Balancing Detection and Eradication for Control of Epidemics: Sudden Oak Death in Mixed-Species Stands

Culling of infected individuals is a widely used measure for the control of several plant and animal pathogens but culling first requires detection of often cryptically-infected hosts. In this paper, we address the problem of how to allocate resources between detection and culling when the budget for disease management is limited. The results are generic but we motivate the problem for the control of a botanical epidemic in a natural ecosystem: sudden oak death in mixed evergreen forests in coastal California, in which species composition is generally dominated by a spreader species (bay laurel) and a second host species (coast live oak) that is an epidemiological dead-end in that it does not transmit infection but which is frequently a target for preservation. Using a combination of an epidemiological model for two host species with a common pathogen together with optimal control theory we address the problem of how to balance the allocation of resources for detection and epidemic control in order to preserve both host species in the ecosystem. Contrary to simple expectations our results show that an intermediate level of detection is optimal. Low levels of detection, characteristic of low effort expended on searching and detection of diseased trees, and high detection levels, exemplified by the deployment of large amounts of resources to identify diseased trees, fail to bring the epidemic under control. Importantly, we show that a slight change in the balance between the resources allocated to detection and those allocated to control may lead to drastic inefficiencies in control strategies. The results hold when quarantine is introduced to reduce the ingress of infected material into the region of interest.     

Durable Resistance to Crop Pathogens: An Epidemiological Framework to Predict Risk under Uncertainty

Increasing the durability of crop resistance to plant pathogens is one of the key goals of virulence management. Despite the recognition of the importance of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of an epidemic, their effects on the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance has not received attention. We formulated a stochastic epidemiological model, based on the Kramer-Moyal expansion of the Master Equation, to investigate how random fluctuations affect the dynamics of an epidemic and how these effects feed through to the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance. We focused on two hypotheses: firstly, a previous deterministic model has suggested that the effect of cropping ratio (the proportion of land area occupied by the resistant crop) on the durability of crop resistance is negligible. Increasing the cropping ratio increases the area of uninfected host, but the resistance is more rapidly broken; these two effects counteract each other. We tested the hypothesis that similar counteracting effects would occur when we take account of demographic stochasticity, but found that the durability does depend on the cropping ratio. Secondly, we tested whether a superimposed external source of stochasticity (for example due to environmental variation or to intermittent fungicide application) interacts with the intrinsic demographic fluctuations and how such interaction affects the durability of resistance. We show that in the pathosystem considered here, in general large stochastic fluctuations in epidemics enhance extinction of the pathogen. This is more likely to occur at large cropping ratios and for particular frequencies of the periodic external perturbation (stochastic resonance). The results suggest possible disease control practises by exploiting the natural sources of stochasticity.     

Daily age determination and growth rates of freshwater fish throughout a regulated lotic system of the Murray‐Darling Basin Australia

To facilitate future research in freshwater fish recruitment response to environmental flow delivery, size‐at‐age and growth models are presented for eight fish species occurring in south‐eastern Australia; three small‐bodied species and the juvenile 0+ age classes of five large‐bodied species. Otolith increments were used to estimate the daily age of golden perch Macquaria ambigua, bony bream Nematalosa erebi, common carp Cyprinus carpio; Murray cod Maccullochella peelii, freshwater eel‐tailed catfish Tandanus tandanus, Australian smelt Retropinna semoni, un‐specked hardyhead Craterocephalus stercusmuscarum fulvus and Murray–Darling rainbowfish Melanotaenia fluviatilis. Linear growth models provided the best fit for length‐at‐age data of juvenile 0+ age large‐bodied species; whereas von Bertalanffy growth functions provided the best fit to length‐at‐age data of small‐bodied species. The results provide novel baseline data for future research in this area.     

Fugu and human sequence comparison identifies novel human genes and conserved non-coding sequences

The compact genome of the pufferfish, Fugu rubripes, has been proposed as a 'reference' genome to aid in annotating and analysing the human genome. We have annotated and compared 85 kb of Fugu sequence containing 17 genes with its homologous loci in the human draft genome and identified three 'novel' human genes that were missed or incompletely predicted by the previous gene prediction methods. Two of the novel genes contain zinc finger domains and are designated ZNF366 and ZNF367. They map to human chromosomes 5q13.2 and 9q22.32, respectively. The third novel gene, designated C9orf21, maps to chromosome 9q22.32. This gene is unique to vertebrates, and the protein encoded by it does not contain any known domains. We could not find human homologs for two Fugu genes, a novel chemokine gene and a kinase gene. These genes are either specific to teleosts or lost in the human lineage. The Fugu-human comparison identified several conserved non-coding sequences in the promoter and intronic regions. These sequences, conserved during 450 million years of vertebrate evolution, are likely to be involved in gene regulation. The 85 kb Fugu locus is dispersed over four human loci, occupying about 1.5 Mb. Contiguity is conserved in the human genome between six out of 16 Fugu gene pairs. These contiguous chromosomal segments should share a common evolutionary history dating back to the common ancestor of mammals and teleosts. We propose contiguity as strong evidence to identify orthologous genes in distant organisms. This study confirms the utility of the Fugu as a supplementary tool to uncover and confirm novel genes and putative gene regulatory regions in the human genome.     

