Experimental evaluation of realized niche models for predicting responses of plant species to a change in environmental conditions

Abstract. We estimated, using logistic regression techniques, the realized niches of the four dominant species in an experimental marsh complex located in the Delta Marsh, Manitoba, Canada. These models were then used to predict the probability of occurrence of these species in selected elevation ranges when water levels were raised in 1985 either 0, 30 or 60 cm above the long-term normal water level. These realized-niche models were calculated using elevation and species data collected in 1980. After having been eliminated by two years of deep flooding, the emergent vegetation in this complex had been re-established during a drawdown beginning in either 1983 or 1984. Our hypothesis was that from 1985 to 1989 the frequencies of occurrence of species in selected elevation ranges would converge to their probabilities predicted from the 1980 logistic models. This was not borne out by our results. Actual frequencies and predicted probabilities of occurrence of a species were similar at best less than 40% and then mostly in the control (0 cm) treatment. The realized-niche models were not adequate to predict the distribution of emergents after an increase in water level in the short term because the emergent species did not migrate upslope. Emergent species in the medium and high treatments either (1) died out - Scolochloa festucacea and Scirpus lacustris - after 3 yr because they could not survive permanent flooding, (2) stayed where they were - Phragmites australis - because they were unable to move upslope through clonal growth, or (3) became more widespread - Typha glauca only because of the expansion of small local populations already established in 1985 in areas dominated formerly by other species.     

Microbial composition affects the functioning of estuarine sediments

Although microorganisms largely drive many ecosystem processes, the relationship between microbial composition and their functioning remains unclear. To tease apart the effects of composition and the environment directly, microbial composition must be manipulated and maintained, ideally in a natural ecosystem. In this study, we aimed to test whether variability in microbial composition affects functional processes in a field setting, by reciprocally transplanting riverbed sediments between low- and high-salinity locations along the Nonesuch River (Maine, USA). We placed the sediments into microbial ‘cages'' to prevent the migration of microorganisms, while allowing the sediments to experience the abiotic conditions of the surroundings. We performed two experiments, short- (1 week) and long-term (7 weeks) reciprocal transplants, after which we assayed a variety of functional processes in the cages. In both experiments, we examined the composition of bacteria generally (targeting the 16S rDNA gene) and sulfate-reducing bacteria (SRB) specifically (targeting the dsrAB gene) using terminal restriction fragment length polymorphism (T-RFLP). In the short-term experiment, sediment processes (CO₂ production, CH₄ flux, nitrification and enzyme activities) depended on both the sediment''s origin (reflecting differences in microbial composition between salt and freshwater sediments) and the surrounding environment. In the long-term experiment, general bacterial composition (but not SRB composition) shifted in response to their new environment, and this composition was significantly correlated with sediment functioning. Further, sediment origin had a diminished effect, relative to the short-term experiment, on sediment processes. Overall, this study provides direct evidence that microbial composition directly affects functional processes in these sediments.     

Unraveling of the polymorphic C lambda 2-C lambda 3 amplification and the Ke+Oz- polymorphism in the human Ig lambda locus

Two polymorphisms of the human Ig(lambda) (IGL) locus have been described. The first polymorphism concerns a single, 2- or 3-fold amplification of 5.4 kb of DNA in the C(lambda)2-C(lambda)3 region. The second polymorphism is the Mcg(-)Ke(+)Oz(-) isotype, which has only been defined via serological analyses in Bence-Jones proteins of multiple myeloma patients and was assumed to be encoded by a polymorphic C(lambda)2 segment because of its high homology with the Mcg(-)Ke(-)Oz(-) C(lambda)2 isotype. It has been speculated that the Mcg(-)Ke(+)Oz(-) isotype might be encoded by a C(lambda) gene segment of the amplified C(lambda)2-C(lambda)3 region. We now unraveled both IGL gene polymorphisms. The amplification polymorphism appeared to result from a duplication, triplication, or quadruplication of a functional J-C(lambda)2 region and is likely to have originated from unequal crossing over of the J-C(lambda)2 and J-C(lambda)3 region via a 2.2-kb homologous repeat. The amplification polymorphism was found to result in the presence of one to five extra functional J-C(lambda)2 per genome regions, leading to decreased Ig(kappa):Ig(lambda) ratios on normal peripheral blood B cells. Via sequence analysis, we demonstrated that the Mcg(-)Ke(+)Oz(-) isotype is encoded by a polymorphic C(lambda)2 segment that differs from the normal C(lambda)2 gene segment at a single nucleotide position. This polymorphism was identified in only 1.5% (2 of 134) of individuals without J-C(lambda)2 amplification polymorphism and was not found in the J-C(lambda)2 amplification polymorphism of 44 individuals, indicating that the two IGL gene polymorphisms are not linked.     

