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1.
Robert Bagchi Mike Crosby Brian Huntley David G. Hole Stuart H. M. Butchart Yvonne Collingham Mohit Kalra Jagadish Rajkumar Asad Rahmani Mitra Pandey Hum Gurung Le Trong Trai Nguyen Van Quang Stephen G. Willis 《Global Change Biology》2013,19(4):1236-1248
We forecasted potential impacts of climate change on the ability of a network of key sites for bird conservation (Important Bird Areas; IBAs) to provide suitable climate for 370 bird species of current conservation concern in two Asian biodiversity hotspots: the Eastern Himalaya and Lower Mekong. Comparable studies have largely not accounted for uncertainty, which may lead to inappropriate conclusions. We quantified the contribution of four sources of variation (choice of general circulation models, emission scenarios and species distribution modelling methods and variation in species distribution data) to uncertainty in forecasts and tested if our projections were robust to these uncertainties. Declines in the availability of suitable climate within the IBA network by 2100 were forecast as ‘extremely likely’ for 45% of species, whereas increases were projected for only 2%. Thus, we predict almost 24 times as many ‘losers’ as ‘winners’. However, for no species was suitable climate ‘extremely likely’ to be completely lost from the network. Considerable turnover (median = 43%, 95% CI = 35–69%) in species compositions of most IBAs were projected by 2100. Climatic conditions in 47% of IBAs were projected as ‘extremely likely’ to become suitable for fewer priority species. However, no IBA was forecast to become suitable for more species. Variation among General Circulation Models and Species Distribution Models contributed most to uncertainty among forecasts. This uncertainty precluded firm conclusions for 53% of species and IBAs because 95% confidence intervals included projections of no change. Considering this uncertainty, however, allows robust recommendations concerning the remaining species and IBAs. Overall, while the IBA network will continue to sustain bird conservation, climate change will modify which species each site will be suitable for. Thus, adaptive management of the network, including modified site conservation strategies and facilitating species' movement among sites, is critical to ensure effective future conservation. 相似文献
2.
Previous studies have shown that reed warblers, Acrocephalus scirpaceus, are more likely to reject a cuckoo, Cuculus canorus, egg if they have seen a cuckoo at their nest. This suggests that they would benefit from watching out for cuckoos. We tested whether presentations of a cuckoo mount near the nest (to simulate nest inspection) led to increased nest attendance by the warblers. Cuckoo presentations at completed nests before laying, when males guarded their females closely, led to desertion at 40% of nests before any eggs were laid (there were no desertions after presentations of a jay,Garrulus glandarius , a nest predator). In the remaining cases, there was no effect of the cuckoo on nest attendance before laying began, but a marked increase in male nest attendance (compared with jay and no-presentation controls) on the days the first and second eggs were laid. Cuckoo presentations at the one-egg stage led to the same increase in male nest attendance as did the prelaying presentations. Increased male nest attendance at the one-two-egg stage was not at the expense of mate guarding, because this declined anyway when laying began, and it did not lead to increased paternity loss compared with controls. Overall, 15% of broods had one or two extrapair young (6% of all young extrapair). We conclude that male reed warblers do increase nest guarding in response to cuckoos, but only after their females have begun egg laying, when there are less likely to be costs in lost paternity. Females did not increase nest guarding, perhaps because they need to spend more time foraging during the egg-laying period. Our results suggest that cuckoos should be secretive not only when they lay but also when they monitor host nests beforehand. Copyright 2003 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour. Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved. 相似文献
3.
Identifying priority areas for conservation: a global assessment for forest-dependent birds 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Limited resources are available to address the world's growing environmental problems, requiring conservationists to identify priority sites for action. Using new distribution maps for all of the world's forest-dependent birds (60.6% of all bird species), we quantify the contribution of remaining forest to conserving global avian biodiversity. For each of the world's partly or wholly forested 5-km cells, we estimated an impact score of its contribution to the distribution of all the forest bird species estimated to occur within it, and so is proportional to the impact on the conservation status of the world's forest-dependent birds were the forest it contains lost. The distribution of scores was highly skewed, a very small proportion of cells having scores several orders of magnitude above the global mean. Ecoregions containing the highest values of this score included relatively species-poor islands such as Hawaii and Palau, the relatively species-rich islands of Indonesia and the Philippines, and the megadiverse Atlantic Forests and northern Andes of South America. Ecoregions with high impact scores and high deforestation rates (2000-2005) included montane forests in Cameroon and the Eastern Arc of Tanzania, although deforestation data were not available for all ecoregions. Ecoregions with high impact scores, high rates of recent deforestation and low coverage by the protected area network included Indonesia's Seram rain forests and the moist forests of Trinidad and Tobago. Key sites in these ecoregions represent some of the most urgent priorities for expansion of the global protected areas network to meet Convention on Biological Diversity targets to increase the proportion of land formally protected to 17% by 2020. Areas with high impact scores, rapid deforestation, low protection and high carbon storage values may represent significant opportunities for both biodiversity conservation and climate change mitigation, for example through Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation (REDD+) initiatives. 相似文献
4.
