The feasibility of age-specific travel restrictions during influenza pandemics

Background

Epidemiological studies have shown that imposing travel restrictions to prevent or delay an influenza pandemic may not be feasible. To delay an epidemic substantially, an extremely high proportion of trips (~99%) would have to be restricted in a homogeneously mixing population. Influenza is, however, strongly influenced by age-dependent transmission dynamics, and the effectiveness of age-specific travel restrictions, such as the selective restriction of travel by children, has yet to be examined.

Methods

A simple stochastic model was developed to describe the importation of infectious cases into a population and to model local chains of transmission seeded by imported cases. The probability of a local epidemic, and the time period until a major epidemic takes off, were used as outcome measures, and travel restriction policies in which children or adults were preferentially restricted were compared to age-blind restriction policies using an age-dependent next generation matrix parameterized for influenza H1N1-2009.

Results

Restricting children from travelling would yield greater reductions to the short-term risk of the epidemic being established locally than other policy options considered, and potentially could delay an epidemic for a few weeks. However, given a scenario with a total of 500 imported cases over a period of a few months, a substantial reduction in the probability of an epidemic in this time period is possible only if the transmission potential were low and assortativity (i.e. the proportion of contacts within-group) were unrealistically high. In all other scenarios considered, age-structured travel restrictions would not prevent an epidemic and would not delay the epidemic for longer than a few weeks.

Conclusions

Selectively restricting children from traveling overseas during a pandemic may potentially delay its arrival for a few weeks, depending on the characteristics of the pandemic strain, but could have less of an impact on the economy compared to restricting adult travelers. However, as long as adults have at least a moderate potential to trigger an epidemic, selectively restricting the higher risk group (children) may not be a practical option to delay the arrival of an epidemic substantially.     

Effects of grazing on plant species diversity and carbon partitioning in semiarid rangelands of northeastern China

Grasslands are one of the most widespread landscapes worldwide, covering approximately one-fifth of the world’s land surface, where grazing is a common practice. How carbon storage responds to grazing in steppes remains poorly understood. We quantified the effects of grazing on community composition and species diversity, and carbon storage in two typical grasslands of northeastern China, one in Horqin and the other one in Hulunbeier. In both grasslands, grazing did not influence plant species diversity. However, it substantially decreased aboveground carbon by 31% and 54% in Horqin and Hulunbeier, respectively. Fenced and grazing treatments showed a similar belowground carbon at both locations. The predominant carbon pool in the study grassland ecosystem was found in the upper 100 cm soil depth, from 98.2 to 99.1% of the total carbon storage. There were no significant effects of grazing on soil carbon neither in the whole profile nor in the uppermost 20 cm soil depth in the two study grasslands. Studies on the effects of varying rangeland management, such as region disparity and grazing systems, may have important consequences on species diversity and carbon partitioning, and thus on rangeland stability and ecosystem functioning.     

Hes1 Increases the Invasion Ability of Colorectal Cancer Cells via the STAT3-MMP14 Pathway

The Notch pathway contributes to self-renewal of tumor-initiating cell and inhibition of normal colonic epithelial cell differentiation. Deregulated expression of Notch1 and Jagged1 is observed in colorectal cancer. Hairy/enhancer of split (HES) family, the most characterized targets of Notch, involved in the development of many cancers. In this study, we explored the role of Hes1 in the tumorigenesis of colorectal cancer. Knocking down Hes1 induced CRC cell senescence and decreased the invasion ability, whereas over-expression of Hes1 increased STAT3 phosphorylation activity and up-regulated MMP14 protein level. We further explored the expression of Hes1 in human colorectal cancer and found high Hes1 mRNA expression is associated with poor prognosis in CRC patients. These findings suggest that Hes1 regulates the invasion ability through the STAT3-MMP14 pathway in CRC cells and high Hes1 expression is a predictor of poor prognosis of CRC.     

A cross-sectional study of HPV vaccine acceptability in Gaborone, Botswana

Background

Cervical cancer is the most common cancer among women in Botswana and elsewhere in Sub-Saharan Africa. We sought to examine whether HPV vaccine is acceptable among parents in Botswana, which recently licensed the vaccine to prevent cervical cancer.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a cross-sectional survey in 2009, around the time the vaccine was first licensed, with adults recruited in general medicine and HIV clinics in Gaborone, the capital of Botswana. Although only 9% (32/376) of respondents had heard of HPV vaccine prior to the survey, 88% (329/376) said they definitely will have their adolescent daughters receive HPV vaccine. Most respondents would get the vaccine for their daughters at a public or community clinic (42%) or a gynecology or obstetrician''s office (39%), and 74% would get it for a daughter if it were available at her school. Respondents were more likely to say that they definitely will get HPV vaccine for their daughters if they had less education (OR = 0.20, 95% CI = 0.07–0.58) or lived more than 30 kilometers from the capital, Gaborone (OR = 2.29, 95% CI = 1.06–4.93). Other correlates of acceptability were expecting to be involved in the decision to get HPV vaccine, thinking the vaccine would be hard to obtain, and perceiving greater severity of HPV-related diseases.

Conclusions

HPV vaccination of adolescent girls would be highly acceptable if the vaccine became widely available to the daughters of healthcare seeking parents in Gaborone, Botswana. Potential HPV vaccination campaigns should provide more information about HPV and the vaccine as well as work to minimize barriers.