Evaluating the effectiveness of conservation site networks under climate change: accounting for uncertainty

We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as ‘extremely likely’ for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many ‘losers’ as ‘winners’. However, for no species was suitable climate ‘extremely likely’ to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35–69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as ‘extremely likely’ to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation.     

Variability in host plant resistance of Sorghum to Striga Hermonthica infestation in West Africa

Fourteen elite sorghum lines were evaluated for their resistance to Striga hermonthica at three locations in Nigeria and Mali. Results showed that many of the lines especially MALISOR 84-1, SAMSORG 41, 97-SB-F5DT-64 (Keninkédié) and the check SRN 39 remained resistant to Striga in all locations with low emerged Striga counts, while SAMSORG 14 had the highest Striga infestation in all locations. Considerable variation in reaction to Striga infestation was observed on Séguètana, 97-SB-F5DT-63 (Wasa), 97-SB-F5DT-65, CMDT 38, CMDT 39 and CMDT 45 which were susceptible to Striga at Samaru, Nigeria but were resistant to Striga at both locations in Mali. Based on low Striga resistance and high grain yield, lines MALISOR 84-1, SAMSORG 41, 97-SB-F5DT-64, 97-SB-F5DT-65, CMDT 39 and SAMSORT 14 have been nominated for wider evaluation across more West African countries.     

Reed warblers guard against cuckoos and cuckoldry

Previous studies have shown that reed warblers, Acrocephalus scirpaceus, are more likely to reject a cuckoo, Cuculus canorus, egg if they have seen a cuckoo at their nest. This suggests that they would benefit from watching out for cuckoos. We tested whether presentations of a cuckoo mount near the nest (to simulate nest inspection) led to increased nest attendance by the warblers. Cuckoo presentations at completed nests before laying, when males guarded their females closely, led to desertion at 40% of nests before any eggs were laid (there were no desertions after presentations of a jay,Garrulus glandarius , a nest predator). In the remaining cases, there was no effect of the cuckoo on nest attendance before laying began, but a marked increase in male nest attendance (compared with jay and no-presentation controls) on the days the first and second eggs were laid. Cuckoo presentations at the one-egg stage led to the same increase in male nest attendance as did the prelaying presentations. Increased male nest attendance at the one-two-egg stage was not at the expense of mate guarding, because this declined anyway when laying began, and it did not lead to increased paternity loss compared with controls. Overall, 15% of broods had one or two extrapair young (6% of all young extrapair). We conclude that male reed warblers do increase nest guarding in response to cuckoos, but only after their females have begun egg laying, when there are less likely to be costs in lost paternity. Females did not increase nest guarding, perhaps because they need to spend more time foraging during the egg-laying period. Our results suggest that cuckoos should be secretive not only when they lay but also when they monitor host nests beforehand. Copyright 2003 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.      

Two common nonsynonymous paraoxonase 1 (<Emphasis Type="Italic">PON1</Emphasis>) gene polymorphisms and brain astrocytoma and meningioma

Background  

Human serum paraoxonase 1 (PON1) plays a major role in the metabolism of several organophosphorus compounds. The enzyme is encoded by the polymorphic gene PON1, located on chromosome 7q21.3. Aiming to identify genetic variations related to the risk of developing brain tumors, we investigated the putative association between common nonsynonymous PON1 polymorphisms and the risk of developing astrocytoma and meningioma.     

Long-term effects of graduated compression stockings on cardiorespiratory performance

The use of graduated compression stockings (GCS) in sport has been increasing in the last years due to their potential positive effects for athletes. However, there is little evidence to support whether these types of garments actually improve cardiorespiratory performance. The aim of this study was to examine the cardiorespiratory responses of GCS during running after three weeks of regular use. Twenty recreational runners performed three tests on different days: test 1) – a 5-min maximal effort run in order to determine the participants’ maximal aerobic speed; and tests 2) and 3) – a fatigue running test of 30 minutes at 80% of their maximal aerobic speed with either GCS or PLACEBO stockings at random. Cardiorespiratory parameters (minute ventilation, heart rate, relative oxygen consumption, relative carbon dioxide production, ventilatory equivalents for oxygen and carbon dioxide, and oxygen pulse) were measured. Before each test in the laboratory, the participants trained with the randomly assigned stockings (GCS or PLACEBO) for three weeks. No significant differences between GCS and PLACEBO were found in any of the cardiorespiratory parameters. In conclusion, the present study provides evidence that running with GCS for three weeks does not influence cardiorespiratory parameters in recreational runners.     

Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds

Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives.     

Global Patterns and Drivers of Avian Extinctions at the Species and Subspecies Level

Birds have long fascinated scientists and travellers, so their distribution and abundance through time have been better documented than those of other organisms. Many bird species are known to have gone extinct, but information on subspecies extinctions has never been synthesised comprehensively. We reviewed the timing, spatial patterns, trends and causes of avian extinctions on a global scale, identifying 279 ultrataxa (141 monotypic species and 138 subspecies of polytypic species) that have gone extinct since 1500. Species extinctions peaked in the early 20^th century, then fell until the mid 20^th century, and have subsequently accelerated. However, extinctions of ultrataxa peaked in the second half of the 20^th century. This trend reflects a consistent decline in the rate of extinctions on islands since the beginning of the 20^th century, but an acceleration in the extinction rate on continents. Most losses (78.7% of species and 63.0% of subspecies) occurred on oceanic islands. Geographic foci of extinctions include the Hawaiian Islands (36 taxa), mainland Australia and islands (29 taxa), the Mascarene Islands (27 taxa), New Zealand (22 taxa) and French Polynesia (19 taxa). The major proximate drivers of extinction for both species and subspecies are invasive alien species (58.2% and 50.7% of species and subspecies, respectively), hunting (52.4% and 18.8%) and agriculture, including non-timber crops and livestock farming (14.9% and 31.9%). In general, the distribution and drivers of subspecific extinctions are similar to those for species extinctions. However, our finding that, when subspecies are considered, the extinction rate has accelerated in recent decades is both novel and alarming.     

The Long-Term Health Consequences of Child Physical Abuse,Emotional Abuse,and Neglect: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes.

Methods and Findings

A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships.

Conclusions

This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change

Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10 000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain.