Dealing with Uncertainty in Spatially Explicit Population Models

It has been argued that spatially explicit population models (SEPMs) cannot provide reliable guidance for conservation biology because of the difficulty of obtaining direct estimates for their demographic and dispersal parameters and because of error propagation. We argue that appropriate model calibration procedures can access additional sources of information, compensating the lack of direct parameter estimates. Our objective is to show how model calibration using population-level data can facilitate the construction of SEPMs that produce reliable predictions for conservation even when direct parameter estimates are inadequate. We constructed a spatially explicit and individual-based population model for the dynamics of brown bears (Ursus arctos) after a reintroduction program in Austria. To calibrate the model we developed a procedure that compared the simulated population dynamics with distinct features of the known population dynamics (=patterns). This procedure detected model parameterizations that did not reproduce the known dynamics. Global sensitivity analysis of the uncalibrated model revealed high uncertainty in most model predictions due to large parameter uncertainties (coefficients of variation CV 0.8). However, the calibrated model yielded predictions with considerably reduced uncertainty (CV 0.2). A pattern or a combination of various patterns that embed information on the entire model dynamics can reduce the uncertainty in model predictions, and the application of different patterns with high information content yields the same model predictions. In contrast, a pattern that does not embed information on the entire population dynamics (e.g., bear observations taken from sub-areas of the study area) does not reduce uncertainty in model predictions. Because population-level data for defining (multiple) patterns are often available, our approach could be applied widely.     

Expression of mutated cationic trypsinogen reduces cellular viability in AR4-2J cells

Mutations in the human cationic trypsinogen are associated with hereditary pancreatitis. The cDNA coding for human cationic trypsinogen was subcloned into the expression vector pcDNA3. The mutations R122H, N29I, A16V, D22G, and K23R were introduced by site directed mutagenesis. We constructed an expression vector coding for active trypsin by subcloning the cDNA of trypsin lacking the coding region for the trypsin activating peptide behind an appropriate signal peptide. Expression of protein was verified by Western blot and measurement of enzymatic activity. AR4-2J cells were transiently transfected with the different expression vectors and cell viability and intracellular caspase-3 activity were quantified. In contrast to wild-type trypsinogen, expression of active trypsin and mutated trypsinogens reduced cell viability of AR4-2J cells. Expression of trypsin and R122H trypsinogen induced caspase-3 activity. Acinar cells might react to intracellular trypsin activity by triggering apoptosis.     

A Highlights from MBoC Selection: Motion of variable-length MreB filaments at the bacterial cell membrane influences cell morphology

The maintenance of rod-cell shape in many bacteria depends on actin-like MreB proteins and several membrane proteins that interact with MreB. Using superresolution microscopy, we show that at 50-nm resolution, Bacillus subtilis MreB forms filamentous structures of length up to 3.4 μm underneath the cell membrane, which run at angles diverging up to 40° relative to the cell circumference. MreB from Escherichia coli forms at least 1.4-μm-long filaments. MreB filaments move along various tracks with a maximal speed of 85 nm/s, and the loss of ATPase activity leads to the formation of extended and static filaments. Suboptimal growth conditions lead to formation of patch-like structures rather than extended filaments. Coexpression of wild-type MreB with MreB mutated in the subunit interface leads to formation of shorter MreB filaments and a strong effect on cell shape, revealing a link between filament length and cell morphology. Thus MreB has an extended-filament architecture with the potential to position membrane proteins over long distances, whose localization in turn may affect the shape of the cell wall.     

Agricultural resources in the Bronze Age city of Tel Lachish

Vegetation History and Archaeobotany - In this paper, we present the results of the plant macrofossil analyses from the site of Tel Lachish, Israel with focus on the botanical assemblage of the...     

The gliding speed of migrating birds: slow and safe or fast and risky?

Aerodynamic theory postulates that gliding airspeed, a major flight performance component for soaring avian migrants, scales with bird size and wing morphology. We tested this prediction, and the role of gliding altitude and soaring conditions, using atmospheric simulations and radar tracks of 1346 birds from 12 species. Gliding airspeed did not scale with bird size and wing morphology, and unexpectedly converged to a narrow range. To explain this discrepancy, we propose that soaring‐gliding birds adjust their gliding airspeed according to the risk of grounding or switching to costly flapping flight. Introducing the Risk Aversion Flight Index (RAFI, the ratio of actual to theoretical risk‐averse gliding airspeed), we found that inter‐ and intraspecific variation in RAFI positively correlated with wing loading, and negatively correlated with convective thermal conditions and gliding altitude, respectively. We propose that risk‐sensitive behaviour modulates the evolution (morphology) and ecology (response to environmental conditions) of bird soaring flight.     

Bacterial superantigens as anti-tumour agents: induction of tumour cytotoxicity in human lymphocytes by staphylococcal enterotoxin A

Summary Activation of lymphocytes by interleukin-2 (IL-2) induces lymphokine-activated killer (LAK) cells that show promising effects on tumour growth in clinical trials. We examined the effect of the superantigen staphylococcal enterotoxin A (SEA) on anti-tumour activity of freshly prepared human lymphocytes. Picomolar amounts of SEA rapidly induced cytotoxic activity against K562 and Raji cells as well as some natural-killer(NK)-resistant tumour cell lines. Cytotoxic activity was not dependent on target cell expression of either major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I or II antigens as shown using mutated cell lines. Cell-sorting experiments showed that the activity was expressed by NK (CD5^–CD56⁺) as well as T (CD5⁺) cells, although the former contained the majority of cytotoxic activity. NK cells could not be directly activated by SEA. In contrast, SEA activated purified T cells to the same extent as in bulk cultures. It is suggested that SEA activation of NK cells is secondary to that brought about by lymphokines produced by T cells. Activation of LAK cells with SEA was comparable in magnitude as well as target cell spectrum to that of IL-2. In addition to the LAK-like cytotoxic activity induced by SEA, a superimposed cytotoxicity towards target cells expressing MHC class II antigens coated with SEA was observed. This staphylococcal-enterotoxin-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity (SDCC) was exclusively mediated by T cells. It is well established that MHC class II antigens function as receptors for staphylococcal enterotoxins on mammalian cells and that the complex between MHC class II antigen and — SEA apparently functions as a target structure for activated T cells with target cell lysis as a consequence. Activation of T lymphocytes with IL-2 also resulted in the capability to mediate SDCC. Staphylococcal enterotoxins represent a novel way of inducing anti-tumour activity in human lymphocytes, which could be of value in therapeutic applications.     

Combining efficient conformational sampling with a deformable elastic network model facilitates structure refinement at low resolution

Structural studies of large proteins and protein assemblies are a difficult and pressing challenge in molecular biology. Experiments often yield only low-resolution or sparse data that are not sufficient to fully determine atomistic structures. We have developed a general geometry-based algorithm that efficiently samples conformational space under constraints imposed by low-resolution density maps obtained from electron microscopy or X-ray crystallography experiments. A deformable elastic network (DEN) is used to restrain the sampling to prior knowledge of an approximate structure. The DEN restraints dramatically reduce over-fitting, especially at low resolution. Cross-validation is used to optimally weight the structural information and experimental data. Our algorithm is robust even for noise-added density maps and has a large radius of convergence for our test case. The DEN restraints can also be used to enhance reciprocal space simulated annealing refinement.