Predicting dengue incidence leveraging internet-based data sources. A case study in 20 cities in Brazil

The dengue virus affects millions of people every year worldwide, causing large epidemic outbreaks that disrupt people’s lives and severely strain healthcare systems. In the absence of a reliable vaccine against dengue or an effective treatment to manage the illness in humans, most efforts to combat dengue infections have focused on preventing its vectors, mainly the Aedes aegypti mosquito, from flourishing across the world. These mosquito-control strategies need reliable disease activity surveillance systems to be deployed. Despite significant efforts to estimate dengue incidence using a variety of data sources and methods, little work has been done to understand the relative contribution of the different data sources to improved prediction. Additionally, scholarship on the topic had initially focused on prediction systems at the national- and state-levels, and much remains to be done at the finer spatial resolutions at which health policy interventions often occur. We develop a methodological framework to assess and compare dengue incidence estimates at the city level, and evaluate the performance of a collection of models on 20 different cities in Brazil. The data sources we use towards this end are weekly incidence counts from prior years (seasonal autoregressive terms), weekly-aggregated weather variables, and real-time internet search data. We find that both random forest-based models and LASSO regression-based models effectively leverage these multiple data sources to produce accurate predictions, and that while the performance between them is comparable on average, the former method produces fewer extreme outliers, and can thus be considered more robust. For real-time predictions that assume long delays (6–8 weeks) in the availability of epidemiological data, we find that real-time internet search data are the strongest predictors of dengue incidence, whereas for predictions that assume short delays (1–3 weeks), in which the error rate is halved (as measured by relative RMSE), short-term and seasonal autocorrelation are the dominant predictors. Despite the difficulties inherent to city-level prediction, our framework achieves meaningful and actionable estimates across cities with different demographic, geographic and epidemic characteristics.     

Vaccination Drives Changes in Metabolic and Virulence Profiles of Streptococcus pneumoniae

The bacterial pathogen, Streptococcus pneumoniae (the pneumococcus), is a leading cause of life-threatening illness and death worldwide. Available conjugate vaccines target only a small subset (up to 13) of >90 known capsular serotypes of S. pneumoniae and, since their introduction, increases in non-vaccine serotypes have been recorded in several countries: a phenomenon termed Vaccine Induced Serotype Replacement (VISR). Here, using a combination of mathematical modelling and whole genome analysis, we show that targeting particular serotypes through vaccination can also cause their metabolic and virulence-associated components to transfer through recombination to non-vaccine serotypes: a phenomenon we term Vaccine-Induced Metabolic Shift (VIMS). Our results provide a novel explanation for changes observed in the population structure of the pneumococcus following vaccination, and have important implications for strain-targeted vaccination in a range of infectious disease systems.     

Targeting Human Transmission Biology for Malaria Elimination

Malaria remains one of the leading causes of death worldwide, despite decades of public health efforts. The recent commitment by many endemic countries to eliminate malaria marks a shift away from programs aimed at controlling disease burden towards one that emphasizes reducing transmission of the most virulent human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum. Gametocytes, the only developmental stage of malaria parasites able to infect mosquitoes, have remained understudied, as they occur in low numbers, do not cause disease, and are difficult to detect in vivo by conventional methods. Here, we review the transmission biology of P. falciparum gametocytes, featuring important recent discoveries of genes affecting parasite commitment to gametocyte formation, microvesicles enabling parasites to communicate with each other, and the anatomical site where immature gametocytes develop. We propose potential parasite targets for future intervention and highlight remaining knowledge gaps.     

Cenicriviroc,a Novel CCR5 (R5) and CCR2 Antagonist,Shows In Vitro Activity against R5 Tropic HIV-2 Clinical Isolates

Background

Maraviroc activity against HIV-2, a virus naturally resistant to different HIV-1 antiretroviral drugs, has been recently demonstrated. The aim of this study was to assess HIV-2 susceptibility to cenicriviroc, a novel, once-daily, dual CCR5 and CCR2 antagonist that has completed Phase 2b development in HIV-1 infection.

Methods

Cenicriviroc phenotypic activity has been tested using a PBMC phenotypic susceptibility assay against four R5-, one X4- and one dual-tropic HIV-2 clinical primary isolates. All isolates were obtained by co-cultivation of PHA-activated PBMC from distinct HIV-2-infected CCR5-antagonist-naïve patients included in the French HIV-2 cohort and were previously tested for maraviroc susceptibility using the same protocol. HIV-2 tropism was determined by phenotypic assay using Ghost(3) cell lines.