Birds have long fascinated scientists and travellers, so their distribution and abundance through time have been better documented than those of other organisms. Many bird species are known to have gone extinct, but information on subspecies extinctions has never been synthesised comprehensively. We reviewed the timing, spatial patterns, trends and causes of avian extinctions on a global scale, identifying 279 ultrataxa (141 monotypic species and 138 subspecies of polytypic species) that have gone extinct since 1500. Species extinctions peaked in the early 20th century, then fell until the mid 20th century, and have subsequently accelerated. However, extinctions of ultrataxa peaked in the second half of the 20th century. This trend reflects a consistent decline in the rate of extinctions on islands since the beginning of the 20th century, but an acceleration in the extinction rate on continents. Most losses (78.7% of species and 63.0% of subspecies) occurred on oceanic islands. Geographic foci of extinctions include the Hawaiian Islands (36 taxa), mainland Australia and islands (29 taxa), the Mascarene Islands (27 taxa), New Zealand (22 taxa) and French Polynesia (19 taxa). The major proximate drivers of extinction for both species and subspecies are invasive alien species (58.2% and 50.7% of species and subspecies, respectively), hunting (52.4% and 18.8%) and agriculture, including non-timber crops and livestock farming (14.9% and 31.9%). In general, the distribution and drivers of subspecific extinctions are similar to those for species extinctions. However, our finding that, when subspecies are considered, the extinction rate has accelerated in recent decades is both novel and alarming. 相似文献
5.
Rosana E. Norman Munkhtsetseg Byambaa Rumna De Alexander Butchart James Scott Theo Vos 《PLoS medicine》2012,9(11)
Background
Child sexual abuse is considered a modifiable risk factor for mental disorders across the life course. However the long-term consequences of other forms of child maltreatment have not yet been systematically examined. The aim of this study was to summarise the evidence relating to the possible relationship between child physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect, and subsequent mental and physical health outcomes.Methods and Findings
A systematic review was conducted using the Medline, EMBASE, and PsycINFO electronic databases up to 26 June 2012. Published cohort, cross-sectional, and case-control studies that examined non-sexual child maltreatment as a risk factor for loss of health were included. All meta-analyses were based on quality-effects models. Out of 285 articles assessed for eligibility, 124 studies satisfied the pre-determined inclusion criteria for meta-analysis. Statistically significant associations were observed between physical abuse, emotional abuse, and neglect and depressive disorders (physical abuse [odds ratio (OR) = 1.54; 95% CI 1.16–2.04], emotional abuse [OR = 3.06; 95% CI 2.43–3.85], and neglect [OR = 2.11; 95% CI 1.61–2.77]); drug use (physical abuse [OR = 1.92; 95% CI 1.67–2.20], emotional abuse [OR = 1.41; 95% CI 1.11–1.79], and neglect [OR = 1.36; 95% CI 1.21–1.54]); suicide attempts (physical abuse [OR = 3.40; 95% CI 2.17–5.32], emotional abuse [OR = 3.37; 95% CI 2.44–4.67], and neglect [OR = 1.95; 95% CI 1.13–3.37]); and sexually transmitted infections and risky sexual behaviour (physical abuse [OR = 1.78; 95% CI 1.50–2.10], emotional abuse [OR = 1.75; 95% CI 1.49–2.04], and neglect [OR = 1.57; 95% CI 1.39–1.78]). Evidence for causality was assessed using Bradford Hill criteria. While suggestive evidence exists for a relationship between maltreatment and chronic diseases and lifestyle risk factors, more research is required to confirm these relationships.Conclusions
This overview of the evidence suggests a causal relationship between non-sexual child maltreatment and a range of mental disorders, drug use, suicide attempts, sexually transmitted infections, and risky sexual behaviour. All forms of child maltreatment should be considered important risks to health with a sizeable impact on major contributors to the burden of disease in all parts of the world. The awareness of the serious long-term consequences of child maltreatment should encourage better identification of those at risk and the development of effective interventions to protect children from violence. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary 相似文献6.
