Testing the accuracy of methods for reconstructing ancestral states of continuous characters.

Many methods are available for estimating ancestral values of continuous characteristics, but little is known about how well these methods perform. Here we compare six methods: linear parsimony, squared-change parsimony, one-parameter maximum likelihood (Brownian motion), two-parameter maximum likelihood (Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process), and independent comparisons with and without branch-length information. We apply these methods to data from 20 morphospecies of Pleistocene planktic Foraminifera in order to estimate ancestral size and shape variables, and compare these estimates with measurements on fossils close to the phylogenetic position of 13 ancestors. No method produced accurate estimates for any variable: estimates were consistently less good as predictors of the observed values than were the averages of the observed values. The two-parameter maximum-likelihood model consistently produces the most accurate size estimates overall. Estimation of ancestral sizes is confounded by an evolutionary trend towards increasing size. Shape showed no trend but was still estimated very poorly: we consider possible reasons. We discuss the implications of our results for the use of estimates of ancestral characteristics.     

The neuropsychiatry of megaloblastic anaemia.

The neuropsychiatric states of 50 patients with vitamin B12 deficiency and 34 patients with folate deficiency presenting with megaloblastosis in a general hospital were examined and compared. Abnormalities of the nervous system were found in two-thirds of both groups. Peripheral neuropathy was the most common condition associated with vitamin B12 deficiency and affective disorder with folate deficiency. The proportions of patients with organic mental change were similar in the two groups. Subacute combined degeneration of the cord was an uncommon complication and occurred only in the patients with vitamin B12 deficiency. There was no relation between haematological and neuropsychiatric abnormalities. The neuropsychiatry of megaloblastic anaemia seen in this study of patients presenting to haematologists or general physicians contrasts with that reported previously, before haematological techniques for separating the two deficiencies were introduced.