Satellite-marked waterfowl reveal migratory connection between H5N1 outbreak areas in China and Mongolia

The role of wild birds in the spread of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 has been greatly debated and remains an unresolved question. However, analyses to determine involvement of wild birds have been hindered by the lack of basic information on their movements in central Asia. Thus, we initiated a programme to document migrations of waterfowl in Asian flyways to inform hypotheses of H5N1 transmission. As part of this work, we studied migration of waterfowl from Qinghai Lake, China, site of the 2005 H5N1 outbreak in wild birds. We examined the null hypothesis that no direct migratory connection existed between Qinghai Lake and H5N1 outbreak areas in central Mongolia, as suggested by some H5N1 phylogeny studies. We captured individuals in 2007 from two of the species that died in the Qinghai Lake outbreaks and marked them with GPS satellite transmitters: Bar-headed Geese Anser indicus ( n  =   14) and Ruddy Shelduck Tadorna ferruginea ( n  =   11). Three of 25 marked birds (one Goose and two Shelducks) migrated to breeding grounds near H5N1 outbreak areas in Mongolia. Our results describe a previously unknown migratory link between the two regions and offer new critical information on migratory movements in the region.     

Influence of lateral gradients of hydrologic connectivity on trophic positions of fishes in the Upper Mississippi River

1. Riverscapes consist of the main channel and lateral slackwater habitats along a gradient of hydrological connectivity from maximum connection in main channel habitats to minimum connection in backwaters. Spatiotemporal differences in water currents along this gradient produce dynamic habitat conditions that influence species diversity, population densities and trophic interactions of fishes. 2. We examined the importance of lateral connectivity gradients for food web dynamics in the Upper Mississippi River during spring (high flow, moderately low temperatures) and summer (low flow, higher temperatures). We used literature information and gut contents analyses to determine feeding guilds and stable isotope analysis to estimate mean trophic position of local fish assemblages. During June and August 2006, we collected over 1000 tissue samples from four habitats (main channel, secondary channels, tertiary channels and backwaters) distributed within four hydrologic connectivity gradients. 3. Mean trophic position differed among feeding guilds and seasons, with highest values in spring. Mean trophic position of fish assemblages, variability in trophic position and food chain length (maximum trophic position) of the two dominant piscivore species (Micropterus salmoides and M. dolomieu) in both seasons were significantly associated with habitat along the lateral connectivity gradient. Food chain length peaked in tertiary channels in both seasons, probably due to higher species diversity of prey at these habitats. We infer that food chain length and trophic position of fish assemblages were lower in backwater habitats in the summer mainly because of the use of alternative food sources in these habitats. 4. A greater number of conspecifics exhibited significant among‐habitat variation in trophic position during the summer, indicating that low river stages can constrain fish movements in the Upper Mississippi River. 5. Results of this study should provide a better understanding of the fundamental structure of large river ecosystems and an improved basis for river rehabilitation and management through knowledge of the importance of lateral complexity in rivers.     

Differential responses of production and respiration to temperature and moisture drive the carbon balance across a climatic gradient in New Mexico

Southwestern North America faces an imminent transition to a warmer, more arid climate, and it is critical to understand how these changes will affect the carbon balance of southwest ecosystems. In order to test our hypothesis that differential responses of production and respiration to temperature and moisture shape the carbon balance across a range of spatio‐temporal scales, we quantified net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of CO₂ and carbon storage across the New Mexico Elevational Gradient, which consists of six eddy‐covariance sites representing biomes ranging from desert to subalpine conifer forest. Within sites, hotter and drier conditions were associated with an increasing advantage of respiration relative to production such that daily carbon uptake peaked at intermediate temperatures – with carbon release often occurring on the hottest days – and increased with soil moisture. Across sites, biotic adaptations modified but did not override the dominant effects of climate. Carbon uptake increased with decreasing temperature and increasing precipitation across the elevational gradient; NEE ranged from a source of ～30 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the desert grassland to a sink of ～350 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the subalpine conifer forest. Total aboveground carbon storage increased dramatically with elevation, ranging from 186 g C m^?2 in the desert grassland to 26 600 g C m^?2 in the subalpine conifer forest. These results make sense in the context of global patterns in NEE and biomass storage, and support that increasing temperature and decreasing moisture shift the carbon balance of ecosystems in favor of respiration, such that the potential for ecosystems to sequester and store carbon is reduced under hot and/or dry conditions. This implies that projected climate change will trigger a substantial net release of carbon in these New Mexico ecosystems (～3 Gt CO₂ statewide by the end of the century), thereby acting as a positive feedback to climate change.     

Efficient computation of subset selection probabilities with application to Cox regression

An efficient method is presented to compute the probabilityof selection of a specified subset from the set of all subsetsof a fixed size where the subsets are taken from a populationwhose units have varying individual probabilities of selection.The problem is motivated by the computation of the exact marginallikelihood for the Cox proportional hazards model.