Robust inference for event probabilities with non-Markov event data

Multistate event data, in which a single subject is at risk for multiple events, is common in biomedical applications. This article considers nonparametric estimation of the vector of probabilities of state membership at time t. Estimators, derived under the Markov assumption, have been shown (Datta and Satten, 2001, Statistics and Probability Letters 55, 403-411) to be consistent for data that is non-Markov. Inference, however, must take into account possibly non-Markov transitions when constructing confidence bands for event curves. We develop robust confidence bands for these curves, evaluate them via simulation, and illustrate the method on two datasets.     

Floristic variation and willow carr development within a southwest England wetland

Abstract. Woodland colonization on wetlands is considered to have a detrimental effect on their ecological value, even though detailed analysis of this process is lacking. This paper provides an evaluation of the ecological changes resulting from succession of poor fen (base‐poor mire) to willow wet woodland on Goss Moor NNR in Cornwall, UK. Different ages of willow carr were associated with eight understorey communities. During willow colonization, in the ground flora, there was a progressive decrease in poor fen species and an associated increase in woodland species, which appeared to be related to an increase in canopy cover and therefore shade. The most diverse community was found to be the most recent willow and was dominated by poor fen species. The oldest willow was the second most diverse and was associated with a reduction in poor fen species and an increase in woodland species. Architectural features were used successfully to assess the general condition and structure of willow. Tree height and DBH were identified as useful parameters to accurately assess willow age in the field. The implications of active intervention to remove willow in order to conserve the full range of communities within the hydrosere are discussed.     

Protocol of a prospective study on the diagnostic value of transcranial duplex scanning of the substantia nigra in patients with parkinsonian symptoms

Background  

Parkinson's disease (PD) is the second most common neurodegenerative disorder. As there is no definitive diagnostic test, its diagnosis is based on clinical criteria. Recently transcranial duplex scanning (TCD) of the substantia nigra in the brainstem has been proposed as an instrument to diagnose PD. We and others have found that TCD scanning of substantia nigra duplex is a relatively accurate diagnostic instrument in patients with parkinsonian symptoms. However, all studies on TCD so far have involved well-defined, later-stage PD patients, which will obviously lead to an overestimate of the diagnostic accuracy of TCD.     

Identification of I137M and other mutations that modulate incubation periods for two human prion strains

We report here the transmission of human prions to 18 new transgenic (Tg) mouse lines expressing 8 unique chimeric human/mouse prion proteins (PrP). Extracts from brains of two patients, who died of sporadic Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (sCJD), contained either sCJD(MM1) or sCJD(VV2) prion strains and were used for inocula. Mice expressing chimeric PrP showed a direct correlation between expression level and incubation period for sCJD(MM1) prions irrespective of whether the transgene encoded methionine (M) or valine (V) at polymorphic residue 129. Tg mice expressing chimeric transgenes encoding V129 were unexpectedly resistant to infection with sCJD(VV2) prions, and when transmission did occur, it was accompanied by a change in strain type. The transmission of sCJD(MM1) prions was modulated by single amino acid reversions of each human PrP residue in the chimeric sequence. Reverting human residue 137 in the chimeric transgene from I to M prolonged the incubation time for sCJD(MM1) prions by more than 100 days; structural analyses suggest a profound change in the orientation of amino acid side chains with the I→M mutation. These findings argue that changing the surface charge in this region of PrP greatly altered the interaction between PrP isoforms during prion replication. Our studies contend that strain-specified replication of prions is modulated by PrP sequence-specific interactions between the prion precursor PrP(C) and the infectious product PrP(Sc).     

Healthcare Utilization and Clinical Outcomes after Catheter Ablation of Atrial Flutter

Atrial flutter ablation is associated with a high rate of acute procedural success and symptom improvement. The relationship between ablation and other clinical outcomes has been limited to small studies primarily conducted at academic centers. We sought to determine if catheter ablation of atrial flutter is associated with reductions in healthcare utilization, atrial fibrillation, or stroke in a large, real world population. California Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project databases were used to identify patients undergoing atrial flutter ablation between 2005 and 2009. The adjusted association between atrial flutter ablation and healthcare utilization, atrial fibrillation, or stroke was investigated using Cox proportional hazards models. Among 33,004 patients with a diagnosis of atrial flutter observed for a median of 2.1 years, 2,733 (8.2%) underwent catheter ablation. Atrial flutter ablation significantly lowered the adjusted risk of inpatient hospitalization (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84–0.92, p<0.001), emergency department visits (HR 0.60, 95% CI 0.54–0.65, p<0.001), and overall hospital-based healthcare utilization (HR 0.94, 95% CI 0.90–0.98, p = 0.001). Atrial flutter ablation was also associated with a statistically significant 11% reduction in the adjusted hazard of atrial fibrillation (HR 0.89, 95% CI 0.81–0.97, p = 0.01). Risk of acute stroke was not significantly reduced after ablation (HR 1.09, 95% CI 0.81–1.45, p = 0.57). In a large, real world population, atrial flutter ablation was associated with significant reductions in hospital-based healthcare utilization and a reduced risk of atrial fibrillation. These findings support the early use of catheter ablation for the treatment of atrial flutter.     

