The Empirical Analysis of Cigarette Tax Avoidance and Illicit Trade in Vietnam, 1998-2010

Illicit trade carries the potential to magnify existing tobacco-related health care costs through increased availability of untaxed and inexpensive cigarettes. What is known with respect to the magnitude of illicit trade for Vietnam is produced primarily by the industry, and methodologies are typically opaque. Independent assessment of the illicit cigarette trade in Vietnam is vital to tobacco control policy. This paper measures the magnitude of illicit cigarette trade for Vietnam between 1998 and 2010 using two methods, discrepancies between legitimate domestic cigarette sales and domestic tobacco consumption estimated from surveys, and trade discrepancies as recorded by Vietnam and trade partners. The results indicate that Vietnam likely experienced net smuggling in during the period studied. With the inclusion of adjustments for survey respondent under-reporting, inward illicit trade likely occurred in three of the four years for which surveys were available. Discrepancies in trade records indicate that the value of smuggled cigarettes into Vietnam ranges from $100 million to $300 million between 2000 and 2010 and that these cigarettes primarily originate in Singapore, Hong Kong, Macao, Malaysia, and Australia. Notable differences in trends over time exist between the two methods, but by comparison, the industry estimates consistently place the magnitude of illicit trade at the upper bounds of what this study shows. The unavailability of annual, survey-based estimates of consumption may obscure the true, annual trend over time. Second, as surveys changed over time, estimates relying on them may be inconsistent with one another. Finally, these two methods measure different components of illicit trade, specifically consumption of illicit cigarettes regardless of origin and smuggling of cigarettes into a particular market. However, absent a gold standard, comparisons of different approaches to illicit trade measurement serve efforts to refine and improve measurement approaches and estimates.     

Variability over time and correlates of cholesterol and blood pressure in systemic lupus erythematosus: a longitudinal cohort study

Introduction  

Total cholesterol (TC) and blood pressure (BP) are likely to take a dynamic course over time in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). This would have important implications in terms of using single-point-in-time measurements of these variables to assess coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. The objective of this study was to describe and quantify variability over time of TC and BP among patients with SLE and to determine their correlates.     

Ultrastructure of a Hexagonal Array in Exosporium of a Highly Sporogenic Mutant of Clostridium botulinum Type A Revealed by Electron Microscopy Using Optical Diffraction and Filtration

The ultrastructure of a hexagonal array in the exosporium from spores of a highly sporogenic mutant of Clostridium botulinum type A strain 190L was studied by electron microscopy of negatively stained exosporium fragments using optical diffraction and filtration. The exosporium was composed of three or more lamellae showing an equilateral, hexagonal periodicity. Images of the single exosporium layer from which the noise had been filtered optically revealed that the hexagonally arranged, morphological unit of the exosporium was composed of three globular subunits about 2.1 nm in diameter which were arranged at the vertices of an equilateral triangle with sides of about 2.4 nm. The morphological units were arranged with a spacing of about 4.5 nm. The adjacent globular subunits appeared to be interconnected by delicate linkers.     

Protistan microbial observatory in the Cariaco Basin,Caribbean. I. Pyrosequencing vs Sanger insights into species richness

Microbial diversity and distribution are topics of intensive research. In two companion papers in this issue, we describe the results of the Cariaco Microbial Observatory (Caribbean Sea, Venezuela). The Basin contains the largest body of marine anoxic water, and presents an opportunity to study protistan communities across biogeochemical gradients. In the first paper, we survey 18S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequence diversity using both Sanger- and pyrosequencing-based approaches, employing multiple PCR primers, and state-of-the-art statistical analyses to estimate microbial richness missed by the survey. Sampling the Basin at three stations, in two seasons, and at four depths with distinct biogeochemical regimes, we obtained the largest, and arguably the least biased collection of over 6000 nearly full-length protistan rRNA gene sequences from a given oceanographic regime to date, and over 80 000 pyrosequencing tags. These represent all major and many minor protistan taxa, at frequencies globally similar between the two sequence collections. This large data set provided, via the recently developed parametric modeling, the first statistically sound prediction of the total size of protistan richness in a large and varied environment, such as the Cariaco Basin: over 36 000 species, defined as almost full-length 18S rRNA gene sequence clusters sharing over 99% sequence homology. This richness is a small fraction of the grand total of known protists (over 100 000–500 000 species), suggesting a degree of protistan endemism.     

