Ecological Network Indicators of Ecosystem Status and Change in the Baltic Sea

Several marine ecosystems under anthropogenic pressure have experienced shifts from one ecological state to another. In the central Baltic Sea, the regime shift of the 1980s has been associated with food-web reorganization and redirection of energy flow pathways. These long-term dynamics from 1974 to 2006 have been simulated here using a food-web model forced by climate and fishing. Ecological network analysis was performed to calculate indices of ecosystem change. The model replicated the regime shift. The analyses of indicators suggested that the system’s resilience was higher prior to 1988 and lower thereafter. The ecosystem topology also changed from a web-like structure to a linearized food-web.     

Maintained functional diversity in benthic communities in spite of diverging functional identities

Ecological studies based on time‐series often investigate community changes centered on species abundance or biomass but rarely expose the consequential functional aspects underlying such changes. Functional diversity measures have proven to be more accurate predictors for ecosystem functioning than traditional taxonomic approaches and hence gained much attention. There are only limited studies available that analyse the functional implications behind decadal changes of entire communities. We studied zoobenthic communities of two habitats, sheltered and exposed, of a coastal system subject to contrasting changes in community composition over the past four decades. Besides eutrophication and climate‐related impacts, the system has been invaded by a non‐native polycheate Marenzelleria spp., adding altered functional properties to the communities. The functional dispersion (FDis) metric was used as a measure for comparing the functional diversity of the contrasting habitats, with special focus on the role of Marenzelleria for the entire communities. We highlight changes in the functional identity of the communities, expressed as community‐weighted means of trait expression (CWM), using multivariate techniques, and investigate the relationship between taxonomic and functional changes. Despite contrasting community developments in the two habitats, with characteristics traditionally suggesting different environmental quality, we found that the FDis in both habitats remained similar and increased with the introduction of Marenzelleria. Although showing maintained functional diversity across time and space, the functional identity (CWM) of communities changed irrespective of taxonomical differences. Examples include inter alia alterations in palatability proxies, feeding position and sediment transportation types, indicating changed functionality of zoobenthos in coastal systems. We show, when focussing on qualitative functional changes of communities, it is important to evaluate the underlying functional identity, and not only rely on measures of the diversity of functions per se, as the quality indication of expressed functional traits can be concealed when using multi‐functionality approaches.     

Models as tools for understanding past,recent and future changes in large lakes

Large lakes currently exhibit ecosystem responses to environmental changes such as climate and land use changes, nutrient loading, toxic contaminants, hydrological modifications and invasive species. These sources have impacted lake ecosystems over a number of years in various combinations and often in a spatially heterogeneous pattern. At the same time, many different kinds of mathematical models have been developed to help to understand ecosystem processes and improve cost-effective management. Here, the advantages and limitations of models and sources of uncertainty will be discussed. From these considerations and in view of the multiple environmental pressures, the following emerging issues still have to be met in order to improve the understanding of ecosystem function and management of large lakes: (1) the inclusion of thresholds and points-of-no-return; (2) construction of general models to simulate biogeochemical processes for a large number of lakes rather than for individual systems; (3) improvement of the understanding of spatio-temporal variability to quantify biogeochemical fluxes accurately; and (4) inclusion of biogeochemical linkages between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in model approaches to assess the effects of external environmental pressures such as land-use changes. The inclusion of the above-mentioned issues would substantially improve models as tools for the scientific understanding and cost-effective management of large lakes that are subject to multiple environmental pressures in a changing future.     

Regional and local impact on species diversity – from pattern to processes

The impact of regional factors (such as speciation or dispersal) on the species richness in local communities (S_L) has received increasing attention. A prominent method to infer the impact of regional factors is the comparison of species richness in local assemblages (S_L) with the total number of species in the region (S_R). Linear relations between S_R and S_L have been interpreted as an indication of strong regional influence and weak influence of interactions within local communities. We propose that two aspects bias the outcome of such comparisons: (1) the spatial scale of local and regional sampling, and (2) the body size of the organisms. The impact of the local area reflects the scales of ecological interactions, whereas the ratio between local and regional area reflects the inherent moment of autocorrelation. A proposed impact of body size on the relation is based on the high dispersal and high abundance of small organisms. We predict strongest linearity between S_R and S_L for large organisms, for large local areas (less important ecological interactions) and for sampling designs where the local habitat area covers a high proportion of the regional area (more important autocorrelation). We conducted a meta-analysis on 63 relations obtained from the literature. As predicted, the linearity of the relationship between S_L and S_R increased with the proportion of local to regional sampling area. In contrast, neither the body size of the organisms nor the local area itself was significantly related to the relation between S_L and S_R. This indicated that ecological interactions played a minor role in the shape of local to regional richness plots, which instead was mainly influenced by the sampling design. We found that the studies published so far were highly biased towards larger organisms and towards high similarity between the local and regional area. The proposed prevalence of linear relationships may thus be an artefact and plots of S_L to S_R are not a suitable tool with which to infer the strength of local interactions.     

A conceptual model of climate-related effects on lake ecosystems

Climatic variation and change affect the dynamics of organisms and ecosystem processes. Many studies in the past have analyzed and discussed various climate-driven effects on different components of the lake ecosystem. Only a few synthesis papers have been published in this field. In this overview, a conceptual model has been developed to help explain why lakes respond individually to climate. The model consists of two main components, a so-called Landscape Filter comprising the features of geographical position, catchment characteristics and lake morphology, and a so-called Internal Lake Filter, comprising the features of lake history and biotic/abiotic interactions. The application of this conceptual model on published literature findings illustrates the strength in this encompassing perspective. An assessment of current climate research methods is presented with some perspectives given.     

