The Monofactorial Model for Recurrence Risks with Generalized Penetrance

Recurrence risks are derived explicitly in terms of gene frequencies and penetrance coefficients for the general case in which all genotypes have incomplete penetrance. Maximum likelihood estimation of recurrence risks is achieved through the use of the semi-symmetric intraclass contingency table. The resulting formulas and estimation procedure can be useful for the analysis of population and family data, and in genetic counselling.     

Problems concerning the operation of high productivity biomass fermentations using volatile liquid hydrocarbon feedstocks

The possibilities of using liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) heavy ends, predominantly volatile liquid n-alkanes (a location-specific hydrocarbon feedstock) for single-cell protein (SCP) production are examined against criteria established to define potentially attractive SCP production processes. The factors discussed include the use of the heat of vaporization for fermentor cooling, the efficiency of conversion of nalkane vapors, problems of maintaining constant composition substrates when feeding volatile liquid n-alkane vapors to laboratory fermentors, the possible solvent effect of liquid n-alkanes, and the possibilities of competitive inhibition. The study confirms that mixed volatile n-alkane feedstocks will introduce major physical and biological problems for both product and process research and development. Even when the technical problems are solved, the economic question of whether a direct production route using the feedstock as the fermentation substrate or an indirect route involving the conversion of the feedstock, by chemical means, into methanol, which can then be used as the fermentation substrate, needs careful examination.     

Loss of small glaciers will diminish beta diversity in Pyrenean streams at two levels of biological organization

Aim Small (< 1 km²) alpine glaciers are likely to disappear in this century, resulting in decreased regional habitat heterogeneity in associated streams. Both heterogeneity within and spatial isolation among glacier‐influenced streams can enhance beta diversity of stream‐dwelling organisms. We measured beta at both community and population‐genetic levels within and among streams currently influenced by small Pyrenean glaciers. We aimed to evaluate whether patterns are analogous between the two levels, to apply various approaches for characterizing beta, and to infer the outcome of future glacier loss on regional biodiversity. Location Four glacier‐fed basins in the Parc National des Pyrénées, France. Methods We classified each of 18 stream reaches across the basins into either high‐, mid‐ or low‐‘glaciality’ (glacial influence) groups according to four physicochemical characteristics. At each reach, we collected macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated mitochondrial DNA haplotypes for 11–13 individuals of Baetis alpinus Pictet. Using taxa/haplotypes as basic units, we evaluated community and population‐genetic beta diversity simultaneously. We measured beta diversity in three major ways: as multivariate (Sørensen's dissimilarity, Jost D) and ‘classical’ (gamma/alpha) variation to compare among glaciality groups, and as turnover along the glaciality gradient within each basin. Results For most approaches at both organizational levels, beta was greatest among high‐glaciality reaches, absolute values of variation of beta in high‐glaciality streams were strikingly similar between levels, and the steepest turnover within basins occurred between high‐ and mid‐glaciality reaches. Therefore, high‐glaciality reaches contained assemblages and populations that were unique both within that stream type (among basins) and compared with other stream types within basins. Main conclusions Parallel beta diversity patterns at population‐genetic and community levels suggested that environmental drivers influence these levels analogously. Extreme conditions (e.g. low temperature, high instability, isolation) in high‐glaciality streams probably enhance beta at both levels. Stream beta diversity is likely to decrease substantially with continued glacial reduction in this system.     

An Epidemiological Study of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Al-Jabal Al-Gharbi,Libya