Semen cryopreservation in golden‐headed lion tamarin,Leontopithecus chrysomelas

Wild animal genetic resource banking (GRB) represents a valuable tool in conservation breeding programs, particularly in cases involving endangered species such as the golden‐headed lion tamarin (Leontopithecus chrysomelas). Thus, we aimed to assess a sperm freezing protocol for golden‐headed lion tamarins using two different exenders: BotuBOV® (BB) and Test Yolk Buffer® (TYB). Ejaculates were collected by penile vibrostimulation from animals housed at São Paulo Zoological Park Foundation, São Paulo, Brazil, and after immediate analysis, two aliquots were diluted in BB and TYB. Postthawing samples were evaluated for total and progressive motility, plasma membrane and acrosome integrities, mitochondrial activity, susceptibility to oxidative stress, and sperm–egg‐binding. No differences between BB and TYB were found for most seminal parameters, except for acrosome integrity and susceptibility to oxidative stress (in both cases BB showed higher values). However, in spite of these differences and regardless of the extender used, postthaw sperm motility and viability with the described protocol were encouraging (on average >50% and >80%, respectively), indicating that sperm cryopreservation may be a short‐term measure for the conservation of golden‐headed lion tamarins.     

Metabolites in Blood for Prediction of Bacteremic Sepsis in the Emergency Room

A metabolomics approach for prediction of bacteremic sepsis in patients in the emergency room (ER) was investigated. In a prospective study, whole blood samples from 65 patients with bacteremic sepsis and 49 ER controls were compared. The blood samples were analyzed using gas chromatography coupled to time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Multivariate and logistic regression modeling using metabolites identified by chromatography or using conventional laboratory parameters and clinical scores of infection were employed. A predictive model of bacteremic sepsis with 107 metabolites was developed and validated. The number of metabolites was reduced stepwise until identifying a set of 6 predictive metabolites. A 6-metabolite predictive logistic regression model showed a sensitivity of 0.91(95% CI 0.69–0.99) and a specificity 0.84 (95% CI 0.58–0.94) with an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89–1.01). Myristic acid was the single most predictive metabolite, with a sensitivity of 1.00 (95% CI 0.85–1.00) and specificity of 0.95 (95% CI 0.74–0.99), and performed better than various combinations of conventional laboratory and clinical parameters. We found that a metabolomics approach for analysis of acute blood samples was useful for identification of patients with bacteremic sepsis. Metabolomics should be further evaluated as a new tool for infection diagnostics.     

Provisioning of Game Meat to Rural Communities as a Benefit of Sport Hunting in Zambia

Sport hunting has reportedly multiple benefits to economies and local communities; however, few of these benefits have been quantified. As part of their lease agreements with the Zambia Wildlife Authority, sport hunting operators in Zambia are required to provide annually to local communities free of charge i.e., provision a percentage of the meat obtained through sport hunting. We characterized provisioning of game meat to rural communities by the sport hunting industry in Zambia for three game management areas (GMAs) during 2004–2011. Rural communities located within GMAs where sport hunting occurred received on average > 6,000 kgs per GMA of fresh game meat annually from hunting operators. To assess hunting industry compliance, we also compared the amount of meat expected as per the lease agreements versus observed amounts of meat provisioned from three GMAs during 2007–2009. In seven of eight annual comparisons of these GMAs, provisioning of meat exceeded what was required in the lease agreements. Provisioning occurred throughout the hunting season and peaked during the end of the dry season (September–October) coincident with when rural Zambians are most likely to encounter food shortages. We extrapolated our results across all GMAs and estimated 129,771 kgs of fresh game meat provisioned annually by the sport hunting industry to rural communities in Zambia at an approximate value for the meat alone of >US$600,000 exclusive of distribution costs. During the hunting moratorium (2013–2014), this supply of meat has halted, likely adversely affecting rural communities previously reliant on this food source. Proposed alternatives to sport hunting should consider protein provisioning in addition to other benefits (e.g., employment, community pledges, anti-poaching funds) that rural Zambian communities receive from the sport hunting industry.