Modelling parasite aggregation: disentangling statistical and ecological approaches

The overdispersion in macroparasite infection intensity among host populations is commonly simulated using a constant negative binomial aggregation parameter. We describe an alternative to utilising the negative binomial approach and demonstrate important disparities in intervention efficacy projections that can come about from opting for pattern-fitting models that are not process-explicit. We present model output in the context of the epidemiology and control of soil-transmitted helminths due to the significant public health burden imposed by these parasites, but our methods are applicable to other infections with demonstrable aggregation in parasite numbers among hosts.     

Cost-effectiveness of pharmacotherapy to reduce obesity

Aims

Obesity causes a high disease burden in Australia and across the world. We aimed to analyse the cost-effectiveness of weight reduction with pharmacotherapy in Australia, and to assess its potential to reduce the disease burden due to excess body weight.

Methods

We constructed a multi-state life-table based Markov model in Excel in which body weight influences the incidence of stroke, ischemic heart disease, hypertensive heart disease, diabetes mellitus, osteoarthritis, post-menopausal breast cancer, colon cancer, endometrial cancer and kidney cancer. We use data on effectiveness identified from PubMed searches, on mortality from Australian Bureau of Statistics, on disease costs from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and on drug costs from the Department of Health and Ageing. We evaluate 1-year pharmacological interventions with sibutramine and orlistat targeting obese Australian adults free of obesity-related disease. We use a lifetime horizon for costs and health outcomes and a health sector perspective for costs. Incremental Cost-Effectiveness Ratios (ICERs) below A$50 000 per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted are considered good value for money.

Results

The ICERs are A$130 000/DALY (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 93 000–180 000) for sibutramine and A$230 000/DALY (170 000–340 000) for orlistat. The interventions reduce the body weight-related disease burden at the population level by 0.2% and 0.1%, respectively. Modest weight loss during the interventions, rapid post-intervention weight regain and low adherence limit the health benefits.

Conclusions

Treatment with sibutramine or orlistat is not cost-effective from an Australian health sector perspective and has a negligible impact on the total body weight-related disease burden.     

The toxin-antitoxin proteins relBE2Spn of Streptococcus pneumoniae: characterization and association to their DNA target

The chromosome of the pathogenic Gram-positive bacterium Streptococcus pneumoniae contains between six to 10 operons encoding toxin-antitoxin systems (TAS). TAS are widespread and redundant in bacteria and archaea and their role, albeit still obscure, may be related to important aspects of bacteria lifestyle like response to stress. One of the most abundant TAS is the relBE family, being present in the chromosome of many bacteria and archaea. Because of the high rates of morbility and mortality caused by S. pneumoniae, it has been interesting to gain knowledge on the pneumococcal TAS, among them the RelBE2Spn proteins. Here, we have analyzed the DNA binding capacity of the RelB2Spn antitoxin and the RelB2Spn-RelE2Spn proteins by band-shift assays. Thus, a DNA region encompassing the operator region of the proteins was identified. In addition, we have used analytical ultracentrifugation and native mass spectrometry to measure the oligomerization state of the antitoxin alone and the RelBE2Spn complex in solution bound or unbound to its DNA substrate. Using native mass spectrometry allowed us to unambiguously determine the stoichiometry of the RelB2Spn and of the RelBE2Spn complex alone or associated to its DNA target.     

Determinants of species richness patterns in the Netherlands across multiple taxonomic groups

We examined the species richness patterns of five different species groups (mosses, reptiles and amphibians, grasshoppers and crickets, dragonflies, and hoverflies) in the Netherlands (41,500 km²) using sampling units of 5 × 5 km. We compared the spatial patterns of species richness of the five groups using Spearman’s rank correlation and used a stepwise multiple regression generalized linear modelling (GLM) approach to assess their relation with a set of 36 environmental variables, selected because they can be related to the several hypotheses on biodiversity patterns. Species richness patterns of the five groups were to a certain extent congruent. Our data suggest that environmental heterogeneity (in particular habitat heterogeneity) is one of the major determinants of variation in species richness within these five groups. We found that for taxonomic groups comprising a low number of species, our regression model explained more of the variability in species richness than for taxonomic groups with a large number of species.