How predation and landscape fragmentation affect vole population dynamics

Background

Microtine species in Fennoscandia display a distinct north-south gradient from regular cycles to stable populations. The gradient has often been attributed to changes in the interactions between microtines and their predators. Although the spatial structure of the environment is known to influence predator-prey dynamics of a wide range of species, it has scarcely been considered in relation to the Fennoscandian gradient. Furthermore, the length of microtine breeding season also displays a north-south gradient. However, little consideration has been given to its role in shaping or generating population cycles. Because these factors covary along the gradient it is difficult to distinguish their effects experimentally in the field. The distinction is here attempted using realistic agent-based modelling.

Methodology/Principal Findings

By using a spatially explicit computer simulation model based on behavioural and ecological data from the field vole (Microtus agrestis), we generated a number of repeated time series of vole densities whose mean population size and amplitude were measured. Subsequently, these time series were subjected to statistical autoregressive modelling, to investigate the effects on vole population dynamics of making predators more specialised, of altering the breeding season, and increasing the level of habitat fragmentation. We found that fragmentation as well as the presence of specialist predators are necessary for the occurrence of population cycles. Habitat fragmentation and predator assembly jointly determined cycle length and amplitude. Length of vole breeding season had little impact on the oscillations.

Significance

There is good agreement between our results and the experimental work from Fennoscandia, but our results allow distinction of causation that is hard to unravel in field experiments. We hope our results will help understand the reasons for cycle gradients observed in other areas. Our results clearly demonstrate the importance of landscape fragmentation for population cycling and we recommend that the degree of fragmentation be more fully considered in future analyses of vole dynamics.     

Post-Hoc Pattern-Oriented Testing and Tuning of an Existing Large Model: Lessons from the Field Vole

Pattern-oriented modeling (POM) is a general strategy for modeling complex systems. In POM, multiple patterns observed at different scales and hierarchical levels are used to optimize model structure, to test and select sub-models of key processes, and for calibration. So far, POM has been used for developing new models and for models of low to moderate complexity. It remains unclear, though, whether the basic idea of POM to utilize multiple patterns, could also be used to test and possibly develop existing and established models of high complexity. Here, we use POM to test, calibrate, and further develop an existing agent-based model of the field vole (Microtus agrestis), which was developed and tested within the ALMaSS framework. This framework is complex because it includes a high-resolution representation of the landscape and its dynamics, of the individual’s behavior, and of the interaction between landscape and individual behavior. Results of fitting to the range of patterns chosen were generally very good, but the procedure required to achieve this was long and complicated. To obtain good correspondence between model and the real world it was often necessary to model the real world environment closely. We therefore conclude that post-hoc POM is a useful and viable way to test a highly complex simulation model, but also warn against the dangers of over-fitting to real world patterns that lack details in their explanatory driving factors. To overcome some of these obstacles we suggest the adoption of open-science and open-source approaches to ecological simulation modeling.     

Species Recruitment following Flooding,Sediment Deposition and Seed Addition in Restored Riparian Areas

In recent years an increasing number of streams have been restored to improve conditions for natural fen and meadow vegetation to develop in the associated riparian areas, but with modest success. Here we apply a controlled and replicated approach to investigate the role of flooding, sediment deposition, and seed addition for species recruitment in riparian areas with different types of standing vegetation. We expect that species recruitment is restricted in areas where the vegetation is dominated by fast‐growing productive species because competition for light will make the establishment of new species difficult, especially for low‐productive target species. We found that the naturally recruited species were few, mostly common, and widely distributed species. A majority of the recruited species, including target species added as seeds into the sediments, emerged in all areas independent of the characteristics of the standing vegetation. We observed significant temporal changes in compositional patterns throughout the experimental period (May to October). These changes were especially pronounced in areas with fen/fen‐meadow vegetation and were closely associated with the emergence and growth of species originating from the deposited sediments (e.g. Equisetum pratense, Poa trivialis, Urtica dioica), including the seeded target species (Lychnis flos‐cuculi and Lotus pedunculatus) and with a decline in fen‐associated mosses and small sedges. Compositional changes were also associated with shifts toward more productive species in areas previously dominated by low and intermediately productive species. We infer that flooding and sediment deposition play a limited role for recruitment of target species in riparian areas and that sediment deposition may entail a risk of losing diversity in riparian areas.     

Patterns of fluctuating asymmetry in the limbs of anurans

It has been hypothesized that fluctuating asymmetry (FA) may provide an indication of the functional importance of structures within an organism, with structures that more strongly impact fitness being more symmetric. Based on this idea, we predicted that for tetrapods in which the forelimbs and hindlimbs play an unequal role in locomotion, the less functionally important limb set should display higher levels of FA. We conducted a multispecies test of this hypothesis in anurans (frogs and toads), whose saltatory locomotor mode is powered by the hindlimbs. We also tested whether FA in the forelimbs, which play a more important role during landing, differed between families that differ in the degree of forelimb use in locomotion (Bufonidae vs. Ranidae). We calculated FA from the lengths of humeri and femora measured from disarticulated skeletal specimens of four anuran taxa (Bufonidae: Anaxyrus americanus, Rhinella marina; Ranidae: Lithobates catesbeianus, Lithobates clamitans). Our findings were consistent with the hypothesis that natural selection for increased locomotor performance may influence patterns of FA seen in vertebrate limbs, with all species displaying lower mean FA in the hindlimbs. More subtle functional roles between the forelimbs of bufonids and ranids, however, did not elicit different levels of FA.