Some model based considerations on observing generation times for communicable diseases

The generation time of an infectious disease is usually defined as the time from the moment one person becomes infected until that person infects another person. The concept is similar to “generation gap” in demography, with new infections replacing births in a population. Originally applied to diseases such as measles where at least the first generations are clearly discernible, the concept has recently been extended to other diseases, such as influenza, where time order of infections is usually much less apparent.By formulating the relevant statistical questions within a simple yet basic mathematical model for infection spread, it is possible to derive theoretical properties of observations in various situations e.g. in “isolation”, in households, or during large outbreaks. In each case, it is shown that the sampling distribution of observations depends on a number of factors, usually not considered in the literature and that must be taken into account in order to achieve unbiased inference about the generation time distribution. Some implications of these findings for statistical inference methods in epidemic spread models are discussed.     

Multiple mRNAs are generated from the chicken lysozyme gene

We have determined the DNA sequence of a 770 by Pst I fragment containing 450 nucleotides of the 5′ flanking region of the chicken lysozyme gene. S1-nuclease mapping was performed to localize the 5′ end of nuclear RNA containing lysozyme-specific sequences and of the mRNA. We present evidence that the 5′ noncoding region of the chicken lysozyme mRNA is heterogeneous in length. The 5′ termini of the different mRNAs map 29, 31 and 53 nucleotides upstream from their common initiation codon. The 5′ ends of lysozyme-specific nuclear RNAs map at positions similar to that of the mRNA. AT-rich regions and sequences similar to the E. coli RNA polymerase recognition sequence are found around 30 and 70 nucleotides upstream from each of these 5′ termini. The AT-rich regions differ, however, from the canonical Goldberg-Hogness box in that they do not contain the extremely conserved TATA sequence motif. Sequence comparison at the 5′ end of the lysozyme, conalbumin and ovalbumin genes reveals only one region of partial homology, 140 nucleotides upstream from the mRNA start sites.     

The effect of past changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on tree distribution limits

Aim The northern limits of temperate broadleaved species in Fennoscanndia are controlled by their requirements for summer warmth for successful regeneration and growth as well as by the detrimental effects of winter cold on plant tissue. However, occurrences of meteorological conditions with detrimental effects on individual species are rare events rather than a reflection of average conditions. We explore the effect of changes in inter‐annual temperature variability on the abundances of the tree species Tilia cordata, Quercus robur and Ulmus glabra near their distribution limits using a process‐based model of ecosystem dynamics. Location A site in central Sweden and a site in southern Finland were used as examples for the ecotone between boreal and temperate forests in Fennoscandia. The Finnish site was selected because of the availability of varve‐thickness data. Methods The dynamic vegetation model LPJ‐GUESS was run with four scenarios of inter‐annual temperature forcing for the last 10,000 years. In one scenario the variability in the thickness of summer and winter varves from the annually laminated lake in Finland was used as a proxy for past inter‐annual temperature variability. Two scenarios were devised to explore systematically the effect of stepwise changes in the variance and shape parameter of a probability distribution. All variability scenarios were run both with and without the long‐term trend in Holocene temperature change predicted by an atmospheric general circulation model. Results Directional changes in inter‐annual temperature variability have significant effects on simulated tree distribution limits through time. Variations in inter‐annual temperature variability alone are shown to alter vegetation composition by magnitudes similar to the magnitude of changes driven by variation in mean temperatures. Main conclusions The varve data indicate that inter‐annual climate variability has changed in the past. The model results show that past changes in species abundance can be explained by changes in the inter‐annual variability of climate parameters as well as by mean climate. Because inter‐annual climatic variability is predicted to change in the future, this component of climate change should be taken into account both when making projections of future plant distributions and when interpreting vegetation history.     