Quantitative analysis and model simplification of an epidemic model with primary and secondary infection

Models of particular epidemiological systems can rapidly become complicated by biological detail which can obscure their essential features and behaviour. In general, we wish to retain only those components and processes that contribute to the dynamics of the system. In this paper, we apply asymptotic techniques to an SEI-type model with primary and secondary infection in order to reduce it to a much simpler form. This allows the identification of parameter groupings discriminating between regions of contrasting dynamics and leads to simple approximations for the model’s transient behaviour. These can be used to follow the evolution of the developing infection process. The techniques examined in this paper will be applicable to a large number of similar models.     

Sustained phosphorylation of tyrosine hydroxylase at serine 40: a novel mechanism for maintenance of catecholamine synthesis

Tyrosine hydroxylase (TH) is the rate-limiting enzyme in catecholamine synthesis. Its activity is known to be controlled acutely (minutes) by phosphorylation and chronically (days) by protein synthesis. Using bovine adrenal chromaffin cells we found that nicotine, acting via nicotinic receptors, sustained the phosphorylation of TH at Ser40 for up to 48 h. Nicotine also induced sustained activation of TH, which for the first 24 h was completely independent of TH protein synthesis, and the phosphorylation of TH at Ser31. Imipramine did not inhibit the acute phosphorylation of TH at Ser40 or TH activation induced by nicotine, but did inhibit the sustained responses to nicotine seen at 24 h. The protein kinase(s) responsible for TH phosphorylation at Ser40 switched from being protein kinase C (PKC) independent in the acute phase to PKC dependent in the sustained phase. Sustained phosphorylation and activation of TH were also observed with histamine and angiotensin II. Sustained phosphorylation of TH at Ser40 provides a novel mechanism for increasing TH activity and this leads to increased catecholamine synthesis. Sustained phosphorylation of TH may be a selective target for drugs or pathology in neurons that contain TH and synthesize dopamine, noradrenaline or adrenaline.     

Spangled perch (Leiopotherapon unicolor) in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin: Flood dispersal and short‐term persistence outside its core range

The spangled perch Leiopotherapon unicolor is considered a rare vagrant in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin, Australia, due to its intolerance of the relatively cool water temperatures that prevail during winter months. This study details 1342 records of the species from 68 locations between 2010 and 2014 outside its accepted ‘core adult range’ following widespread flooding during 2010 and 2011. Although records of the species declined over 2013, L. unicolor remained resident in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin as of April 2014. The species persisted in several locations for three consecutive winters with recruitment documented at two sites. This study represents the first identification of the dispersal of large numbers of L. unicolor into the southern Murray‐Darling Basin, persistence beyond a single winter, and recruitment by the species in habitats south of its recognized ‘core adult range’. Targeted research would determine the potential for predicted environmental changes (artificially warmer drainage wetlands, climate change and greater floodplain connectivity) to facilitate longer term persistence and range expansion by the species in the southern Murray‐Darling Basin.     

Culture of one- and two-cell bovine embryos to the blastocyst stage in the ovine oviduct

The ovine oviduct was evaluated as a culture system for early bovine embryos. One- to two-cell embryos were collected from superovulated heifers killed 36 or 48 h after the onset of estrus, embedded in agar cylinders, and transferred to oviducts ligated at the uterotubal junction. After 5 d (6.5 to 7.0 d after donor estrus), embryos were recovered and evaluated for development to the late morula or blastocyst stage. In Experiment 1, 86 embryos were cultured in 10 ewes in which the onset of estrus was synchronized with that of the donors. Fifty-eight embryos (68%) were recovered; of these, 31 (53%) had continued normal development. In Experiment 2, development in ovariectomized versus intact cyclic ewes was compared. Recovery from ovariectomized ewes (26/39, 67%) did not differ from intact cyclic ewes (26/35, 74%) and the proportion developing normally also did not differ (ovariectomized: 7/26, 27%; intact cyclic: 11/26, 42%). In Experiment 3, embryo development was compared in anestrous versus ovariectomized ewes. Recovery rate (anestrous: 22/43, 51%; ovariectomized: 20/51, 39%) and the proportion developing normally (anestrous: 8/22, 37%; ovariectomized: 9/20, 45%) did not differ between treatments. Developmental competence of oviduct-cultured embryos was tested by transfer to 16 synchronous heifers, of which eight (50%) became pregnant; five delivered calves. Results indicate that the ovine oviduct provides an adequate site for the culture of early bovine embryos.     

Purification of and production of an antibody against a 63,000 Mr stimulus-sensitive phosphoprotein in Paramecium

In vivo labeling of Paramecium cells with 32Pi most heavily labels a minor 63-kDa protein that undergoes a rapid, Ca2+-dependent dephosphorylation when the cell is stimulated to release. This stimulus-sensitive phosphoprotein was isolated and purified to apparent homogeneity. A polyclonal affinity purified antibody made against the purified protein recognizes both the phosphorylated and dephosphorylated forms of the protein. The phosphorylated 63-kDa protein is found in the cytosolic fraction; it is slightly acidic with two isoelectric forms at pI 5.8 and 6.2 and probably exists as a monomeric 60-65-kDa polypeptide in the native state. The labeled phosphoamino acid of the protein is phosphoserine. The affinity purified antibody recognizes a third isoelectric form at pI 6.3 that appears unlabeled. The specificity of the antibody was confirmed by showing that it immunoprecipitates the correct protein, i.e. the stimulus-sensitive 63-kDa phosphoprotein. The availability of purified 63-kDa protein as well as an antibody against it will now allow molecular, biochemical, and immunocytochemical studies into the role of this protein in the mechanism of exocytosis.