hypoxia on immediate ventilatory load response in dogs.

The effective elastance of the respiratory system (which has been previously shown to provide an index of the ability of the respiratory musculature to compensate rapidly for transient mechanical ventilatory loads) was measured in six hypoxic dogs to determine whether hypoxia hindered immediate load-compensatory mechanisms. The effective elastance value was computed from measurements of control tidal volume and the pressure developed at the airway opening during the first inspiratory effort following airway occlusion at FRC. The mean effective elastance was 197 cmH2O/l while the animals were breathing room air and did not change significantly when the animals were rendered hypoxic by reducing the inspired oxygen concentration, in five dogs, or by controlled hemorrhage, in two dogs. It was concluded that inasmuch as effective elastance measurements remain constant during hypoxia, the stability of ventilation is not significantly impaired in this situation.     

Human λ light chain locus: Organization and DNA sequences of three genomicJ regions

Evidence for the genomic organization of human lambda light chain joining (J) region gene segments is presented. A mouse J probe was used in Southern hybridizations to localize joining region sequences in a cosmid clone containing the genomic cluster of six human lambda constant (C) region gene segments. The results of these hybridizations suggest the presence of at least one J gene segment upstream from each constant region gene segment. The DNA sequences indicate that the human JI, J2, and J3 gene segments have consensus nonamer and heptamer sequences, proposed to be involved in V-J joining, are capable of encoding the known amino acid sequences for the respective J peptides, and have a sequence which could give functional RNA splice site at the end of their coding regions. Our data show that a single functional J is located 1.3 or 1.6 kb upstream of each of the C gene segments known to encode the Mcg, Kern^– Oz^–, and Kern^–Oz⁺ isotypes. Therefore, the gene organization of this region of the human lambda locus is J1 CI -J2C2-J3C3. The DNA sequences ofJ 1,J 2, andJ 3 presented in this paper establish that a singleJ gene segment precedes each expressed C gene segment, and support a model for the evolution of the human JC clusters where JICI andJ2C2-J3C3. arose from different ancestral JC units.     

Operculum closing as a defence against predatory leeches in four British freshwater prosobranch snails

The defence reaction of operculum closing in response to the presence of the molluscivorous leech Glossiphonia complanata (L.) and the non-molluscivorous Erpobdella octoculata (L.) was studied in four species of freshwater prosobranch gastropod. Bithynia tentaculata (L.) and Valvata piscinalis (Müller) can distinguish between the leeches, reacting only to G. complanata. V. piscinalis is capable of a greater degree of distance chemoreception of the leech ‘scent’. Valvata cristata Müller and Potamopyrgus jenkinsi (Smith) did not react to either leech. V. cristata may not be a potential prey item for G. complanata, while P. jenkinsi is fed on by the leech, but is a relative newcomer to the freshwater fauna. Animal Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford Commonwealth Forestry Institute, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford     

Ethanol vapours above lacrimal fluid in the rabbit

Ethanol was administered intravenously to rabbits. The concentration of ethanol, determined by gas chromatographic analysis, in lacrimal fluid was shown to reflect the concentration in plasma. The vapour above lacrimal fluid was analyzed in situ by the use of a small resistivity sensor that measures ethanol vapours. After a dose of approximately 750 mg/kg, the metabolic rates of ethanol determined by gas chromatographic analysis of plasma (226 +/- 13 mg.kg-1.h-1) and by eye ethanol vapour analysis (210 +/- 8 mg.kg-1.h-1) were virtually identical. The data suggest that ethanol eye vapour analysis may be an attractive, noninvasive method for the determination of ethanol in animals.