Novel Binding of the Mitotic Regulator TPX2 (Target Protein for Xenopus Kinesin-like Protein 2) to Importin-��

Several aspects of mitotic spindle assembly are orchestrated by the Ran GTPase through its modulation of the interaction between spindle assembly factors and importin-α. One such factor is TPX2 that promotes microtubule assembly in the vicinity of chromosomes. TPX2 is inhibited when bound to importin-α, which occurs when the latter is bound to importin-β. The importin-α:β interaction is disrupted by the high RanGTP concentration near the chromosomes, releasing TPX2. In more distal regions, where Ran is predominantly GDP-bound, TPX2 remains bound to importin-α and so is inhibited. Here we use a combination of structural and biochemical methods to define the basis for TPX2 binding to importin-α. A 2.2 Å resolution crystal structure shows that the primary nuclear localization signal (²⁸⁴KRKH²⁸⁷) of TPX2, which has been shown to be crucial for inhibition, binds to the minor NLS-binding site on importin-α. This atypical interaction pattern was confirmed using complementary binding studies that employed importin-α variants in which binding to either the major or minor NLS-binding site was impaired, together with competition assays using the SV40 monopartite NLS that binds primarily to the major site. The different way in which TPX2 binds to importin-α could account for much of the selectivity necessary during mitosis because this would reduce the competition for binding to importin-α from other NLS-containing proteins.     

The use of modelling and simulation approach in reconstructing past landscapes from fossil pollen data: a review and results from the POLLANDCAL network

Information on past land cover in terms of absolute areas of different landscape units (forest, open land, pasture land, cultivated land, etc.) at local to regional scales is needed to test hypotheses and answer questions related to climate change (e.g. feedbacks effects of land-cover change), archaeological research, and nature conservancy (e.g. management strategy). The palaeoecological technique best suited to achieve quantitative reconstruction of past vegetation is pollen analysis. A simulation approach developed by Sugita (the computer model POLLSCAPE) which uses models based on the theory of pollen analysis is presented together with examples of application. POLLSCAPE has been adopted as the central tool for POLLANDCAL (POLlen/LANdscape CALibration), an international research network focusing on this topic. The theory behind models of the pollen–vegetation relationship and POLLSCAPE is reviewed. The two model outputs which receive greatest attention in this paper are the relevant source area of pollen (RSAP) and pollen loading in mires and lakes. Six examples of application of POLLSCAPE are presented, each of which explores a possible use of the POLLANDCAL tools and a means of validating or evaluating the models with empirical data. The landscape and vegetation factors influencing the size of the RSAP, the importance of pollen productivity estimates (PPEs) for the model outputs, the detection of small and rare patches of plant taxa in pollen records, and quantitative reconstructions of past vegetation and landscapes are discussed on the basis of these examples. The simulation approach is seen to be useful both for exploring different vegetation/landscape scenarios and for refuting hypotheses.     

Incidence of symptoms and AIDS in 146 Swedish haemophiliacs and blood transfusion recipients infected with human immunodeficiency virus.

The times from infection with the human immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) to the onset of the first clinical symptom and the development of AIDS were studied prospectively in 98 haemophiliacs and 48 blood transfusion recipients infected with the virus. Patients were followed up for a median of 61 months after infection, the dates of infection being either known exactly or estimated from the interval between the last negative and first positive HIV antibody test result. The rate of progression to AIDS was significantly higher for the transfusion recipients than for the haemophiliacs. The difference in time to the occurrence of the first clinical symptom was less pronounced between the two groups, though pointing in the same direction. The results suggest that on average roughly half of all patients positive for HIV will develop some clinical sign or symptom within five to six years after infection.     

Postnatal development of hepatic uricase and peroxisomes in baby pigs

1. The activity of uricase, the densities of peroxisomes and cores in liver samples of baby pigs up to 4 weeks of age were investigated. 2. From 1 to 4 weeks of age, uricase activity as well as counts of cores and peroxisomes increased 5.5-, 3.3- and 2-fold. 3. Uricase activity and counts of cores and peroxisomes were correlated (P less than 0.001) with age in linear relationships. 4. Calculated for time of birth uricase activity was very low and ratio of cores to peroxisomes was 1:7. 5. From 0 to 28 days of age the calculated increases of uricase activity and counts of cores and peroxisomes were 178-, 10- and 3-fold.