Stochastic simulations of a multi-group compartmental model for Johne's disease on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention

Infection elimination may be an important goal of control programs. Only in stochastic infection models can true infection elimination be observed as a fadeout. The phenomena of fadeout and variable prevalence are important in understanding the transmission dynamics of infectious diseases and these phenomena are essential to evaluate the effectiveness of control measures. To investigate the stochastic dynamics of Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection on US dairy herds with test-based culling intervention, we developed a multi-group stochastic compartmental model (a continuous time Markov chain model) with both horizontal and vertical transmission. The stochastic model predicted fadeout and within-herd prevalence to have a large variance. Although test-based culling intervention generally decreased prevalence over time, it took longer than desired by producers to eliminate the endemic MAP infection from a herd. Uncertainty analysis showed that, using annual culture test and culling of only high shedders or culling of both low and high shedders with a 12-month delay in culling of low shedders, MAP infection persisted in many herds beyond 20 years. While using semi-annual culture test and culling of low and high shedders with a 6-month delay in culling of low shedders, MAP infection in many herds would be extinct within 20 years. Sensitivity analysis of the cumulative density function of fadeout suggested that combining test-based culling intervention and reduction of transmission rates through improved management between susceptible calves and shedding animals may be more effective than either alone in eliminating endemic MAP infection. We also discussed the effects of other factors such as herd size, heifer replacement, and adult cow infection on the probability of fadeout.     

Ecology and Transmission of Listeria monocytogenes Infecting Ruminants and in the Farm Environment

A case-control study involving 24 case farms with at least one recent case of listeriosis and 28 matched control farms with no listeriosis cases was conducted to probe the transmission and ecology of Listeria monocytogenes on farms. A total of 528 fecal, 516 feed, and 1,012 environmental soil and water samples were cultured for L. monocytogenes. While the overall prevalence of L. monocytogenes in cattle case farms (24.4%) was similar to that in control farms (20.2%), small-ruminant (goat and sheep) farms showed a significantly (P < 0.0001) higher prevalence in case farms (32.9%) than in control farms (5.9%). EcoRI ribotyping of clinical (n = 17) and farm (n = 414) isolates differentiated 51 ribotypes. L. monocytogenes ribotypes isolated from clinical cases and fecal samples were more frequent in environmental than in feed samples, indicating that infected animals may contribute to L. monocytogenes dispersal into the farm environment. Ribotype DUP-1038B was significantly (P < 0.05) associated with fecal samples compared with farm environment and animal feedstuff samples. Ribotype DUP-1045A was significantly (P < 0.05) associated with soil compared to feces and with control farms compared to case farms. Our data indicate that (i) the epidemiology and transmission of L. monocytogenes differ between small-ruminant and cattle farms; (ii) cattle contribute to amplification and dispersal of L. monocytogenes into the farm environment, (iii) the bovine farm ecosystem maintains a high prevalence of L. monocytogenes, including subtypes linked to human listeriosis cases and outbreaks, and (iv) L. monocytogenes subtypes may differ in their abilities to infect animals and to survive in farm environments.     

An association between prediction errors and risk-seeking: Theory and behavioral evidence

Reward prediction errors (RPEs) and risk preferences have two things in common: both can shape decision making behavior, and both are commonly associated with dopamine. RPEs drive value learning and are thought to be represented in the phasic release of striatal dopamine. Risk preferences bias choices towards or away from uncertainty; they can be manipulated with drugs that target the dopaminergic system. Based on the common neural substrate, we hypothesize that RPEs and risk preferences are linked on the level of behavior as well. Here, we develop this hypothesis theoretically and test it empirically. First, we apply a recent theory of learning in the basal ganglia to predict how RPEs influence risk preferences. We find that positive RPEs should cause increased risk-seeking, while negative RPEs should cause risk-aversion. We then test our behavioral predictions using a novel bandit task in which value and risk vary independently across options. Critically, conditions are included where options vary in risk but are matched for value. We find that our prediction was correct: participants become more risk-seeking if choices are preceded by positive RPEs, and more risk-averse if choices are preceded by negative RPEs. These findings cannot be explained by other known effects, such as nonlinear utility curves or dynamic learning rates.     