Results

Regarding the 4 R5 HIV-2 clinical isolates tested, effective concentration 50% EC₅₀ for cenicriviroc were 0.03, 0.33, 0.45 and 0.98 nM, similar to those observed with maraviroc: 1.13, 0.58, 0.48 and 0.68 nM, respectively. Maximum percentages of inhibition (MPI) of cenicriviroc were 94, 94, 93 and 98%, similar to those observed with maraviroc (93, 90, 82, 100%, respectively). The dual- and X4-tropic HIV-2 strains were resistant to cenicriviroc with EC50 >1000 nM and MPI at 33% and 4%, respectively.

Conclusions

In this first study assessing HIV-2 susceptibility to cenicriviroc, we observed an in vitro activity against HIV-2 R5-tropic strains similar to that observed with maraviroc. Thus, cenicriviroc may offer a once-daily treatment opportunity in the limited therapeutic arsenal for HIV-2. Clinical studies are warranted.     

Host community structure and the maintenance of pathogen diversity

Community structure has been widely identified as a feature of many real-world networks. It has been shown that the antigenic diversity of a pathogen population can be significantly affected by the contact network of its hosts; however, the effects of community structure have not yet been explored. Here, we examine the congruence between patterns of antigenic diversity in pathogen populations in neighbouring communities, using both a deterministic metapopulation model and individual-based formulations. We show that the spatial differentiation of the pathogen population can only be maintained at levels of coupling far lower than that necessary for the host populations to remain distinct. Therefore, identifiable community structure in host networks may not reflect differentiation of the processes occurring upon them and, conversely, a lack of genetic differentiation between pathogens from different host communities may not reflect strong mixing between them.     

Similar hypotensive responses to resistance exercise with and without blood flow restriction

Low intensity resistance exercise (RE) with blood flow restriction (BFR) has gained attention in the literature due to the beneficial effects on functional and morphological variables, similar to those observed during traditional RE without BFR, while the effects of BFR on post-exercise hypotension remain unclear. The aim of the present study was to compare the blood pressure (BP) response of trained normotensive individuals to RE with and without BFR. In this cross-over randomized trial, eight male subjects (23.8 ± 4 years, 74 ± 3 kg, 174 ± 4 cm) completed two exercise protocols: traditional RE (3 x 10 repetitions at 70% one-repetition maximum [1-RM]) and low intensity RE (3 x 15 repetitions at 20% 1-RM) with BFR. Blood pressure measurements were performed after 15 min of seated rest (0), immediately after and 10 min, 20 min, 30 min, 40 min, 50 min and 60 min after the experimental sessions. Similar hypotensive effects for systolic BP (SBP) were observed for both protocols (P < 0.05) after exercise, with no differences between groups (P > 0.05) and no statistically significant difference for diastolic BP (P > 0.05). These results suggest that in normotensive trained individuals, both traditional RE and RE with BFR induce hypotension for SBP, which is important to prevent cardiovascular disturbances.     

Recent HIV-1 infection contributes to the viral diffusion over the French territory with a recent increasing frequency

Objective

To analyse the contribution of primary human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection (PHI) to the French viral epidemic.

Methods

HIV-1 pol sequences included 987 PHI from the French ANRS PRIMO cohort between 1999 and 2010 and were analysed using a population-based phylogenetic approach. Clinical features, risk factors, sexual behaviour and drug resistance for clustered and nonclustered transmission events were ascertained.

Results

Viruses from 125 (12.7%) of PHI cosegregated into 56 transmission chains, with increasing frequency during the last years (10.2% before 2006 versus 15.2% of clusters in 2006–2010, p = 0.02). The mean number of patients per cluster was 2.44. Compared to unique PHI, clusters involved more often men, infected through homosexual intercourse, of young age, with a high number of casual sexual partnerships and frequent previous HIV serological tests. Resistant strains were found in 16.0% and 11.1% of clusters and unique PHI, respectively (p = 0.11). Overall, 34% (n = 19) clusters included patients followed in French regions far apart, involving 13 clusters with at least one Parisian patient.

