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We observed changes with time in the patterns of characteristic fluke markings used to identify sperm whales. Changes were categorized as minor, moderate, or major based on their severity. These change types were found to occur at rates of 0.9%, 11.8%, and 1.3% per individual per year, respectively. Gain and loss rates for each of seven different mark types were also calculated. The highest estimated rate was the gain of small nicks at 0.08 per individual per year. Most individuals identified by us possess at least a few characteristic marks and, therefore, changes of the type observed in this study are unlikely to severely affect their recognizability. For all but one mark type, gain rates were higher than loss rates, indicating that individuals may be accumulating marks with age. Over long periods this could eventually make individuals unrecognizable, with the result that population sizes calculated from these data may be overestimated. As long as photoidentification studies are conducted sufficiently often, and these changes are as gradual as they appear to be, this problem should be minimal.  相似文献   
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ABSTRACT Conventional distance sampling, the most-used method of estimating animal density and abundance, requires ranges to detected individuals, which are not easily measured for vocalizations. However, in some circumstances the sequential pattern of detection of vocalizations along a transect line gives information about the range of detection. Thus, from a one-dimensional acoustic point-transect survey (i.e., records of vocalizations detected or not detected at regularly spaced listening stations) it is possible to obtain a useful estimate of density or abundance. I developed equations for estimation of density for one-dimensional surveys. Using simulations I found that for the method to have little bias when both range of detection and rate of vocalization need to be estimated, stations needed to be spaced at 30–80% of the range of detection and the rate of vocalization should be >0.7. If either the range of detection or rate of vocalization is known, conditions are relaxed, and when both parameters are known the method works well almost universally. In favorable conditions for one-dimensional methods, estimated abundances have overall errors not much larger than those from conventional line-transect distance sampling. The methods appeared useful when applied to real acoustic data from whale surveys. The techniques may also be useful in surveys with nonacoustic detection of animals.  相似文献   
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A continuum of paired comparisons models   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
STERN  HAL 《Biometrika》1990,77(2):265-273
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ABSTRACT We assessed variation in reporting probabilities of standard bands among species, populations, harvest locations, and size classes of North American geese to enable estimation of unbiased harvest probabilities. We included reward (US$10, $20, $30, $50, or $100) and control ($0) banded geese from 16 recognized goose populations of 4 species: Canada (Branta canadensis), cackling (B. hutchinsii), Ross's (Chen rossii), and snow geese (C. caerulescens). We incorporated spatially explicit direct recoveries and live recaptures into a multinomial model to estimate reporting, harvest, and band-retention probabilities. We compared various models for estimating harvest probabilities at country (United States vs. Canada), flyway (5 administrative regions), and harvest area (i.e., flyways divided into northern and southern sections) scales. Mean reporting probability of standard bands was 0.73 (95% CI = 0.69–0.77). Point estimates of reporting probabilities for goose populations or spatial units varied from 0.52 to 0.93, but confidence intervals for individual estimates overlapped and model selection indicated that models with species, population, or spatial effects were less parsimonious than those without these effects. Our estimates were similar to recently reported estimates for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos). We provide current harvest probability estimates for these populations using our direct measures of reporting probability, improving the accuracy of previous estimates obtained from recovery probabilities alone. Goose managers and researchers throughout North America can use our reporting probabilities to correct recovery probabilities estimated from standard banding operations for deriving spatially explicit harvest probabilities.  相似文献   
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The mechanisms that determine population structure in highly mobile marine species are poorly understood, but useful towards understanding the evolution of diversity, and essential for effective conservation and management. In this study, we compare putative sperm whale populations located in the Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic, Mediterranean Sea and North Sea using mtDNA control region sequence data and 16 polymorphic microsatellite loci. The Gulf of Mexico, western North Atlantic and North Sea populations each possessed similar low levels of haplotype and nucleotide diversity at the mtDNA locus, while the Mediterranean Sea population showed no detectable mtDNA diversity. Mitochondrial DNA results showed significant differentiation between all populations, while microsatellites showed significant differentiation only for comparisons with the Mediterranean Sea, and at a much lower level than seen for mtDNA. Samples from either side of the North Atlantic in coastal waters showed no differentiation for mtDNA, while North Atlantic samples from just outside the Gulf of Mexico (the western North Atlantic sample) were highly differentiated from samples within the Gulf at this locus. Our analyses indicate a previously unknown fidelity of females to coastal basins either side of the North Atlantic, and suggest the movement of males among these populations for breeding.  相似文献   
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