Pitfalls to avoid in nonlinear perturbation analysis of structured population models

Despite the ubiquity of nonlinear functional relationships in nature we tend to characterize mechanisms in science using more tractable linear functions. In demographic modeling, transfer function analysis is used to calculate the nonlinear response of population growth rate to a theoretical perturbation of one or more matrix elements. This elegant approach is not yet popular in ecology. Inconveniently, using transfer function without care can produce erroneous results without warning. We used a large matrix projection model database to explore the potential pitfalls to be avoided in using transfer function analysis. We asked a fundamental population control question, what matrix element perturbation would be needed to reach a minimum goal of replacement population growth? We then tracked instances in which transfer function yields erroneous output and explored these cases in detail to measure how frequently it occurs. We developed a phylogenetically-corrected mixed effects logistic regression model in a Bayesian framework to test the effect of species traits and the identity of matrix elements on the probability that transfer function yields errors. We found in 16% of cases the transfer function yielded erroneous outcomes. These errors were more likely when perturbing demographic stasis and also for shrubs more than any other life form. Errors in transfer function analysis were often due to perturbing matrix elements beyond their biological limits, even when this is still mathematically correct. To use transfer function analysis properly in demographic modeling and avoid erroneous results, input must be carefully selected to include only a biologically admissible set of perturbations.     

Socioeconomic Factors and Cultural Changes Explain the Knowledge and Use of Ouricuri Palm (Syagrus coronata) by the Fulni–ô Indigenous People of Northeast Brazil

Economic Botany - Socioeconomic Factors and Cultural Changes Explain the Knowledge and Use of Ouricuri Palm (Syagrus coronata) by the Fulni–ô Indigenous People of Northeast...     

Recurrent fruit harvesting reduces seedling density but increases the frequency of clonal reproduction in a tropical tree

Studies on the ecological impacts of non‐timber forest products (NTFP) harvest reveal that plants are often more resilient to fruit and seed harvest than to bark and root harvest. Several studies indicate that sustainable fruit harvesting limits can be set very high (>80% fruit harvesting intensity). For species with clonal and sexual reproduction, understanding how fruit harvest affects clonal reproduction can shed light on the genetic risks and sustainability of NTFP harvest. We studied 18 populations of a gallery forest tree, Pentadesma butyracea (Clusiaceae), to test the impact of fruits harvest, climate and habitat size (gallery forest width) on the frequency of sexual or clonal recruitment in Benin, West Africa. We sampled populations in two ecological regions (Sudanian and Sudano‐Guinean) and in each region, we selected sites with low, moderate and high fruit harvesting intensities. These populations were selected in gallery forests with varying width to sample the natural variation in P. butyracea habitat size. Heavily harvested populations produced significantly less seedlings but had the highest density and proportion of clonal offspring. Our study suggests that for plant species with dual reproductive strategy (via seeds and clonal), fruit harvesting and associated disturbances that come with it can lead to an increase in the proportion of clonal offspring. This raises the issue that excessive fruit harvest by increasing the proportion of clonal offspring to the detriment of seed originated offspring may lead to a reduction in genetic diversity with consequence on harvested species capability to withstand environmental stochasticity.     

Unexplained variability among spatial replicates in transient elasticity: implications for evolutionary ecology and management of invasive species

Understanding actual and potential selection on traits of invasive species requires an assessment of the sources of variation in demographic rates. While some of this variation is assignable to environmental, biotic or historical factors, unexplained demographic variation also may play an important role. Even when sites and populations are chosen as replicates, the residual variation in demographic rates can lead to unexplained divergence of asymptotic and transient population dynamics. This kind of divergence could be important for understanding long- and short- term differences among populations of invasive species, but little is known about it. We investigated the demography of a small invasive tree Psidium cattleianum Sabine in the rainforest of Hawaiʻi at four sites chosen for their ecological similarity. Specifically, we parameterized and analyzed integral projection models (IPM) to investigate projected variability among replicate populations in: (1) total population size and annual per capita population growth rate during the transient and asymptotic periods; (2) population structure initially and asymptotically; (3) three key parameters that characterize transient dynamics (the weighted distance of the structure at each time step from the asymptotic structure, the strength of the sub-dominant relative to the dominant dynamics, and inherent cyclicity in the subdominant); and (4) proportional sensitivity (elasticity) of population growth rates (both asymptotic and transient) to perturbations of various components of the life cycle. We found substantial variability among replicate populations in all these aspects of the dynamics. We discuss potential consequences of variability across ecologically similar sites for management and evolutionary ecology in the exotic range of invasive species.     