Conclusions

PHIs are a significant source of onward transmission, especially in the MSM population. Recently infected people contribute to the spread of the viral epidemic throughout the French territory. Survey of transmitted drug resistance and behavioural characteristics of patients involved into clustered PHI may help to guide prevention and treatment interventions.     

Evolution of the multi-domain structures of virulence genes in the human malaria parasite, Plasmodium falciparum

The var gene family of Plasmodium falciparum encodes the immunodominant variant surface antigens PfEMP1. These highly polymorphic proteins are important virulence factors that mediate cytoadhesion to a variety of host tissues, causing sequestration of parasitized red blood cells in vital organs, including the brain or placenta. Acquisition of variant-specific antibodies correlates with protection against severe malarial infections; however, understanding the relationship between gene expression and infection outcome is complicated by the modular genetic architectures of var genes that encode varying numbers of antigenic domains with differential binding specificities. By analyzing the domain architectures of fully sequenced var gene repertoires we reveal a significant, non-random association between the number of domains comprising a var gene and their sequence conservation. As such, var genes can be grouped into those that are short and diverse and genes that are long and conserved, suggesting gene length as an important characteristic in the classification of var genes. We then use an evolutionary framework to demonstrate how the same evolutionary forces acting on the level of an individual gene may have also shaped the parasite's gene repertoire. The observed associations between sequence conservation, gene architecture and repertoire structure can thus be explained by a trade-off between optimizing within-host fitness and minimizing between-host immune selection pressure. Our results demonstrate how simple evolutionary mechanisms can explain var gene structuring on multiple levels and have important implications for understanding the multifaceted epidemiology of P. falciparum malaria.     

Muscular Weakness in Individuals with HIV Associated with a Disorganization of the Cortico-Spinal Tract: A Multi-Modal MRI Investigation

Motor impairment is highly prevalent in HIV-infected patients. Here, we assess associations between peripheral muscular deficits as evaluated by the 5 sit-to-stand test (5STS) and structural integrity of the motor system at a central level. Eighty-six HIV-infected patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy and with no major cerebral events, underwent an MRI scan and the 5STS. Out of 86 participants, forty presented a score greater than two standard deviations above mean normative scores calculated for the 5STS and were therefore considered as motor-impaired. MRI-structural cerebral parameters were compared to the unimpaired participants. Fractional Anisotropy (FA), Axial Diffusivity (AD) and Radial Diffusivity (RD), reflecting microstructural integrity, were extracted from Diffusion-Tensor MRI. Global and regional cerebral volumes or thicknesses were extracted from 3D-T1 morphological MRI. Whereas the two groups did not differ for any HIV variables, voxel-wise analysis revealed that motor-impaired participants present low FA values in various cortico-motor tracts and low AD in left cortico-spinal tract. However, they did not present reduced volumes or thicknesses of the precentral cortices compared to unimpaired participants. The absence of alterations in cortical regions holding motor-neurons might argue against neurodegenerative process as an explanation of White Matter (WM) disorganization.     

Acute toxicity effects of ibuprofen on behaviour and haematological parameters of African catfish Clarias gariepinus (Burchell, 1822)

Indiscriminate discharge of pharmaceutical waste into the aquatic ecosystem may pose serious health challenges to aquatic biota. The effect of acute exposure to ibuprofen was evaluated using changes in behaviour and haematological parameters under static bio-assay method in Clarias gariepinus. Test specimens were exposed to acute concentrations of ibuprofen (0.28, 0.33, 0.38, 0.43 and 0.48 mg l^?1) for 24, 48, 72 and 96 h durations respectively. Behavioural and phenotypic changes were observed in surviving fish. There were significant (p < 0.05) concentration and duration-dependent increases in erythrocyte (RBC), haemoglobin (Hb), pack cell volume (PCV) and leukocytes (WBC) in treated fish compared to the control. Insignificant decreases (p > 0.05) in mean corpuscular volume (MCV), mean corpuscular haemoglobin (MCH) and mean corpuscular haemoglobin concentration (MCHC) were observed in treated fish compared to the control. Ibuprofen elicited dose and duration- dependent decrease in neutrophil counts with the decreases being significant (p < 0.05) in the higher doses of 0.43 and 0.48 mg l^?1. Ibuprofen did not elicit any significant changes in monocytes, basophils and eosinophils. Changes observed in this study showed that ibuprofen negatively affected the health of the fish and we recommend that discharge of ibuprofen into the aquatic environment should be monitored and controlled.