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Emily C. Farrer Isabel W. Ashton Jonas Knape Katharine N. Suding 《Global Change Biology》2014,20(4):1238-1250
Two sources of complexity make predicting plant community response to global change particularly challenging. First, realistic global change scenarios involve multiple drivers of environmental change that can interact with one another to produce non‐additive effects. Second, in addition to these direct effects, global change drivers can indirectly affect plants by modifying species interactions. In order to tackle both of these challenges, we propose a novel population modeling approach, requiring only measurements of abundance and climate over time. To demonstrate the applicability of this approach, we model population dynamics of eight abundant plant species in a multifactorial global change experiment in alpine tundra where we manipulated nitrogen, precipitation, and temperature over 7 years. We test whether indirect and interactive effects are important to population dynamics and whether explicitly incorporating species interactions can change predictions when models are forecast under future climate change scenarios. For three of the eight species, population dynamics were best explained by direct effect models, for one species neither direct nor indirect effects were important, and for the other four species indirect effects mattered. Overall, global change had negative effects on species population growth, although species responded to different global change drivers, and single‐factor effects were slightly more common than interactive direct effects. When the fitted population dynamic models were extrapolated under changing climatic conditions to the end of the century, forecasts of community dynamics and diversity loss were largely similar using direct effect models that do not explicitly incorporate species interactions or best‐fit models; however, inclusion of species interactions was important in refining the predictions for two of the species. The modeling approach proposed here is a powerful way of analyzing readily available datasets which should be added to our toolbox to tease apart complex drivers of global change. 相似文献
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Williams GD Andrews KS Katz SL Moser ML Tolimieri N Farrer DA Levin PS 《Journal of fish biology》2012,80(5):1380-1400
The detailed movements of 32 acoustically tagged broadnose sevengill shark Notorynchus cepedianus were documented in and around north-east Pacific Ocean estuarine embayments from 2005 to 2007. Arrangements of passive acoustic receivers allowed analysis of movement at several spatial scales, with sex and size examined as possible factors influencing the pattern and timing of these movements. Notorynchus cepedianus exhibited a distinctly seasonal pattern of estuary use over three consecutive years, entering Willapa Bay in the spring, residing therein for extended periods of time during the summer and dispersing into nearshore coastal habitats and over the continental shelf during the autumn. Notorynchus cepedianus within Willapa Bay showed spatio-temporal patterns of segregation by size and sex, with males and small females using peripheral southern estuary channels early in the season before joining large females, who remained concentrated in central estuary channels for the entire season. Individuals displayed a high degree of fidelity not only to Willapa Bay (63% were documented returning over three consecutive seasons), but also to specific areas within the estuary, showing consistent patterns of site use from year to year. Cross-estuary movement was common during the summer, with most fish also moving into an adjacent estuarine embayment for some extent of time. Most winter and autumn coastal detections of N. cepedianus were made over the continental shelf near Oregon and Washington, U.S.A., but there were also examples of individuals moving into nearshore coastal habitats further south into California, suggesting the feasibility of broad-scale coastal movements to known birthing and nursery grounds for the species. These findings contribute to a better understanding of N. cepedianus movement ecology, which can be used to improve the holistic management of this highly mobile apex predator in regional ecosystems. 相似文献
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Maraganore DM de Andrade M Lesnick TG Strain KJ Farrer MJ Rocca WA Pant PV Frazer KA Cox DR Ballinger DG 《American journal of human genetics》2005,77(5):685-693
We performed a two-tiered, whole-genome association study of Parkinson disease (PD). For tier 1, we individually genotyped 198,345 uniformly spaced and informative single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 443 sibling pairs discordant for PD. For tier 2a, we individually genotyped 1,793 PD-associated SNPs (P<.01 in tier 1) and 300 genomic control SNPs in 332 matched case-unrelated control pairs. We identified 11 SNPs that were associated with PD (P<.01) in both tier 1 and tier 2 samples and had the same direction of effect. For these SNPs, we combined data from the case-unaffected sibling pair (tier 1) and case-unrelated control pair (tier 2) samples and employed a liberalization of the sibling transmission/disequilibrium test to calculate odds ratios, 95% confidence intervals, and P values. A SNP within the semaphorin 5A gene (SEMA5A) had the lowest combined P value (P=7.62 x 10(-6)). The protein encoded by this gene plays an important role in neurogenesis and in neuronal apoptosis, which is consistent with existing hypotheses regarding PD pathogenesis. A second SNP tagged the PARK11 late-onset PD susceptibility locus (P=1.70 x 10(-5)). In tier 2b, we also selected for genotyping additional SNPs that were borderline significant (P<.05) in tier 1 but that tested a priori biological and genetic hypotheses regarding susceptibility to PD (n=941 SNPs). In analysis of the combined tier 1 and tier 2b data, the two SNPs with the lowest P values (P=9.07 x 10(-6); P=2.96 x 10(-5)) tagged the PARK10 late-onset PD susceptibility locus. Independent replication across populations will clarify the role of the genomic loci tagged by these SNPs in conferring PD susceptibility. 相似文献