Alkaloid-Poor Plant Families,Poaceae and Cyperaceae,Are Over-Utilized for Medicine in Hawaiian Pharmacopoeia

The theory of non-random medicinal plant selection predicts that the number of medicinal plant species in a given family is related to the total number of species in that family. As a consequence of such a strong relationship, some plant families are over-utilized for medicinal purposes while others are not. Medicinal plant families that are often over-utilized share evolutionary traits such as the presence of secondary plant compounds which are known to have medicinal values. Consistent with this model, several studies have shown that alkaloid-poor plant families such as Poaceae and Cyperaceae, two families known more for their physical defenses rather than their chemical defenses, are medicinally under-utilized across the world. In this study, we demonstrate that contrary to expectation, Poaceae and Cyperaceae are over-utilized in the Hawaiian ethnopharmacopoeia. One reason for this over-utilization is a result of the Hawaiian cultural practice of converting plants in the Poaceae and Cyperaceae families into ash for direct medicinal use or as a component in other medicinal preparations. The over-utilization of Poaceae and Cyperaceae is also potentially due to their versatility and greater availability in parts of the land divisions where most humans are allowed to visit. Knowledge of how to use ash is taught through mo‘olelo, Hawaiian history, and represents a Native Hawaiian understanding of and relationship to chemical knowledge. Our study provides new evidence for the theory of non-random medicinal plant selection and shows, contrary to expectation, that unique patterns of plant family over-utilization could arise in unique cultural and geographical contexts.     

Altitude‐mediated soil properties,not geography or climatic distance,explain the distribution of a tropical endemic herb

Understanding the ecological processes that govern species'' range margins is a fundamental question in ecology with practical implications in conservation biology. The center‐periphery hypothesis predicts that organisms have higher abundance at the center of their geographic range. However, most tests of this hypothesis often used raster data, assuming that climatic conditions are consistent across one square km. This assumption is not always justified, particularly for mountainous species for which climatic conditions can vary widely across a small spatial scale. Previous studies rarely evenly sample occurrence data across the species'' distribution. In this study, we sampled an endemic perennial herb, Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthanceae), throughout its range in West Africa using 54 plots and collected data on (a)biotic variables, the species density, leaf mass per area, and basal diameter. We built a structural equation model to test the direct and indirect effects of distance from geographic and climatic niche centers, and altitude on Thunbergia density as mediated by abiotic and biotic factors, population demographic structure, and individual size. Contrary to the prediction of the center‐periphery hypothesis, we found no significant effect of distance from geographic or climatic niche centers on plant density. This indicates that even the climatic center does not necessarily have optimal ecological conditions. In contrast, plant density varied with altitudinal gradient, but this was mediated by the effect of soil nitrogen and potassium which had positive effect on plant size. Surprisingly, we found no direct or mediating effect of interspecific competition on plant density. Altogether, our results highlight the role of geography, climatic, and ecological mismatch in predicting species distribution. Our study highlights that where altitudinal gradient is strong local‐scale heterogeneity in abiotic factors can play important role in shaping species range limits.     

Non‐timber Forest Product Harvest does not Affect the Genetic Diversity of a Tropical Tree Despite Negative Effects on Population Fitness

The level of genetic diversity in a population can affect ecological processes and plant responses to disturbance. In turn, disturbance can alter population genetic diversity and structure. Populations in fragmented and logged habitats often show reduced genetic diversity and increased inbreeding and differentiation. Long‐term harvesting of wild plants (for foliage, bark, and roots), can affect population genetic diversity by altering individual fitness and genetic contribution. Our understanding of these changes in genetic diversity due to the harvesting of plant organs is still limited. We used nine microsatellite markers to study the effect of long‐term bark and foliage harvest by Fulani people on the genetic diversity and structure of 12 populations of African mahogany (Khaya senegalensis) in Benin. We sampled 20 individuals in each population to test the effect of harvesting. For each population, we divided the samples equally between seedling and adults to test if the effects are stronger in seedlings. We found moderate genetic diversity (H_e = 0.53 ± 0.04) and weak but significant differentiation among local populations (F_ST = 0.043, P < 0.001). There was no significant effect of harvest on genetic diversity or structure, although previous work found significant negative effects of harvest on the reproduction of adults, offspring density, and population fitness. Our results suggest that demographic responses to disturbance precede a detectable genetic response. Future studies should focus on using parentage analysis to test if genotypes of harvested parents are directly represented in the offspring populations.