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is an endemic parasitic infection in the Mediterranean region, including Libya and its Al-jabal Al-gharbi province. We aimed at studying the occupational relevance as well as other epidemiological aspects of CL. We investigated 140 CL cases who attended at Gharyan outpatient polyclinic during a period of 6 months in 2009. CL infection was clinically diagnosed and confirmed by demonstration of Leishmania parasites on smears from lesions. Our findings showed that males were more affected than females (P=0.04), and people above 10-years were more affected than younger ones (P=0.0001). A significant percent of CL cases belonged to Al-Kawasem subprovince (P=0.0001). Farm-related activities were the most frequent occupations among CL cases (P=0.04). In addition to farm workers, housewives and students are at risk groups since they are engaged at farm activities. Moreover, those who have occupations that require staying outdoors for a part of night, e.g., policemen, are also at risk. Compared to children, adult CL patients had multiple lesions (P=0.001) that were more prevalent in their upper and lower extremities than the face (P=0.0001). We conclude that CL is a major health problem in Al-jabal Al-gharbi province of Libya. The presence of rodents and sandflies makes it a suitable environment for Leishmania to spread in an endemic epidemiological pattern. Being engaged in farming activities or outdoor occupations increases the risk of infection. Various clinical patterns of CL suggest the presence of more than 1 species of Leishmania at Al-jabal Al-gharbi province. We propose that the 2 species responsible for CL in this area are L. major and L. tropica. Further investigations to identify the leishmanial species responsible for CL at Al-jabal Al-gharbi together with adoption of preventive and control programs are needed.     

Extreme drought pushes stream invertebrate communities over functional thresholds

Functional traits are increasingly being used to predict extinction risks and range shifts under long‐term climate change scenarios, but have rarely been used to study vulnerability to extreme climatic events, such as supraseasonal droughts. In streams, drought intensification can cross thresholds of habitat loss, where marginal changes in environmental conditions trigger disproportionate biotic responses. However, these thresholds have been studied only from a structural perspective, and the existence of functional nonlinearity remains unknown. We explored trends in invertebrate community functional traits along a gradient of drought intensity, simulated over 18 months, using mesocosms analogous to lowland headwater streams. We modelled the responses of 16 traits based on a priori predictions of trait filtering by drought, and also examined the responses of trait profile groups (TPGs) identified via hierarchical cluster analysis. As responses to drought intensification were both linear and nonlinear, generalized additive models (GAMs) were chosen to model response curves, with the slopes of fitted splines used to detect functional thresholds during drought. Drought triggered significant responses in 12 (75%) of the a priori‐selected traits. Behavioural traits describing movement (dispersal, locomotion) and diet were sensitive to moderate‐intensity drought, as channels fragmented into isolated pools. By comparison, morphological and physiological traits showed little response until surface water was lost, at which point we observed sudden shifts in body size, respiration mode and thermal tolerance. Responses varied widely among TPGs, ranging from population collapses of non‐aerial dispersers as channels fragmented to irruptions of small, eurythermic dietary generalists upon extreme dewatering. Our study demonstrates for the first time that relatively small changes in drought intensity can trigger disproportionately large functional shifts in stream communities, suggesting that traits‐based approaches could be particularly useful for diagnosing catastrophic ecological responses to global change.     

Distribution,degree of damage and risk of spread of Trioza erytreae (Hemiptera: Triozidae) in Kenya

The African citrus triozid (ACT), Trioza erytreae Del Guercio, is a destructive pest particularly on citrus, and vectors, “Candidatus” Liberibacter africanus (CLaf), which is the causal agent of the African citrus greening disease. Our study seeks to establish the distribution and host‐plant relationship of ACT across citrus production areas in Kenya. We also modelled the risk of spread using the maximum entropy modelling algorithm with known occurrence data. Our results infer that ACT is widely distributed and causes severe damage to four alternative host plants belonging to the family Rutaceae. The adults, immature stages (eggs and nymphs), galls and the percentage of infested leaves were significantly higher in shaded than unshaded trees. However, adult ACTs preferred Kenyan highlands to Victoria Lake and coastal regions. The average area under the curve of the model predictions was 0.97, indicating an optimal model performance. The environmental variables that most influenced the prediction were the precipitation of wettest quarter, precipitation of wettest month, mean diurnal range, temperature seasonality and mean temperature of the coldest quarter. The current prediction of ACT exceeded its existing range, especially in the Western, Nyanza, Central, Rift valley and Eastern regions of Kenya. The model predicted a contraction of suitable habitats for a potential spread in 2040 with an inland shift to higher altitudes in the cooler regions. The potential for further expansion to climatically suitable areas was more pronounced for the 2080 forecast. These findings provide relevant information to improve monitoring/surveillance and designing IPM strategies to limit its spread and damage.