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E. A. Stewart A. White J. Tomfohrde S. Osborne-Lawrence L. Prestridge B. Bonne-Tamir I. H. Scheinberg P. St George-Hyslop M. Giagheddu J.-W. Kim J. K. Seo W. H.-y. Lo I. A. Ivanova-Smolenskaya S. A. Limborska L. L. Cavalli-Sforza L. A. Farrer A. M. Bowcock 《American journal of human genetics》1993,53(4):864-873
Wilson disease (WD), an autosomal recessive disorder of copper metabolism, has been previously mapped to chromosome 13q. Highly informative PCR-based polymorphic microsatellites closely linked to the WD locus (WND) at 13q14.3, as well as sequence-tagged sites for closely linked loci, are described. Two polymorphic microsatellite markers at D13S118 and D13S119 lie within 3 cM of WND. Two others (D13S227 and D13S228) were derived from a yeast artificial chromosome containing D13S31. These were placed on a genetic linkage map of chromosome 13 and were typed in 74 multiplex WD families from a variety of geographic origins (166 affected members). Multipoint analysis provides very high odds that the location of WND is between D13S31/D13S227/D13S228 and D13S59. Previous odds with RFLP-based markers were only 7:1 more likely than any other location. Current odds are 5,000:1. Preclinical testing of three cases of WD by using the highly informative polymorphic microsatellite markers is described. The markers described here ensure that 95% of predictive tests using DNA from both parents and from at least one affected sib will have an accuracy >99%. 相似文献
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Surfactant protein-A (SP-A) belongs to a family of collagen-containing C-type lectins called collectins. SP-A is expressed by renal tubule epithelial cells. We investigated the distribution of SP-A in renal cell carcinomas (RCC) using immunohistochemical techniques and western blotting. We used 35 formalin fixed, paraffin embedded (FFPE) RCC tissue samples. We compared results with clinico-pathological parameters of RCC including age, sex, Fuhrman grade, tumor volume, tumor node metastasis (TNM) and clinical stage. SP-A was localized in the glomerulus and renal tubule epithelium in nontumor tissue and strong SP-A immunoreactivity was observed in tumor tissue. SP-A was expressed in the RCC tumor cells (64%) and nontumor cells (34%) in males and RCC tumor cells (90%) and nontumor cells (30%) in females. There was a significant correlation between SP-A immunoreactivity in tumor cells and gender, age, tumor diameter, Fuhrman grade and tumor diameter. Western blot analysis supported the immunohistochemical findings. We present evidence for involvement of SP-A in RCC and suggest that increased SP-A expression in RCC is associated with favorable prognosis. 相似文献
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Identification of a novel risk locus for progressive supranuclear palsy by a pooled genomewide scan of 500,288 single-nucleotide polymorphisms
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Melquist S Craig DW Huentelman MJ Crook R Pearson JV Baker M Zismann VL Gass J Adamson J Szelinger S Corneveaux J Cannon A Coon KD Lincoln S Adler C Tuite P Calne DB Bigio EH Uitti RJ Wszolek ZK Golbe LI Caselli RJ Graff-Radford N Litvan I Farrer MJ Dickson DW Hutton M Stephan DA 《American journal of human genetics》2007,80(4):769-778
To date, only the H1 MAPT haplotype has been consistently associated with risk of developing the neurodegenerative disease progressive supranuclear palsy (PSP). We hypothesized that additional genetic loci may be involved in conferring risk of PSP that could be identified through a pooling-based genomewide association study of >500,000 SNPs. Candidate SNPs with large differences in allelic frequency were identified by ranking all SNPs by their probe-intensity difference between cohorts. The MAPT H1 haplotype was strongly detected by this methodology, as was a second major locus on chromosome 11p12-p11 that showed evidence of association at allelic (P<.001), genotypic (P<.001), and haplotypic (P<.001) levels and was narrowed to a single haplotype block containing the DNA damage-binding protein 2 (DDB2) and lysosomal acid phosphatase 2 (ACP2) genes. Since DNA damage and lysosomal dysfunction have been implicated in aging and neurodegenerative processes, both genes are viable candidates for conferring risk of disease. 相似文献
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Lindsay A. Farrer Batsheva Bonne-Tamir Moshe Frydman Abraham Magazanik Kenneth K. Kidd Anne M. Bowcock Luigi L. Cavalli-Sforza 《Human genetics》1988,79(2):109-117
Summary Recently, the Wilson's disease locus (WND) has been mapped to the long arm of chromosome 13. We have analyzed segregation of serveral chromosome 13 markers flanking the WND locus and used multipoint linkage analysis to determine the most likely WND genotype of each of 57 unaffected individuals in 5 Wilson's disease families. Approximately 46% of these could be classified as carrier (heterozygote), homozygous normal, or homozygous affected (not yet symptomatic) with a probability of at least 90%, while 77% could be classified with a probability of at least 80%. Our results demonstrate that even though there is a significant decrease on average in serum copper concentration in Wilson's disease heterozygotes compared to normal homozygotes, other sources of variation in serum copper concentration are much greater and preclude use of serum copper to detect heterozygotes for Wilson's disease. Subsequent analyses showed that a familial component, independent of WND genotype, is the major factor accounting for variation in ceruloplasmin levels among unaffected individuals; age is another factor accounting for more variation in copper levels among unaffected individuals than WND genotype. 相似文献