Time to Pregnancy: A Computational Method for Using the Duration of Non-Conception for Predicting Conception

An important problem in reproductive medicine is deciding when people who have failed to become pregnant without medical assistance should begin investigation and treatment. This study describes a computational approach to determining what can be deduced about a couple''s future chances of pregnancy from the number of menstrual cycles over which they have been trying to conceive. The starting point is that a couple''s fertility is inherently uncertain. This uncertainty is modelled as a probability distribution for the chance of conceiving in each menstrual cycle. We have developed a general numerical computational method, which uses Bayes'' theorem to generate a posterior distribution for a couple''s chance of conceiving in each cycle, conditional on the number of previous cycles of attempted conception. When various metrics of a couple''s expected chances of pregnancy were computed as a function of the number of cycles over which they had been trying to conceive, we found good fits to observed data on time to pregnancy for different populations. The commonly-used standard of 12 cycles of non-conception as an indicator of subfertility was found to be reasonably robust, though a larger or smaller number of cycles may be more appropriate depending on the population from which a couple is drawn and the precise subfertility metric which is most relevant, for example the probability of conception in the next cycle or the next 12 cycles. We have also applied our computational method to model the impact of female reproductive ageing. Results indicate that, for women over the age of 35, it may be appropriate to start investigation and treatment more quickly than for younger women. Ignoring reproductive decline during the period of attempted conception added up to two cycles to the computed number of cycles before reaching a metric of subfertility.     

Guidelines for the Control of Human Immunodeficiency Virus Infection in Adolescents

Although adolescents account for only 0.4% of reported cases of the acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in the United States, they are sexually active and, therefore, at risk of acquiring human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. To address issues of HIV control in adolescents, we developed guidelines that emphasize education and medical care and deemphasize antibody testing. For adolescents known to be infected with HIV, we recommend no restrictions on access to educational or treatment programs except when their health providers recommend such restrictions to protect them from exposure to opportunistic infections. For adolescents of unknown antibody status with a possible previous exposure to HIV, we recommend that as long as the incidence of HIV infection and clinical AIDS remains low, there should be no restrictions on residential placements and no routine antibody testing.     

Cytotoxic T lymphocyte recognition of novel allodeterminants expressed on in vitro selected H-2Kb mutants

In the present study, in vitro derived H-2Kb mutants have been examined by alloreactive CTL. Two mutants, R8.24 and R8.246, have been shown to express novel determinants detected by CTL generated against some but not all in vivo derived Kb mutants. BDF1 anti-bm3, anti-bm11, anti-bm19, anti-bm23, and anti-bm6 CTL populations lyse the two R8 variants. The novel determinants expressed on the R8 mutants detected by the bm3 and bm23-specific CTL appear to differ from the determinant recognized by the bm6-specific CTL. No new serologically defined determinants were detected on any of 18 independent R8 variants. However, these results do not rule out the existence of new determinants which could be recognized by antibodies. Finally, the relationship between the T cell recognition of the in vivo and in vitro derived mutants and their use in understanding the structure/function relationships between the immune response and class I Ag based on recent crystallographic analyses is discussed.     

Identification of monoclonal antibodies specific for the T cell receptor complex by Fc receptor-mediated CTL lysis

Monoclonal antibodies (mAb) directed at the T cell receptor complex (TcR) on cloned T cells have generally been identified by their ability to inhibit the clone's antigen-specific function. Because such inhibition is highly dependent on antibody concentration and affinity, detection of anti-clonotypic antibodies to murine alloreactive T cells has been very difficult. In this report, an alternative method is described on the basis of the ability of antibodies specific for the TcR complex to activate T cells in an antigen-independent manner. The assay is based upon the observation that soluble antibodies to human T3 promote lysis of irrelevant, Fc receptor-positive targets by a human CTL line. By using this approach, an anti-TcR mAb has been identified among a panel of murine mAb generated against an alloreactive CTL clone. Induction of lysis by soluble anti-TcR mAb has been shown to require both the expression of Fc receptors on the target cell and conjugate formation between the effector and the target cell. This assay provides a screening procedure that is much more sensitive than inhibition of function, and it preferentially detects antibodies specific for cell surface molecules involved in T cell activation.     