The coincidence of climatic and species rarity: high risk to small-range species from climate change 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
Ohlemüller R Anderson BJ Araújo MB Butchart SH Kudrna O Ridgely RS Thomas CD 《Biology letters》2008,4(5):568-572
Why do areas with high numbers of small-range species occur where they do? We found that, for butterfly and plant species in Europe, and for bird species in the Western Hemisphere, such areas coincide with regions that have rare climates, and are higher and colder areas than surrounding regions. Species with small range sizes also tend to occur in climatically diverse regions, where species are likely to have been buffered from extinction in the past. We suggest that the centres of high small-range species richness we examined predominantly represent interglacial relict areas where cold-adapted species have been able to survive unusually warm periods in the last ca 10 000 years. We show that the rare climates that occur in current centres of species rarity will shrink disproportionately under future climate change, potentially leading to high vulnerability for many of the species they contain. 相似文献
7.
Simon N. Stuart Thomas M. Brooks Stuart H. M. Butchart Wendy Elliott Melanie Heath Dieter Hoffmann Leslie Honey Irina Kostadinova Penny Langhammer Olivier Langrand Susan Lieberman Daniel Marnewick Daniela Raik Jon Paul Rodríguez Wes Sechrest Jane Smart Sheila Vergara Stephen Woodley Alberto Yanosky Mark Zimsky 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2018,27(3):791-793
8.
Jennifer C. Merriman Hum Gurung Shalu Adhikari Stuart H. M. Butchart Top B. Khatri Ravi S. Pandit Ashok K. Ram David H. L. Thomas Ishana Thapa 《Wetlands Ecology and Management》2018,26(4):491-507
Wetlands are important for biodiversity and are critical for human livelihoods, providing ecosystem services such as clean water, food and global climate regulation. Many wetlands are threatened by land-use conversion, but creating protected areas to conserve them can benefit both biodiversity and people. However, protected areas can also have socio-economic costs for local communities. At Koshi Tappu Wildlife Reserve in Nepal, there has been historical conflict over the creation of the reserve. In light of a recent proposal to expand the protected area, we explored the use of a rapid ecosystem service assessment tool (TESSA) to assess the impact of the reserve on some of the key ecosystem services the site provides. Based on the ecosystem services assessed we estimated that the economic value of KTWR as a protected area is $350,000 y?1 ($20 ha?1y?1) less than the value of the wetland in an unprotected state. However, this difference is relatively small and is affected by the limitations of the approach and sensitivity of the values to market prices and the assumptions made, so we cannot draw clear conclusions on the overall impact of the reserve in relation to local livelihoods. However, we found TESSA to be a useful tool for engaging with the stakeholder community and for highlighting the potential impacts that land use decisions can have on key ecosystem services. In the context of informing the potential expansion of the reserve, it is clear that further intensive socio-economic assessment of the potential costs and benefits is necessary. 相似文献
9.
George Olah Stuart H. M. Butchart Andy Symes Iliana Medina Guzmán Ross Cunningham Donald J. Brightsmith Robert Heinsohn 《Biodiversity and Conservation》2016,25(2):205-223
Parrots (Psittaciformes) are among the most threatened bird orders with 28 % (111 of 398) of extant species classified as threatened under IUCN criteria. We confirmed that parrots have a lower Red List Index (higher aggregate extinction risk) than other comparable bird groups, and modeled the factors associated with extinction risk. Our analyses included intrinsic biological, life history and ecological attributes, external anthropogenic threats, and socio-economic variables associated with the countries where the parrot species occur, while we controlled for phylogenetic dependence among species. We found that the likelihood of parrot species being classified as threatened was less for species with larger historical distribution size, but was greater for species with high forest dependency, large body size, long generation time, and greater proportion of the human population living in urban areas in the countries encompassing the parrots’ home ranges. The severity of extinction risk (from vulnerable to critically endangered) was positively related to the per capita gross domestic product (GDP) of the countries of occurrence, endemism to a single country, and lower for species used as pets. A disproportionate number of 16 extinct parrot species were endemic to islands and single countries, and were large bodied, habitat specialists. Agriculture, hunting, trapping, and logging are the most frequent threats to parrots worldwide, with variation in importance among regions. We use multiple methods to rank countries with disproportionately high numbers of threatened parrot species. Our results promote understanding of global and regional factors associated with endangerment in this highly threatened taxonomic group, and will enhance the prioritization of conservation actions. 相似文献
10.