Physical and chemical properties determine zebra mussel invasion success in lakes

To address the question whether the abundance of an invasive species can be explained by physical and chemical properties of the invaded ecosystems, we gathered density data of invasive zebra mussels and the physical and chemical data of ecosystems they invaded. We assembled published data from 55 European and 13 North American lakes and developed a model for zebra mussel density using a generalized additive model (GAM) approach. Our model revealed that the joint effect of surface area, total phosphorus and calcium concentrations explained 62% of the variation in Dreissena density. Our study indicates that large and less productive North American lakes can support larger local populations of zebra mussels. Our results suggest that the proliferation of an exotic species in an area can partially be explained by physical and chemical properties of the recipient environment.     

Confronting Feedbacks of Degraded Marine Ecosystems

In many coastal areas, marine ecosystems have shifted into contrasting states having reduced ecosystem services (hereafter called degraded). Such degraded ecosystems may be slow to revert to their original state due to new ecological feedbacks that reinforce the degraded state. A better understanding of the way human actions influence the strength and direction of feedbacks, how different feedbacks could interact, and at what scales they operate, may be necessary in some cases for successful management of marine ecosystems. Here we synthesize interactions of critical feedbacks of the degraded states from six globally distinct biomes: coral reefs, kelp forests, seagrass beds, shallow soft sediments, oyster reefs, and coastal pelagic food webs. We explore to what extent current management captures these feedbacks and propose strategies for how and when (that is, windows of opportunity) to influence feedbacks in ways to break the resilience of the degraded ecosystem states. We conclude by proposing some challenges for future research that could improve our understanding of these issues and emphasize that management of degraded marine states will require a broad social–ecological approach to succeed.     

Climate and fishing steer ecosystem regeneration to uncertain economic futures

Overfishing of large predatory fish populations has resulted in lasting restructurings of entire marine food webs worldwide, with serious socio-economic consequences. Fortunately, some degraded ecosystems show signs of recovery. A key challenge for ecosystem management is to anticipate the degree to which recovery is possible. By applying a statistical food-web model, using the Baltic Sea as a case study, we show that under current temperature and salinity conditions, complete recovery of this heavily altered ecosystem will be impossible. Instead, the ecosystem regenerates towards a new ecological baseline. This new baseline is characterized by lower and more variable biomass of cod, the commercially most important fish stock in the Baltic Sea, even under very low exploitation pressure. Furthermore, a socio-economic assessment shows that this signal is amplified at the level of societal costs, owing to increased uncertainty in biomass and reduced consumer surplus. Specifically, the combined economic losses amount to approximately 120 million € per year, which equals half of today''s maximum economic yield for the Baltic cod fishery. Our analyses suggest that shifts in ecological and economic baselines can lead to higher economic uncertainty and costs for exploited ecosystems, in particular, under climate change.     

Combined effects of global climate change and regional ecosystem drivers on an exploited marine food web

Changes in climate, in combination with intensive exploitation of marine resources, have caused large‐scale reorganizations in many of the world's marine ecosystems during the past decades. The Baltic Sea in Northern Europe is one of the systems most affected. In addition to being exposed to persistent eutrophication, intensive fishing, and one of the world's fastest rates of warming in the last two decades of the 20th century, accelerated climate change including atmospheric warming and changes in precipitation is projected for this region during the 21st century. Here, we used a new multimodel approach to project how the interaction of climate, nutrient loads, and cod fishing may affect the future of the open Central Baltic Sea food web. Regionally downscaled global climate scenarios were, in combination with three nutrient load scenarios, used to drive an ensemble of three regional biogeochemical models (BGMs). An Ecopath with Ecosim food web model was then forced with the BGM results from different nutrient‐climate scenarios in combination with two different cod fishing scenarios. The results showed that regional management is likely to play a major role in determining the future of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. By the end of the 21st century, for example, the combination of intensive cod fishing and high nutrient loads projected a strongly eutrophicated and sprat‐dominated ecosystem, whereas low cod fishing in combination with low nutrient loads resulted in a cod‐dominated ecosystem with eutrophication levels close to present. Also, nonlinearities were observed in the sensitivity of different trophic groups to nutrient loads or fishing depending on the combination of the two. Finally, many climate variables and species biomasses were projected to levels unseen in the past. Hence, the risk for ecological surprises needs to be addressed, particularly when the results are discussed in the ecosystem‐based management context.     

Seasonality of chlorophyll and nutrients in Lake Erken – effects of weather conditions

The effect of submerged macrophytes on interactions among epilimnetic phosphorus, phytoplankton, and heterotrophic bacterioplankton has been acknowledged, but remains poorly understood. Here, we test the hypotheses that the mean summer phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a): phosphorus ratios decrease with increased macrophyte cover in a series of nine lakes. Further, we test that both planktonic respiration and bacterioplankton production increase with respect to phytoplankton biomass along the same gradient of increasing macrophyte cover. Increased macrophyte cover was associated with a lower fraction of particulate phosphorus in epilimnia, with total particulate phosphorus declining from over 80% of total phosphorus in a macrophyte free lake to less than 50% in a macrophyte rich lake. Phytoplankton biomass (chlorophyll a) too was lower in macrophyte dominated lakes, despite relatively high levels of total dissolved phosphorus. Planktonic respiration and bacterioplankton production were higher in macrophyte rich lakes than would be expected from phytoplankton biomass alone, pointing to a subsidy of bacterioplankton metabolism by macrophyte beds at the whole lake scale. The results suggest that the classical view of pelagic interactions, which proposes phosphorus determines phytoplankton abundance, which in turn determines bacterial abundance through the production of organic carbon, becomes less relevant as macrophyte cover increases.