Time to Pregnancy: A Computational Method for Using the Duration of Non-Conception for Predicting Conception

An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple''s future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple''s fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes'' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple''s chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple''s expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility.     

PHYLOGENY OF THE SUBFAMILIES OF THE FAMILY BRACONIDAE (HYMENOPTERA: ICHNEUMONOIDEA): A REASSESSMENT

Abstract— The recently published phylogeny of Braconidae by Quicke and van Achterberg is reassessed. Character-state definitions and character polarities are evaluated, and more rigorous methods are suggested. Our results indicate that there are many more parsimonious solutions to their data set, the consensus of which differs substantially from their results. Based on our reassessment, little can be said about the relationships among braconid subfamilies. Consensus trees show the cyclostomes as a largely unresolved basal grade. The two other major lineages which have been proposed, the helconoids and microgastroids, are somewhat better resolved, but not consistently so. Relationships among the helconoids vary considerably depending on the parameters used for parsimony analysis.     

The persistence of Legionella pneumophila in non-sterile, sterile and artificial hard waters and their growth pattern on tap washer fittings

Simultaneous experiments were performed with sterilized and non-sterile water and an artificial hard water. After seeding with an environmental isolate of Legionella pneumophila numbers in the sterile land hard water decreased rapidly and colonization of various tap washer fittings failed to take place. Adhesion and growth of an environmental isolate of L. pneumophila to washers in non-sterile tap water was followed over a 4-month period with fluorescein-labelled antibody and by scanning electron microscopy. After adherence the individual cells appeared to divide to form chains which spread over the surfaces. Organisms other than legionellas were also present and a complex colonization matt was formed which was embedded in a protective coat of slime and debris. The numbers of L. pneumophila recovered from the water were highest between 4 and 7 weeks but they could still be cultivated after 4 months.     

The structure of the cuticle and sheath of the infective juvenile of Trichostrongylus colubriformis

The infective third-stage juvenile of Trichostrongylus colubriformis is surrounded by its own cuticle as well as the incompletely moulted cuticle of the second-stage juvenile, which is referred to as the sheath. The sheath comprises an outer epicuticle, an amorphous cortical zone, a fibrous basal zone and an inner electron-dense layer. The basal zone of the sheath consists of three layers of fibres; the fibres are parallel within each layer, but the fibre direction of the middle layer is at an angle to that of the inner and outer layers. The cuticle comprises a complex outer epicuticle, an amorphous cortical zone and a striated basal zone. The lateral alae of the cuticle and the sheath are aligned and overlie the lateral hypodermal cords. The lateral alae of the sheath consist of two wing-like expansions of the cortical zone with associated specializations of the inner electron-dense layer which form a groove. The cuticular lateral alae consist of two tube-like expansions of the cortical zone. The lateral alar complex of the cuticle and the sheath may maximise locomotory efficiency and prevent rotation of the juvenile within the sheath.     

Somatic hybrids between Solanum brevidens and Solanum tuberosum: Expression of a late blight resistance gene and potato leaf roll resistance

Hexaploid somatic hybrids resulting from mesophyll protoplast fusions between Solanum brevidens Phil., PI 218228, and Solanum tuberosum L., PI 203900 were tested for late blight resistance using two races of Phytophthora infestans Monte., de Bary. The S. tuberosum parent was a late blight differential possessing the R4 gene which confers resistance to race 0. The S. brevidens parent is resistant to potato leaf roll virus. Inoculations with both compatible (race 1.3.4.5) and incompatible (race 0) races of P. infestans clearly demonstrated the expression of the late blight resistance gene in all of the hybrid progeny tested. Most of the hybrids tested were also resistant to potato leaf roll virus (PLRV), indicating that the S. brevidens genes for PLRV resistance were present and expressed.     

Bacillus thuringiensis and control of plant pests

Summary The feasibility ofB. thuringiensis as an economic insect control agent is dependent upon various factors. Consideration of three situations. whereB. thuringiensis could be used illustrates the interaction of these factors, and their contribution to determining the success or failure of the organism as an insecticide. Apple crops suffer from attack by a complex of insect pests, many of which are very susceptible to theB. thuringiensis toxin. However chemical control methods are preferred by growers in order to satisfy the consumers' demand for top quality blemish-free fruit. By contrast cotton growers are beset with problems of pest resistance to chemical insecticides. This problem is tackled by using pest management strategies which orchestrate all possible methods of control. Such a situation is ideally suited toB. thuringiensis products, but as yet they have proven to be of inadequate efficacy. The softwood forest industry is an example whereB. thuringiensis is both needed and effective. The pest complex is relatively simple, and there is public concern about the health risks of chemical sprays. Recent developments of high performance formulations means thatB. thuringiensis is an economic, cost-effective, biological alternative to chemical control for forestry pests.

