A simulation approach for power calculation in large cohort studies based on multistate models

Realistic power calculations for large cohort studies and nested case control studies are essential for successfully answering important and complex research questions in epidemiology and clinical medicine. For this, we provide a methodical framework for general realistic power calculations via simulations that we put into practice by means of an R‐based template. We consider staggered recruitment and individual hazard rates, competing risks, interaction effects, and the misclassification of covariates. The study cohort is assembled with respect to given age‐, gender‐, and community distributions. Nested case‐control analyses with a varying number of controls enable comparisons of power with a full cohort analysis. Time‐to‐event generation under competing risks, including delayed study‐entry times, is realized on the basis of a six‐state Markov model. Incidence rates, prevalence of risk factors and prefixed hazard ratios allow for the assignment of age‐dependent transition rates given in the form of Cox models. These provide the basis for a central simulation‐algorithm, which is used for the generation of sample paths of the underlying time‐inhomogeneous Markov processes. With the inclusion of frailty terms into the Cox models the Markov property is specifically biased. An “individual Markov process given frailty” creates some unobserved heterogeneity between individuals. Different left‐truncation‐ and right‐censoring patterns call for the use of Cox models for data analysis. p‐values are recorded over repeated simulation runs to allow for the desired power calculations. For illustration, we consider scenarios with a “testing” character as well as realistic scenarios. This enables the validation of a correct implementation of theoretical concepts and concrete sample size recommendations against an actual epidemiological background, here given with possible substudy designs within the German National Cohort.     

Sulfide induces phosphate release from polyphosphate in cultures of a marine Beggiatoa strain

Sulfur bacteria such as Beggiatoa or Thiomargarita have a particularly high capacity for storage because of their large size. In addition to sulfur and nitrate, these bacteria also store phosphorus in the form of polyphosphate. Thiomargarita namibiensis has been shown to release phosphate from internally stored polyphosphate in pulses creating steep peaks of phosphate in the sediment and thereby inducing the precipitation of phosphorus-rich minerals. Large sulfur bacteria populate sediments at the sites of recent phosphorite formation and are found as fossils in ancient phosphorite deposits. Therefore, it can be assumed that this physiology contributes to the removal of bioavailable phosphorus from the marine system and thus is important for the global phosphorus cycle. We investigated under defined laboratory conditions which parameters stimulate the decomposition of polyphosphate and the release of phosphate in a marine Beggiatoa strain. Initially, we tested phosphate release in response to anoxia and high concentrations of acetate, because acetate is described as the relevant stimulus for phosphate release in activated sludge. To our surprise, the Beggiatoa strain did not release phosphate in response to this treatment. Instead, we could clearly show that increasing sulfide concentrations and anoxia resulted in a decomposition of polyphosphate. This physiological reaction is a yet unknown mode of bacterial polyphosphate usage and provides a new explanation for high phosphate concentrations in sulfidic marine sediments.     

Enhancer of Polycomb is a suppressor of position-effect variegation in Drosophila melanogaster.

Polycomb group (PcG) genes of Drosophila are negative regulators of homeotic gene expression required for maintenance of determination. Sequence similarity between Polycomb and Su(var)205 led to the suggestion that PcG genes and modifiers of position-effect variegation (PEV) might function analogously in the establishment of chromatin structure. If PcG proteins participate directly in the same process that leads to PEV, PcG mutations should suppress PEV. We show that mutations in E(Pc), an unusual member of the PcG, suppress PEV of four variegating rearrangements: In(l)wm4, B(SV), T(2;3)Sb(V) and In(2R)bw(VDe2). Using reversion of a Pelement insertion, deficiency mapping, and recombination mapping as criteria, homeotic effects and suppression of PEV associated with E(Pc) co-map. Asx is an enhancer of PEV, whereas nine other PcG loci do not affect PEV. These results support the conclusion that there are fewer similarities between PcG genes and modifiers of PEV than previously supposed. However, E(Pc) appears to be an important link between the two groups. We discuss why Asx might act as an enhancer of PEV.     

Electrolocation in the presence of jamming signals: behavior

Electrolocation behavior of Apteronotus leptorhynchus was studied by monitoring the animal's ability to maintain orientation to a variety of moving electrolocation targets. The primary goal of this study was to determine the relative effectiveness of various types of electrical 'jamming signals' in disrupting electrolocation performance. 1. Two measures of electrolocation performance were used: The latency between the electrolocation target motion and the fish's following response, and the minimum distance separating the fish from the target during the target movement sequence. Latency increased and minimum fish-target distance decreased as target size was decreased, and when large diameter ceramic targets were used as control stimuli the fish were less able to avoid, and frequently collided with, these 'electrically transparent' objects. 2. Four types of jamming signals were used in attempts to mask the electrosensory input used for electrolocation. Broad-band noise and sinusoidal signals, different in frequency by a few Hz from the animal's personal electric organ discharge (DF stimuli), were used to jam the tuberous electroreceptors. Five Hz and 50 Hz sinusoidal signals were used to jam the low-frequency or ampullary receptor system. Both the noise and the DF stimuli were effective in reducing electrolocation performance, and the threshold intensity for behavior deterioration was about three-fold lower for DF stimuli as compared to the noise. The rate of change of response deterioration as a function of increasing jamming intensity was, however, not different for these two types of stimuli. Neither the 50 Hz nor the 5 Hz jamming signals caused electrolocation deterioration when presented alone. However, 5 Hz jamming, when added to either the noise or DF jamming, did result in significant increments in response deterioration. This suggests that the ampullary receptors can provide supplementary information for electrolocation. 3. Electrolocation performance deterioration was also studied with various difference frequencies between an animal's EOD and the sinusoidal jamming stimulus. Increasing DF results in decreased electrolocation deterioration, but even at the highest DF frequencies used (128 Hz) significant response degradation was observed. 4. The apparent differences in the effectiveness of noise and DF stimulation in reducing electrolocation performance are largely accounted for by the differential effects of the tuberous electroreceptor filter characteristics on these two types of signals.