Nonparametric correction for covariate measurement error in a stratified Cox model

Stratified Cox regression models with large number of strata and small stratum size are useful in many settings, including matched case-control family studies. In the presence of measurement error in covariates and a large number of strata, we show that extensions of existing methods fail either to reduce the bias or to correct the bias under nonsymmetric distributions of the true covariate or the error term. We propose a nonparametric correction method for the estimation of regression coefficients, and show that the estimators are asymptotically consistent for the true parameters. Small sample properties are evaluated in a simulation study. The method is illustrated with an analysis of Framingham data.     

Bias correction in the hierarchical likelihood approach to the analysis of multivariate survival data

Frailty models are useful for measuring unobserved heterogeneity in risk of failures across clusters, providing cluster-specific risk prediction. In a frailty model, the latent frailties shared by members within a cluster are assumed to act multiplicatively on the hazard function. In order to obtain parameter and frailty variate estimates, we consider the hierarchical likelihood (H-likelihood) approach (Ha, Lee and Song, 2001. Hierarchical-likelihood approach for frailty models. Biometrika 88, 233-243) in which the latent frailties are treated as "parameters" and estimated jointly with other parameters of interest. We find that the H-likelihood estimators perform well when the censoring rate is low, however, they are substantially biased when the censoring rate is moderate to high. In this paper, we propose a simple and easy-to-implement bias correction method for the H-likelihood estimators under a shared frailty model. We also extend the method to a multivariate frailty model, which incorporates complex dependence structure within clusters. We conduct an extensive simulation study and show that the proposed approach performs very well for censoring rates as high as 80%. We also illustrate the method with a breast cancer data set. Since the H-likelihood is the same as the penalized likelihood function, the proposed bias correction method is also applicable to the penalized likelihood estimators.     

Antigen-driven selection in germinal centers as reflected by the shape characteristics of immunoglobulin gene lineage trees: a large-scale simulation study

During the immune response, the generation of memory B lymphocytes in germinal centers involves affinity maturation of the cells’ antigen receptors, based on somatic hypermutation of receptor genes and antigen-driven selection of the resulting mutants. Affinity maturation is vital for immune protection, and is the basis of humoral immune learning and memory. Lineage trees of somatically hypermutated immunoglobulin genes often serve to qualitatively illustrate claims concerning the dynamics of affinity maturation in germinal centers. Here, we derive the quantitative relationships between parameters characterizing affinity maturation dynamics (proliferation, differentiation and mutation rates, initial affinity of the Ig to the antigen, and selection thresholds) and the mathematical properties of lineage trees, using a computer simulation which combines mathematical models for all mature B cell populations, stochastic models of hypermutation and selection, lineage tree generation and measurement of graphical tree characteristics. We identified seven key lineage tree properties, and found correlations of these with initial clone affinity and with the selection threshold. These two parameters were found to be the main factors affecting lineage tree shapes in both primary and secondary response trees. The results also confirm that recycling from centrocytes back to centroblasts is highly likely.     

Function of Cancer Associated Genes Revealed by Modern Univariate and Multivariate Association Tests

Copy number variation (CNV) plays a role in pathogenesis of many human diseases, especially cancer. Several whole genome CNV association studies have been performed for the purpose of identifying cancer associated CNVs. Here we undertook a novel approach to whole genome CNV analysis, with the goal being identification of associations between CNV of different genes (CNV-CNV) across 60 human cancer cell lines. We hypothesize that these associations point to the roles of the associated genes in cancer, and can be indicators of their position in gene networks of cancer-driving processes. Recent studies show that gene associations are often non-linear and non-monotone. In order to obtain a more complete picture of all CNV associations, we performed omnibus univariate analysis by utilizing dCov, MIC, and HHG association tests, which are capable of detecting any type of association, including non-monotone relationships. For comparison we used Spearman and Pearson association tests, which detect only linear or monotone relationships. Application of dCov, MIC and HHG tests resulted in identification of twice as many associations compared to those found by Spearman and Pearson alone. Interestingly, most of the new associations were detected by the HHG test. Next, we utilized dCov''s and HHG''s ability to perform multivariate analysis. We tested for association between genes of unknown function and known cancer-related pathways. Our results indicate that multivariate analysis is much more effective than univariate analysis for the purpose of ascribing biological roles to genes of unknown function. We conclude that a combination of multivariate and univariate omnibus association tests can reveal significant information about gene networks of disease-driving processes. These methods can be applied to any large gene or pathway dataset, allowing more comprehensive analysis of biological processes.     