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Resumen La posibilidad de utilizarB. thuringiensis para el control de insectos de una forma económica depende de varios factores. La consideración de tres situaciones distintas en las queB. thuringiensis puede ser utilizado ilustra la interacción de estos factores y su contribución al éxito o fracaso del organismo como insecticida. El cultivo de manzanas sufre el ataque de una serie de plagas de insectos, muchas de las cuales son susceptibles a la toxina deB. thuringiensis. Sin embargo, los agricultores prefieren utilizar métodos de control químico a fin de satisfacer la demanda del consumidor por un fruto de primera calidad sin marcas ni señales. Por el contrario, los cultivadores de algodon estan sensibilizados a los problemas de la aparición de plagas resistentes a los insecticidas químicos. Este problema se ha abordado utilizando sistemas de control integrado que aglutinan todos los posibles métodos de control. Esta situación parece la ideal para el uso de productos a base deB. thuringiensis, pero hasta ahora estos han resultado ser poco eficaces. La industria de la madera blanda constituye en ejemplo en el cualB. thuringiensis es a la vez necesario y efectivo. Las plagas en cuestión forman un sistema relativamente simple y los efectos de los sprays químicos sobre la salud pública son causa de preocupación. Los desarrollos recientes en formulaciones de elevada eficacia convierten aB. thuringiensis en una alternativa biológica económicamente factible frente al control químico de plagas forestales.

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Résumé La possibilité d'utiliser économiquementB. thuringiensis dans la lutte contre les insectes nuisibles dépend de facteurs divers. L'examen de trois situations dans lesquellesB. thuringiensis peut être utilisé illustre l'interaction de ces facteurs et leur contribution dans le succès ou l'échec de cet organisme comme insecticide. Les récoltes de pommes sont menacées par les attaques d'un mélange complexe d'insectes, dont beaucoup sont sensibles à la toxine deB. thuringiensis. Cependant, les horticulteurs préfèrent les méthodes chimiques à cause de l'exigence des consommateurs pour des fruits de haute qualité et sans aucune tache. Par contre, les cultivateurs de coton sont obsédés par les problèmes de résistance aux insecticides chimiques. Ce problème est affronté par des stratégies faisant appel à tous les moyens de lutte possibles. C'est une situation convenant bien aux produits qui contiennentB. thuringiensis, mais jusqu'ici ces produits se sont montrés inefficaces. L'industrie du bois tendre forestier est toutefois un exemple de cas oùB. thuringiensis est à la fois nécessaire et efficace. En effet, le complexe des insectes agressifs est relativement simple et il existe en outre une prévention du public contre les risques sanitaires des pulvérisations de produits chimiques. La mise au point récente de formulations à haute performance démontre queB. thuringiensis est, pour la lutte contre les insectes nuisibles des forêts, une alternative économique et bon-marché.

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Invited paper presented at the VII International Conference on the Global Impacts of Applied Microbiology, Helsiki, 12–16 August 1985. Session 8     

Inhibition of virus-induced diabetes mellitus by interferon is influenced by the host strain

The diabetogenic variant of encephalomyocarditis virus (EMC-D) induces a diabetes-like syndrome in certain strains of mice. A study was done to determine if virus-induced diabetes could be prevented by interferon (IFN). It was found that the production of diabetes by EMC-D was blocked by either IFN beta or a variety of IFN-inducers in SWR/J, but not ICR Swiss mice. The replication of EMC-D in cell culture was inhibited by IFN beta. It is concluded that the response of pancreatic beta cells to the protective effect of IFN, is probably under genetic control.     

On the relationship of ultrastructural and cytochemical features to color in mammalian skeletal muscle

Summary The semitendinosus muscle of the albino rat is divided grossly into two clearly distinguishable parallel longitudinal bands, one red (anterior) and the other white (posterior). By using mitochondrial content as a criterion for distinguishing fiber types, it is demonstrated that the red portion of the muscle is composed predominantly of red (52%) and intermediate (40%) fibers, while the white portion consists primarily of white fibers (82%). Red fibers have the smallest and white fibers have the largest average diameter. Ultrastructural characteristics of the three fiber types resemble closely those previously described for the rat diaphragm. Red fibers are rich in large mitochondria with abundant cristae, and possess the widest Z lines. In red fibers, the H-band region of the sarcoplasmic reticulum consists of an elaborate network of narrow tubules. In white fibers, mitochondria are smaller, less numerous, and have fewer cristae; Z lines are about half as wide as in red fibers. In the H-band region of the sarcoplasmic reticulum there is a more compact arrangement of broad more or less parallel tubules. Intermediate fibers are similar to red fibers except that their diameters are larger; mitochondria are somewhat smaller and cristae are less abundant; the width of the Z lines is close to that of white fibers. The consistent difference in Z line width establishes this dimension as an important criterion for distinguishing fiber types and facilitates ultrastructural identification, especially of the intermediate fiber.The clear relationship between color of the semitendinosus and cytological features of its component fibers supports the use of the terms red, white, and intermediate as simple and valid designations for fiber types in mammalian skeletal muscle. Measurement of the cross-sectional area contributed by each fiber type to the total area indicates that both red and intermediate fibers may contribute to redness in mammalian skeletal muscle.An early portion of this work was carried out with MissSharon Whelan (Mrs.Bernard Weiss). The author acknowledges the important contribution of Mr.Richard Stearns through his skillful work on the photographic illustrations and the technical assistance of MissAnn Campbell and Mrs.Joan Normington. — This study was supported by Grant No. HD 01026-04 from the United States Public Health Service.