A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Long-Term Safety of Repeated Blood-Brain Barrier Opening via Focused Ultrasound with Microbubbles in Non-Human Primates Performing a Cognitive Task

Focused Ultrasound (FUS) coupled with intravenous administration of microbubbles (MB) is a non-invasive technique that has been shown to reliably open (increase the permeability of) the blood-brain barrier (BBB) in multiple in vivo models including non-human primates (NHP). This procedure has shown promise for clinical and basic science applications, yet the safety and potential neurological effects of long term application in NHP requires further investigation under parameters shown to be efficacious in that species (500kHz, 200–400 kPa, 4–5μm MB, 2 minute sonication). In this study, we repeatedly opened the BBB in the caudate and putamen regions of the basal ganglia of 4 NHP using FUS with systemically-administered MB over 4–20 months. We assessed the safety of the FUS with MB procedure using MRI to detect edema or hemorrhaging in the brain. Contrast enhanced T1-weighted MRI sequences showed a 98% success rate for openings in the targeted regions. T2-weighted and SWI sequences indicated a lack edema in the majority of the cases. We investigated potential neurological effects of the FUS with MB procedure through quantitative cognitive testing of’ visual, cognitive, motivational, and motor function using a random dot motion task with reward magnitude bias presented on a touchpanel display. Reaction times during the task significantly increased on the day of the FUS with MB procedure. This increase returned to baseline within 4–5 days after the procedure. Visual motion discrimination thresholds were unaffected. Our results indicate FUS with MB can be a safe method for repeated opening of the BBB at the basal ganglia in NHP for up to 20 months without any long-term negative physiological or neurological effects with the parameters used.     

Effect of feeding boxes on the behavior of stereotyping amur tigers (Panthera tigris altaica) in the Zurich Zoo,Zurich, Switzerland

The stereotyped pacing shown by the two Amur tigers in the Zurich Zoo was hypothesized as being caused by permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior. Several electrically controlled feeding boxes were installed and access to each box was possible only twice a day for 15 min at semi‐random times. The boxes had to be opened actively by the tigers. Two trials were carried out: one with solitary confinement, and one with paired confinement. During box feeding, the female's stereotyped pacing was significantly reduced from 16% (solitary confinement, conventional feeding) and 7% (paired confinement, conventional feeding) to 1% (solitary confinement) and less than 0.01% (paired confinement) of the daily observed time. The female's sleeping increased significantly in both solitary and paired confinement. The male only showed a significant reduction in stereotyped pacing behavior when kept with the female (conventional feeding: 10%; box feeding: <0.01% of the daily observed time). On days with a box‐feeding regime in paired confinement, the male spent 25% (83 min) of the observed time with active behavior at the feeding boxes. The results support the hypothesis that permanently frustrated appetitive foraging behavior causes stereotyped pacing in adult tigers. Zoo Biol 21:573–584, 2002. © 2002 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

Temporal and spatial differences in the emission of calls by pipistrelle bats<Emphasis Type="Italic">Pipistrellus pipistrellus</Emphasis> and<Emphasis Type="Italic">P. pygmaeus</Emphasis>

The number of orientation, feeding and social calls emitted by pipistrelle batsPipistrellus pipistrellus Schreber, 1774 andP. pygmaeus Leach, 1825 was recorded throughout the night at eight different sites. Social calls were unaffected by weather variables, whereas orientation calls and feeding buzzes were both significantly affected by cloud and temperature conditions. The number of emissions of each call type was significantly different between sites, indicating that the bats used different sites for different activities. Significant positive correlations between all three combinations of call types occurred only during the middle of the night, corresponding with the nadir of flying insects. This suggests that bats were engaged in activities other than feeding at this time, such as territory protection or mate attraction.     

Modelling ultraviolet exposures in a school environment.

A technique has been developed to represent erythemally effective ultraviolet radiation exposure within a school environment. The technique models the erythemally effective exposure onto a horizontal plane representation of a mapped school environment located in Hervey Bay (25 degrees S, 153 degrees E), Australia. The input parameters used to model the ultraviolet exposures received within the school playground included the measured sky view, ground albedo and standing surface albedo. Estimates of the erythemally effective ultraviolet exposure received within the school playground during morning tea and lunch time meal breaks during a winter and summer school day are presented. The influence of tree shade and building structure was found to vary significantly with solar zenith angle modelled over the winter and summer school meal break times with horizontal plane exposures predicted to vary from between 0 and 7 SED at different locations within the playground. The technique presented provides a method that can be followed to examine the effect of surrounding buildings and surface structures of real environments on the predicted horizontal plane ultraviolet exposure.     

Human λ light chain locus: Organization and DNA sequences of three genomicJ regions

Evidence for the genomic organization of human lambda light chain joining (J) region gene segments is presented. A mouse J probe was used in Southern hybridizations to localize joining region sequences in a cosmid clone containing the genomic cluster of six human lambda constant (C) region gene segments. The results of these hybridizations suggest the presence of at least one J gene segment upstream from each constant region gene segment. The DNA sequences indicate that the human JI, J2, and J3 gene segments have consensus nonamer and heptamer sequences, proposed to be involved in V-J joining, are capable of encoding the known amino acid sequences for the respective J peptides, and have a sequence which could give functional RNA splice site at the end of their coding regions. Our data show that a single functional J is located 1.3 or 1.6 kb upstream of each of the C gene segments known to encode the Mcg, Kern^– Oz^–, and Kern^–Oz⁺ isotypes. Therefore, the gene organization of this region of the human lambda locus is J1 CI -J2C2-J3C3. The DNA sequences ofJ 1,J 2, andJ 3 presented in this paper establish that a singleJ gene segment precedes each expressed C gene segment, and support a model for the evolution of the human JC clusters where JICI andJ2C2-J3C3. arose from different ancestral JC units.     

Operculum closing as a defence against predatory leeches in four British freshwater prosobranch snails

The defence reaction of operculum closing in response to the presence of the molluscivorous leech Glossiphonia complanata (L.) and the non-molluscivorous Erpobdella octoculata (L.) was studied in four species of freshwater prosobranch gastropod. Bithynia tentaculata (L.) and Valvata piscinalis (Müller) can distinguish between the leeches, reacting only to G. complanata. V. piscinalis is capable of a greater degree of distance chemoreception of the leech ‘scent’. Valvata cristata Müller and Potamopyrgus jenkinsi (Smith) did not react to either leech. V. cristata may not be a potential prey item for G. complanata, while P. jenkinsi is fed on by the leech, but is a relative newcomer to the freshwater fauna. Animal Ecology Research Group, Department of Zoology, University of Oxford Commonwealth Forestry Institute, Department of Plant Sciences, University of Oxford