Evaluation of ion gradient-dependent H+ transport systems in isolated enterocytes from the chick

Summary The experiments reported here evaluate the capability of isolated intestinal epithelial cells to accomplish net H⁺ transport in response to imposed ion gradients. In most cases, the membrane potential was kept constant by means of a K⁺ plus valinomycin voltage clamp in order to prevent electrical coupling of ion fluxes. Net H⁺ flux across the cellular membrane was examined at pH 6.0 (the physiological lumenal pH) and at pH 7.4 using methylamine distribution or recordings of changes in media pH. Results from both techniques suggest that the cells have an Na⁺/H⁺ exchange system in the plasma membrane that is capable of rapid and sustained changes in intracellular pH in response to an imposed Na⁺ gradient. The kinetics of the Na⁺/H⁺ exchange reaction at pH 6.0 [K _t for Na⁺=57mm,V _max=42 mmol H⁺/liter 3OMG (3-O-methylglucose) space/min] are dramatically different from those at pH 7.4 (K _t for Na⁺=15mm,V _max=1.7 mmol H⁺/liter 3OMG space/min). Experiments involving imposed K⁺ gradients suggest that these cells have negligible K⁺/H⁺ exchange capability. They exhibit limited but measurable H⁺ conductance. Anion exchange for base equivalents was not detected in experiments performed in media nominally free of bicarbonate.     

A note on the survival of Legionella pneumophila in stagnant tap water

Tap water, from an experimental hot water system, containing a known virulent strain of Legionella pneumophila was stored in screw-capped bottles for 14 months. Viable counts showed survival of L. pneumophila and at least three other bacterial species. This reinforces the view that L. pneumophila can survive in stagnant water foatively long periods of time.     

The persistence of Legionella pneumophila in non-sterile, sterile and artificial hard waters and their growth pattern on tap washer fittings

Simultaneous experiments were performed with sterilized and non-sterile water and an artificial hard water. After seeding with an environmental isolate of Legionella pneumophila numbers in the sterile land hard water decreased rapidly and colonization of various tap washer fittings failed to take place. Adhesion and growth of an environmental isolate of L. pneumophila to washers in non-sterile tap water was followed over a 4-month period with fluorescein-labelled antibody and by scanning electron microscopy. After adherence the individual cells appeared to divide to form chains which spread over the surfaces. Organisms other than legionellas were also present and a complex colonization matt was formed which was embedded in a protective coat of slime and debris. The numbers of L. pneumophila recovered from the water were highest between 4 and 7 weeks but they could still be cultivated after 4 months.     

Condensed tannins: co-occurrence of procyanidins,prodelphinidins and profisetinidins in the heartwood of Acacia baileyana

The flavonoids and condensed tannins of the heartwood of Acacia baileyana var. purpurea are described. In conformity with other Acacia species, the hydroxylation pattern of the flavonoids is of the resorcinol type but, in sharp contrast, the tannins are heterogeneous consisting of a mixture of the resorcinol and phtoroglucinol series. Dimeric proanthocyanidins of the phloroglucinol type were absent and this exception to the general observation that they invariably co-occur with the polymers may be explained by the relative nucleophilicity of the aromatic A-rings.     

Somatic hybrids between Solanum brevidens and Solanum tuberosum: Expression of a late blight resistance gene and potato leaf roll resistance

Hexaploid somatic hybrids resulting from mesophyll protoplast fusions between Solanum brevidens Phil., PI 218228, and Solanum tuberosum L., PI 203900 were tested for late blight resistance using two races of Phytophthora infestans Monte., de Bary. The S. tuberosum parent was a late blight differential possessing the R4 gene which confers resistance to race 0. The S. brevidens parent is resistant to potato leaf roll virus. Inoculations with both compatible (race 1.3.4.5) and incompatible (race 0) races of P. infestans clearly demonstrated the expression of the late blight resistance gene in all of the hybrid progeny tested. Most of the hybrids tested were also resistant to potato leaf roll virus (PLRV), indicating that the S. brevidens genes for PLRV resistance were present and expressed.     