Reproductive Intentions and Outcomes among Women on Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence the biological, social and behavioral determinants of pregnancy in HIV-infected women. However, there are limited longitudinal data on the reproductive intentions and outcomes among women on ART in Africa.

Methodology /Principal Findings

Using a prospective cohort design, we analyzed trends in desire for children and predictors of pregnancy among a cohort of 733 HIV-infected women in rural Uganda who initiated ART between May 2003 and May 2004 and were followed up in their homes until June 2006. Women answered in-depth social and behavioral questionnaires administered every quarter in year 1 after initiating ART, and every 6 to 12 months thereafter. Use of family planning methods was assessed at 18 and 24 months after starting ART. We tested for non-constant pregnancy incidence by using a shape parameter test from the Weibull distribution. We modeled repeated measurements of all variables related to the women''s desire for children over time using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) extension to the logistic regression model. Risk factors for pregnancy were examined using Cox proportional hazards model. 711 women eligible for the study were followed-up for a median time of 2.4 years after starting ART. During this time, less than 7% of women reported wanting more children at any time point yet 120 (16.9%) women experienced 140 pregnancies and pregnancy incidence increased from 3.46 per 100 women-years (WY) in the first quarter to 9.5 per 100 WY at 24 months (p<0.0001). This was paralleled by an increase in the proportion of women reporting sexual activity in the past 3 months, from 24.4% at baseline to 32.5% over 24 months of follow-up (p = 0.001). Only 14% of women used permanent or semi-permanent family planning methods by their second year on ART. In the multivariate model, younger age (HR = 2.71 per 10-year decrease, 95% CI: 2.95–3.78), having a BMI>18.5 (HR = 1.09, CI: 1.01–1.18) and not having used condoms consistently in the last 3 months (HR = 1.79, CI: 1.02–3.13) were independently associated with pregnancy.

Conclusion/Significance

Women on ART and their partners should be consistently counseled on the effects of ART in restoring fertility, and offered regularly free and comprehensive family planning services as part of their standard package of care.     

The role of MHC class I allele Mamu-A*07 during SIVmac239 infection

Virus-specific CD8(+) T cells play an important role in controlling HIV/SIV replication. These T cells recognize intracellular pathogen-derived peptides displayed on the cell surface by individual MHC class I molecules. In the SIV-infected rhesus macaque model, five Mamu class I alleles have been thoroughly characterized with regard to peptide binding, and a sixth was shown to be uninvolved. In this study, we describe the peptide binding of Mamu-A1*007:01 (formerly Mamu-A*07), an allele present in roughly 5.08% of Indian-origin rhesus macaques (n?=?63 of 1,240). We determined a preliminary binding motif by eluting and sequencing endogenously bound ligands. Subsequently, we used a positional scanning combinatorial library and panels of single amino acid substitution analogs to further characterize peptide binding of this allele and derive a quantitative motif. Using this motif, we selected and tested 200 peptides derived from SIV(mac)239 for their capacity to bind Mamu-A1*007:01; 33 were found to bind with an affinity of 500?nM or better. We then used PBMC from SIV-infected or vaccinated but uninfected, A1*007:01-positive rhesus macaques in IFN-γ Elispot assays to screen the peptides for T-cell reactivity. In all, 11 of the peptides elicited IFN-γ(+) T-cell responses. Six represent novel A1*007:01-restricted epitopes. Furthermore, both Sanger and ultradeep pyrosequencing demonstrated the accumulation of amino acid substitutions within four of these six regions, suggestive of selective pressure on the virus by antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells. Thus, it appears that Mamu-A1*007:01 presents SIV-derived peptides to antigen-specific CD8(+) T cells and is part of the immune response to SIV(mac)239.