Decreased Resting Functional Connectivity after Traumatic Brain Injury in the Rat

Traumatic brain injury (TBI) contributes to about 10% of acquired epilepsy. Even though the mechanisms of post-traumatic epileptogenesis are poorly known, a disruption of neuronal networks predisposing to altered neuronal synchrony remains a viable candidate mechanism. We tested a hypothesis that resting state BOLD-fMRI functional connectivity can reveal network abnormalities in brain regions that are connected to the lesioned cortex, and that these changes associate with functional impairment, particularly epileptogenesis. TBI was induced using lateral fluid-percussion injury in seven adult male Sprague-Dawley rats followed by functional imaging at 9.4T 4 months later. As controls we used six sham-operated animals that underwent all surgical operations but were not injured. Electroencephalogram (EEG)-functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) was performed to measure resting functional connectivity. A week after functional imaging, rats were implanted with bipolar skull electrodes. After recovery, rats underwent pentyleneterazol (PTZ) seizure-susceptibility test under EEG. For image analysis, four pairs of regions of interests were analyzed in each hemisphere: ipsilateral and contralateral frontal and parietal cortex, hippocampus, and thalamus. High-pass and low-pass filters were applied to functional imaging data. Group statistics comparing injured and sham-operated rats and correlations over time between each region were calculated. In the end, rats were perfused for histology. None of the rats had epileptiform discharges during functional imaging. PTZ-test, however revealed increased seizure susceptibility in injured rats as compared to controls. Group statistics revealed decreased connectivity between the ipsilateral and contralateral parietal cortex and between the parietal cortex and hippocampus on the side of injury as compared to sham-operated animals. Injured animals also had abnormal negative connectivity between the ipsilateral and contralateral parietal cortex and other regions. Our data provide the first evidence on abnormal functional connectivity after experimental TBI assessed with resting state BOLD-fMRI.     

Ecology and transmission of Listeria monocytogenes infecting ruminants and in the farm environment

A case-control study involving 24 case farms with at least one recent case of listeriosis and 28 matched control farms with no listeriosis cases was conducted to probe the transmission and ecology of Listeria monocytogenes on farms. A total of 528 fecal, 516 feed, and 1,012 environmental soil and water samples were cultured for L. monocytogenes. While the overall prevalence of L. monocytogenes in cattle case farms (24.4%) was similar to that in control farms (20.2%), small-ruminant (goat and sheep) farms showed a significantly (P < 0.0001) higher prevalence in case farms (32.9%) than in control farms (5.9%). EcoRI ribotyping of clinical (n = 17) and farm (n = 414) isolates differentiated 51 ribotypes. L. monocytogenes ribotypes isolated from clinical cases and fecal samples were more frequent in environmental than in feed samples, indicating that infected animals may contribute to L. monocytogenes dispersal into the farm environment. Ribotype DUP-1038B was significantly (P < 0.05) associated with fecal samples compared with farm environment and animal feedstuff samples. Ribotype DUP-1045A was significantly (P < 0.05) associated with soil compared to feces and with control farms compared to case farms. Our data indicate that (i) the epidemiology and transmission of L. monocytogenes differ between small-ruminant and cattle farms; (ii) cattle contribute to amplification and dispersal of L. monocytogenes into the farm environment, (iii) the bovine farm ecosystem maintains a high prevalence of L. monocytogenes, including subtypes linked to human listeriosis cases and outbreaks, and (iv) L. monocytogenes subtypes may differ in their abilities to infect animals and to survive in farm environments.     

The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

Background

Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined.

Methods

A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009.

Results

Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks.

Conclusions

Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially.     

Effects of grazing on plant species diversity and carbon partitioning in semiarid rangelands of northeastern China

Grasslands are one of the most widespread landscapes worldwide, covering approximately one-fifth of the world’s land surface, where grazing is a common practice. How carbon storage responds to grazing in steppes remains poorly understood. We quantified the effects of grazing on community composition and species diversity, and carbon storage in two typical grasslands of northeastern China, one in Horqin and the other one in Hulunbeier. In both grasslands, grazing did not influence plant species diversity. However, it substantially decreased aboveground carbon by 31% and 54% in Horqin and Hulunbeier, respectively. Fenced and grazing treatments showed a similar belowground carbon at both locations. The predominant carbon pool in the study grassland ecosystem was found in the upper 100 cm soil depth, from 98.2 to 99.1% of the total carbon storage. There were no significant effects of grazing on soil carbon neither in the whole profile nor in the uppermost 20 cm soil depth in the two study grasslands. Studies on the effects of varying rangeland management, such as region disparity and grazing systems, may have important consequences on species diversity and carbon partitioning, and thus on rangeland stability and ecosystem functioning.     