Linear measurement error models with restricted sampling

The relationship between nutrient consumption and chronic disease risk is the focus of a large number of epidemiological studies where food frequency questionnaires (FFQ) and food records are commonly used to assess dietary intake. However, these self-assessment tools are known to involve substantial random error for most nutrients, and probably important systematic error as well. Study subject selection in dietary intervention studies is sometimes conducted in two stages. At the first stage, FFQ-measured dietary intakes are observed and at the second stage another instrument, such as a 4-day food record, is administered only to participants who have fulfilled a prespecified criterion that is based on the baseline FFQ-measured dietary intake (e.g., only those reporting percent energy intake from fat above a prespecified quantity). Performing analysis without adjusting for this truncated sample design and for the measurement error in the nutrient consumption assessments will usually provide biased estimates for the population parameters. In this work we provide a general statistical analysis technique for such data with the classical additive measurement error that corrects for the two sources of bias. The proposed technique is based on multiple imputation for longitudinal data. Results of a simulation study along with a sensitivity analysis are presented, showing the performance of the proposed method under a simple linear regression model.     

Are Lithuanian eels fat enough to reach the spawning grounds?

Stocks of the European eel Anguilla anguilla have been in a steep decline since the 1980s. Stocking of water bodies with juvenile eels captured in the wild to establish or enhance local populations has been a common practise in Europe for many decades. However, the degree of contribution by stocked eels to natural spawning capacity is poorly known and extensively debated. There have been suggestions that eels derived from stocking are less likely to contribute to the spawning stock due to a lack of navigational capability and lower fitness related to insufficiency of energetic resources. Results of the current study indicated that eels translocated long distances from the point of capture and released into inland waters in Lithuania are successfully undergoing the silvering process. A proportion of 23.7% (N = 27) among all migrating eels were described to be at the yellow (SI, SFII or SFIII) eel stage and downstream movements of these eels should be attributed to local movements, rather than spawning migration; 76.3% were assigned to the silver eel stage. This study suggests that 36.8% (N = 32) of downstream migrating silver eels of stocked origin had accumulated sufficient energetic resources for spawning migration and gonadal development and should be able to traverse the 7900-km distance to the presumptive spawning grounds in the Sargasso Sea. The rest of migrating silver eels (63.2%, N = 55) had insufficient energetic resources; the average potential swimming range of these eels was estimated to be 6135 ± 683 km.     

Maximum likelihood estimator and likelihood ratio test in complex models: An application to B lymphocyte development

In this paper we introduce a simple framework which provides a basis for estimating parameters and testing statistical hypotheses in complex models. The only assumption that is made in the model describing the process under study, is that the deviations of the observations from the model have a multivariate normal distribution. The application of the statistical techniques presented in this paper may have considerable utility in the analysis of a wide variety of complex biological and epidemiological models. To our knowledge, the model and methods described here have not previously been published in the area of theoretical immunology.     

Exploring Spatiotemporal Trends in Commercial Fishing Effort of an Abalone Fishing Zone: A GIS-Based Hotspot Model

Assessing patterns of fisheries activity at a scale related to resource exploitation has received particular attention in recent times. However, acquiring data about the distribution and spatiotemporal allocation of catch and fishing effort in small scale benthic fisheries remains challenging. Here, we used GIS-based spatio-statistical models to investigate the footprint of commercial diving events on blacklip abalone (Haliotis rubra) stocks along the south-west coast of Victoria, Australia from 2008 to 2011. Using abalone catch data matched with GPS location we found catch per unit of fishing effort (CPUE) was not uniformly spatially and temporally distributed across the study area. Spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis revealed significant spatiotemporal clusters of CPUE (with distance thresholds of 100’s of meters) among years, indicating the presence of CPUE hotspots focused on specific reefs. Cumulative hotspot maps indicated that certain reef complexes were consistently targeted across years but with varying intensity, however often a relatively small proportion of the full reef extent was targeted. Integrating CPUE with remotely-sensed light detection and ranging (LiDAR) derived bathymetry data using generalized additive mixed model corroborated that fishing pressure primarily coincided with shallow, rugose and complex components of reef structures. This study demonstrates that a geospatial approach is efficient in detecting patterns and trends in commercial fishing effort and its association with seafloor characteristics.     

Cormorant Catch Concerns for Fishers: Estimating the Size-Selectivity of a Piscivorous Bird

Conflict arises in fisheries worldwide when piscivorous birds target fish species of commercial value. This paper presents a method for estimating size selectivity functions for piscivores and uses it to compare predation selectivities of Great Cormorants (Phalacrocorax carbo sinensis L. 1758) with that of gill-net fishing on a European perch (Perca fluviatilis L. 1758) population in the Curonian Lagoon, Lithuania. Fishers often regard cormorants as an unwanted “satellite species”, but the degree of direct competition and overlap in size-specific selectivity between fishers and cormorants is unknown. This study showed negligible overlap in selectivity between Great Cormorants and legal-sized commercial nets. The selectivity estimation method has general application potential for use in conjunction with population dynamics models to assess fish population responses to size-selective fishing from a wide range of piscivorous predators.