Mitigation measures for pandemic influenza in Italy: an individual based model considering different scenarios

Background

Individual-based models can provide the most reliable estimates of the spread of infectious diseases. In the present study, we evaluated the diffusion of pandemic influenza in Italy and the impact of various control measures, coupling a global SEIR model for importation of cases with an individual based model (IBM) describing the Italian epidemic.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We co-located the Italian population (57 million inhabitants) to households, schools and workplaces and we assigned travel destinations to match the 2001 census data. We considered different R₀ values (1.4; 1.7; 2), evaluating the impact of control measures (vaccination, antiviral prophylaxis -AVP-, international air travel restrictions and increased social distancing). The administration of two vaccine doses was considered, assuming that first dose would be administered 1-6 months after the first world case, and different values for vaccine effectiveness (VE). With no interventions, importation would occur 37–77 days after the first world case. Air travel restrictions would delay the importation of the pandemic by 7–37 days. With an R₀ of 1.4 or 1.7, the use of combined measures would reduce clinical attack rates (AR) from 21–31% to 0.3–4%. Assuming an R₀ of 2, the AR would decrease from 38% to 8%, yet only if vaccination were started within 2 months of the first world case, in combination with a 90% reduction in international air traffic, closure of schools/workplaces for 4 weeks and AVP of household and school/work close contacts of clinical cases. Varying VE would not substantially affect the results.

Conclusions

This IBM, which is based on country-specific demographic data, could be suitable for the real-time evaluation of measures to be undertaken in the event of the emergence of a new pandemic influenza virus. All preventive measures considered should be implemented to mitigate the pandemic.     

Human dental pulp stem cells hook into biocoral scaffold forming an engineered biocomplex

The aim of this study was to evaluate the behavior of human Dental Pulp Stem Cells (DPSCs), as well as human osteoblasts, when challenged on a Biocoral scaffold, which is a porous natural hydroxyapatite. For this purpose, human DPSCs were seeded onto a three-dimensional (3D) Biocoral scaffold or on flask surface (control). Either normal or rotative (3D) cultures were performed. Scanning electron microscopic analyses, at 8, 24 and 48 h of culture showed that cells did not adhere on the external surface, but moved into the cavities inside the Biocoral structure. After 7, 15 and 30 days of culture, morphological and molecular analyses suggested that the Biocoral scaffold leads DPSCs to hook into the cavities where these cells quickly start to secrete the extra cellular matrix (ECM) and differentiate into osteoblasts. Control human osteoblasts also moved into the internal cavities where they secreted the ECM. Histological sections revealed a diffuse bone formation inside the Biocoral samples seeded with DPSCs or human osteoblasts, where the original scaffold and the new secreted biomaterial were completely integrated and cells were found within the remaining cavities. In addition, RT-PCR analyses showed a significant increase of osteoblast-related gene expression and, above all, of those genes highly expressed in mineralized tissues, including osteocalcin, OPN and BSP. Furthermore, the effects on the interaction between osteogenesis and angiogenesis were observed and substantiated by ELISA assays. Taken together, our results provide clear evidence that DPSCs differentiated into osteoblasts, forming a biocomplex made of Biocoral, ECM and differentiated cells.     

Omega-3 and Omega-6 Fatty Acids Act as Inhibitors of the Matrix Metalloproteinase-2 and Matrix Metalloproteinase-9 Activity

Polyunsaturated fatty acids have been reported to play a protective role in a wide range of diseases characterized by an increased metalloproteinases (MMPs) activity. The recent finding that omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids exert an anti-inflammatory effect in periodontal diseases has stimulated the present study, designed to determine whether such properties derive from a direct inhibitory action of these compounds on the activity of MMPs. To this issue, we investigated the effect exerted by omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids on the activity of MMP-2 and MMP-9, two enzymes that actively participate to the destruction of the organic matrix of dentin following demineralization operated by bacteria acids. Data obtained (both in vitro and on ex-vivo teeth) reveal that omega-3 and omega-6 fatty acids inhibit the proteolytic activity of MMP-2 and MMP-9, two enzymes present in dentin. This observation is of interest since it assigns to these compounds a key role as MMPs inhibitors, and stimulates further study to better define their therapeutic potentialities in carious decay.     

Effect of vaccines and antivirals during the major 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave in Norway--and the influence of vaccination timing

To evaluate the impact of mass vaccination with adjuvanted vaccines (eventually 40% population coverage) and antivirals during the 2009 influenza pandemic in Norway, we fitted an age-structured SEIR model using data on vaccinations and sales of antivirals in 2009/10 in Norway to Norwegian ILI surveillance data from 5 October 2009 to 4 January 2010. We estimate a clinical attack rate of approximately 30% (28.7-29.8%), with highest disease rates among children 0-14 years (43-44%). Vaccination started in week 43 and came too late to have a strong influence on the pandemic in Norway. Our results indicate that the countermeasures prevented approximately 11-12% of potential cases relative to an unmitigated pandemic. Vaccination was found responsible for roughly 3 in 4 of the avoided infections. An estimated 50% reduction in the clinical attack rate would have resulted from vaccination alone, had the campaign started 6 weeks earlier. Had vaccination been prioritized for children first, the intervention should have commenced approximately 5 weeks earlier in order to achieve the same 50% reduction. In comparison, we estimate that a non-adjuvanted vaccination program should have started 8 weeks earlier to lower the clinical attack rate by 50%. In conclusion, vaccination timing was a critical factor in relation to the spread of the 2009 A(H1N1) influenza. Our results also corroborate the central role of children for the transmission of A(H1N1) pandemic influenza.     

A severely symptomatic case of anaerobic chronic bacterial prostatitis successfully resolved with moxifloxacin therapy

It has been demonstrated that patients showing symptoms of chronic bacterial prostatitis but culture-negative prostate-specific specimens can benefit from administration of antibacterial agents. This suggests that organisms that are not isolated in the routine practice may be responsible for prostate infection in an undefined fraction of subjects. Anaerobic bacteria have been proposed to play a pathogenic role in CBP, on the basis of studies describing clinical remission after eradication of pathogens like Peptostreptococcus spp or Bacterioides spp from prostatic secretions of symptomatic patients, or the significant association between prostatic infection by anaerobes and the presence of inflammation markers in prostatic secretions.In this paper, we report in detail a case of severely symptomatic chronic prostatitis in a patient with evidence of infection by Peptostreptococcus. We also report for the first time that treatment with the 3rd generation fluoroquinolone moxifloxacin was successful in eradicating the pathogen and in causing dramatic resolution of signs and symptoms of chronic bacterial prostatitis.The strict association between eradication of Peptostreptococcus and the rapid disappearance of clinical signs/symptoms points to a causative role of this anaerobe in the chronic bacterial prostatitis case described in this report.     

Some model based considerations on observing generation times for communicable diseases

The generation time of an infectious disease is usually defined as the time from the moment one person becomes infected until that person infects another person. The concept is similar to “generation gap” in demography, with new infections replacing births in a population. Originally applied to diseases such as measles where at least the first generations are clearly discernible, the concept has recently been extended to other diseases, such as influenza, where time order of infections is usually much less apparent.By formulating the relevant statistical questions within a simple yet basic mathematical model for infection spread, it is possible to derive theoretical properties of observations in various situations e.g. in “isolation”, in households, or during large outbreaks. In each case, it is shown that the sampling distribution of observations depends on a number of factors, usually not considered in the literature and that must be taken into account in order to achieve unbiased inference about the generation time distribution. Some implications of these findings for statistical inference methods in epidemic spread models are discussed.