Hes1 Increases the Invasion Ability of Colorectal Cancer Cells via the STAT3-MMP14 Pathway

The Notch pathway contributes to self-renewal of tumor-initiating cell and inhibition of normal colonic epithelial cell differentiation. Deregulated expression of Notch1 and Jagged1 is observed in colorectal cancer. Hairy/enhancer of split (HES) family, the most characterized targets of Notch, involved in the development of many cancers. In this study, we explored the role of Hes1 in the tumorigenesis of colorectal cancer. Knocking down Hes1 induced CRC cell senescence and decreased the invasion ability, whereas over-expression of Hes1 increased STAT3 phosphorylation activity and up-regulated MMP14 protein level. We further explored the expression of Hes1 in human colorectal cancer and found high Hes1 mRNA expression is associated with poor prognosis in CRC patients. These findings suggest that Hes1 regulates the invasion ability through the STAT3-MMP14 pathway in CRC cells and high Hes1 expression is a predictor of poor prognosis of CRC.     

Assessing the potential impact of Salmonella vaccines in an endemically infected dairy herd

Salmonella spp. in cattle contribute to bacterial foodborne disease for humans. Reduction of Salmonella prevalence in herds is important to prevent human Salmonella infections. Typical control measures are culling of infectious animals, vaccination, and improved hygiene management. Vaccines have been developed for controlling Salmonella transmission in dairy herds; however, these vaccines are imperfect and a variety of vaccine effects on susceptibility, infectiousness, Salmonella shedding level, and duration of infectious period were reported. To assess the potential impact of imperfect Salmonella vaccines on prevalence over time and the eradication criterion, we developed a deterministic compartmental model with both replacement (cohort) and lifetime (continuous) vaccination strategies, and applied it to a Salmonella Cerro infection in a dairy farm. To understand the uncertainty of prevalence and identify key model parameters, global parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analyses were performed. The results show that imperfect Salmonella vaccines reduce the prevalence of Salmonella Cerro. Among three vaccine effects that were being considered, decreasing the length of the infectious period is most effective in reducing the endemic prevalence. Analyses of contour lines of prevalence or the critical reproduction ratio illustrate that, reducing prevalence to a certain level or zero can be achieved by choosing vaccines that have either a single vaccine effect at relatively high effectiveness, or two or more vaccine effects at relatively low effectiveness. Parameter sensitivity analysis suggests that effective control measures through applying Salmonella vaccines should be adjusted at different stages of infection. In addition, lifetime (continuous) vaccination is more effective than replacement (cohort) vaccination. The potential application of the developed vaccination model to other Salmonella serotypes related to foodborne diseases was also discussed. The presented study may be used as a tool for guiding the development of Salmonella vaccines.     

The importance of culling in Johne's disease control

Johne's disease is caused by Mycobacterium avium subsp. paratuberculosis (MAP) infection and results in economic losses in the dairy industry. To control MAP transmission in herds, test-based culling has been recommended and immediate culling of high shedding animals is typically implemented. In this study, we quantified the effects of MAP control in US dairy herds, using the basic reproduction ratio R₀. The effectiveness of culling strategies was evaluated for good and poor herd management (low- and high-transmission rates, respectively) by a phase diagram approach. To establish a quantitative relationship between culling rates and test properties, we defined the average detection times for low and high shedding animals. The effects of various culling strategies and test characteristics, such as test sensitivity, test turnaround time, and testing interval, were analyzed. To understand the overall effect of model parameters on R₀, we performed global uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. We also evaluated the effectiveness of culling only high shedding animals by comparing three test methods (fecal culture, fecal polymerase chain reaction, PCR, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay, ELISA). Our study shows that, in the case of good herd management, culling of only high shedding animals may be effective in controlling MAP transmission. However, in the case of poor management, in addition to immediate culling of high shedding animals, culling of low shedding animals (based on the fecal culture test) will be necessary. Culling of low shedding animals may be delayed 6-12 months, however, if a shorter testing interval is applied. This study suggests that if farmers prefer culling only high shedding animals, faster MAP detection tests (such as the fecal PCR and ELISA) of higher sensitivity should be applied with high testing frequency, particularly on farms with poor management. Culling of infectious animals with a longer testing interval is generally not effective to control MAP.