Bacillus thuringiensis and control of plant pests

Summary The feasibility ofB. thuringiensis as an economic insect control agent is dependent upon various factors. Consideration of three situations. whereB. thuringiensis could be used illustrates the interaction of these factors, and their contribution to determining the success or failure of the organism as an insecticide. Apple crops suffer from attack by a complex of insect pests, many of which are very susceptible to theB. thuringiensis toxin. However chemical control methods are preferred by growers in order to satisfy the consumers' demand for top quality blemish-free fruit. By contrast cotton growers are beset with problems of pest resistance to chemical insecticides. This problem is tackled by using pest management strategies which orchestrate all possible methods of control. Such a situation is ideally suited toB. thuringiensis products, but as yet they have proven to be of inadequate efficacy. The softwood forest industry is an example whereB. thuringiensis is both needed and effective. The pest complex is relatively simple, and there is public concern about the health risks of chemical sprays. Recent developments of high performance formulations means thatB. thuringiensis is an economic, cost-effective, biological alternative to chemical control for forestry pests.

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Resumen La posibilidad de utilizarB. thuringiensis para el control de insectos de una forma económica depende de varios factores. La consideración de tres situaciones distintas en las queB. thuringiensis puede ser utilizado ilustra la interacción de estos factores y su contribución al éxito o fracaso del organismo como insecticida. El cultivo de manzanas sufre el ataque de una serie de plagas de insectos, muchas de las cuales son susceptibles a la toxina deB. thuringiensis. Sin embargo, los agricultores prefieren utilizar métodos de control químico a fin de satisfacer la demanda del consumidor por un fruto de primera calidad sin marcas ni señales. Por el contrario, los cultivadores de algodon estan sensibilizados a los problemas de la aparición de plagas resistentes a los insecticidas químicos. Este problema se ha abordado utilizando sistemas de control integrado que aglutinan todos los posibles métodos de control. Esta situación parece la ideal para el uso de productos a base deB. thuringiensis, pero hasta ahora estos han resultado ser poco eficaces. La industria de la madera blanda constituye en ejemplo en el cualB. thuringiensis es a la vez necesario y efectivo. Las plagas en cuestión forman un sistema relativamente simple y los efectos de los sprays químicos sobre la salud pública son causa de preocupación. Los desarrollos recientes en formulaciones de elevada eficacia convierten aB. thuringiensis en una alternativa biológica económicamente factible frente al control químico de plagas forestales.

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Résumé La possibilité d'utiliser économiquementB. thuringiensis dans la lutte contre les insectes nuisibles dépend de facteurs divers. L'examen de trois situations dans lesquellesB. thuringiensis peut être utilisé illustre l'interaction de ces facteurs et leur contribution dans le succès ou l'échec de cet organisme comme insecticide. Les récoltes de pommes sont menacées par les attaques d'un mélange complexe d'insectes, dont beaucoup sont sensibles à la toxine deB. thuringiensis. Cependant, les horticulteurs préfèrent les méthodes chimiques à cause de l'exigence des consommateurs pour des fruits de haute qualité et sans aucune tache. Par contre, les cultivateurs de coton sont obsédés par les problèmes de résistance aux insecticides chimiques. Ce problème est affronté par des stratégies faisant appel à tous les moyens de lutte possibles. C'est une situation convenant bien aux produits qui contiennentB. thuringiensis, mais jusqu'ici ces produits se sont montrés inefficaces. L'industrie du bois tendre forestier est toutefois un exemple de cas oùB. thuringiensis est à la fois nécessaire et efficace. En effet, le complexe des insectes agressifs est relativement simple et il existe en outre une prévention du public contre les risques sanitaires des pulvérisations de produits chimiques. La mise au point récente de formulations à haute performance démontre queB. thuringiensis est, pour la lutte contre les insectes nuisibles des forêts, une alternative économique et bon-marché.

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Invited paper presented at the VII International Conference on the Global Impacts of Applied Microbiology, Helsiki, 12–16 August 1985. Session 8