Living in the city: resource availability, predation, and bird population dynamics in urban areas

This article explores factors that shape population structure in novel environments that have received scant theoretical attention: cities. Urban bird populations exhibit higher densities and lower diversity. Some work suggests this may result from lower predation pressure and more predictable and abundant resources. These factors may lead to populations with few winners and many losers regarding access to food, body condition, and reproductive success. We explore these hypotheses with an individual-energy-based competition model with two phenotypes of differing foraging ability. We show that low frequency resource fluctuations favor strong competitors and vice versa. We show that low predation skews equilibrium populations in favor of weak competitors and vice versa. Increasing the time between resource pulses can thus shift population structure from weak to strong competitor dominance. Given recent evidence for more constant resource input and lower predation in urban areas, the model helps understand observed urban bird population structure.     

Crop Specialization,Exchange and Robustness in a Semi-arid Environment

We compare the robustness of food supplies to annual variation in rainfall within two different agricultural systems: a generalist system with one type of agent who cultivates both maize and agave, and a specialist system composed of two types of agents who cultivate either maize or agave and are able to exchange. When mean rainfall is relatively high and less variable or relatively low and more variable, food supplies in the specialist system are more robust than in the generalist system. However, at intermediate levels of mean rainfall and variability, food supplies in the specialist system are less robust than those in the generalist system. Our analysis suggests that conflicts of interest and their associated costs constrain the development of specialization in some environments. When considering the robustness of social-ecological systems, it is important to consider “for whom a coupled social and ecological system is robust?”     

Modeling Human Ecodynamics and Biocultural Interactions in the Late Pleistocene of Western Eurasia

Given the complex and multidimensional nature of human evolution, we need to develop theoretical and methodological frameworks to account for and model the dynamic feedbacks between co-operational biological and cultural evolutionary systems to better understand the processes that produced modern human behavior. Equally important is the generation of explicit theory-based models that can be tested against the empirical paleoanthropological record. We present a case study that examines evidence for culturally-driven behavioral change among Late Pleistocene hominins that altered the social niche occupied by hominins in western Eurasia, with consequences for subsequent biological and cultural evolution. We draw on a large sample of 167 Pleistocene assemblages across western Eurasia and employ mathematical and computational modeling to explore the feedbacks between cultural and biological inheritance. Shifts in land-use strategies changed the opportunities for social and biological interaction among Late Pleistocene hominins in western Eurasia with a cascade of consequences for cultural and biological evolution, including the disappearance of Neanderthals from the fossil and archaeological records, and the acceleration of cultural evolution among ancestors of modern humans.     

Analyzing the Impact of Agave Cultivation on Famine Risk in Arid Pre-Hispanic Northern Mexico

Cultivation of agave was common in pre-Hispanic northern Mexico and the American Southwest, and scholars generally accept that it was a strategy to ensure food supply during years of drought when the maize crop failed. Some even suggest that incorporating agave cultivation make large, nucleated settlements possible in arid northern Mexico ca. 500–900 CE. Yet the environmental circumstances under which farmers could reasonably expect such a strategy to decrease the chances of agricultural failure are not well understood. We explore the potential of this crop complementarity by assessing the risk of famine-induced migration events in different idealized environmental settings. We use Monte Carlo simulation to analyze a simple discrete-time, age-structured stochastic model for maize and agave agroecology, deriving the climatological conditions under which agave could have significantly reduced the probability of short- and long-term famine events. Investments in agave production made the most sense where average annual rainfall was between the levels that would ensure maximum maize yield and those that would mean loss of the maize crop due to drought-related mortality. Cultivating agave had little impact on famine risk at high (maize yields sufficient) and low (failure of both maize and agave) rainfall levels. Perhaps more surprisingly, it had its highest impact at moderate rainfall levels when variance in rainfall was relatively low. While a higher variance in rainfall increased the number of ‘good’ years for maize—where production would exceed demand and allow for storage—it also increased the probability of simultaneous failures in both agave and maize production. These findings are difficult to apply to specific times and places in the past, because rainfall distribution in complex, environments change, and it is difficult to take all relevant human interventions into account. The analysis does, however, offer support for the proposition that agave cultivation could have significantly enhanced survival probabilities of large, nucleated settlements in certain circumstances. It remains for further study to identify such circumstances more precisely geographically and temporally.

Governance in the Face of Extreme Events: Lessons from Evolutionary Processes for Structuring Interventions,and the Need to Go Beyond

Ecosystems - The increasing frequency of extreme events, exogenous and endogenous, poses challenges for our societies. The current pandemic is a case in point; but "once-in-a-century"...     

Fluctuating Environments and Phytoplankton Community Structure: A Stochastic Model

Spatial heterogeneity in organism and resource distributions can generate temporal heterogeneity in resource access for simple organisms like phytoplankton. The role of temporal heterogeneity as a structuring force for simple communities is investigated via models of phytoplankton with contrasting life histories competing for a single fluctuating resource. A stochastic model in which environmental and demographic stochasticity are treated separately is compared with a model with deterministic resource variation to assess the importance of stochasticity. When compared with the deterministic model, the stochastic model allows for coexistence over a wider range of parameter values (or life-history types). The model suggests that demographic stochasticity alone is far more important in increasing the possibility of coexistence than environmental stochasticity alone. However, the combined effects of both types of stochasticity produce the largest likelihood of coexistence. Finally, the influence of relative nutrient levels and nutrient pulse frequency on these results is addressed. We relate our findings to variable environment theory with evidence for both relative nonlinearity and the storage effect acting in this model. We show for the first time that temporal dynamics generated by demographic stochasticity may operate like the storage effect at particular spatial scales.     

Grazing Management, Resilience, and the Dynamics of a Fire-driven Rangeland System

We developed a stylized mathematical model to explore the effects of physical, ecological, and economic factors on the resilience of a managed fire-driven rangeland system. Depending on grazing pressure, the model exhibits one of three distinct configurations: a fire-dominated, grazing-dominated, or shrub-dominated rangeland system. Transaction costs and costs due to shrub invasion, via their effect on grazing decisions, strongly influence which stable configuration is occupied. This, in turn, determines the resilience of the rangeland system. These results are used to establish conditions under which management for profit is consistent with the maintenance of resilience. Received 2 January 2001; accepted 11 June 2001.     

Loss of Resilience, Crisis, and Institutional Change: Lessons from an Intensive Agricultural System in Southeastern Australia

Linked social-ecological systems in which surprise and crisis are interspersed with periods of stability and predictability are inherently difficult to manage. This condition, coupled with the legacies of past management actions, typically leaves policy and decision makers few options other than to incrementally adapt and reinforce the current trajectory of the system. Decision making becomes increasingly reactive and incremental as the system moves from one crisis to another. Eventually the system loses its capacity to cope with perturbations and surprise. Using a combination of dynamical-systems modeling and historical analysis, we studied a process of this kind as it developed in the Goulburn Broken Catchment in southeastern Australia over the past 150 years. Using the model to simulate trajectories of the biohydrological system, we correlate the state of the physical system to historical events and management action. We show how sequential management decisions have eroded the resilience of the system (its ability to cope with shocks and surprises) and reduced options for future change. Using the model in a forward-looking mode, we explore future management options and their implications for the resilience of the system.     

Intensification, Tipping Points, and Social Change in a Coupled Forager-Resource System

This paper presents a stylized bioeconomic model of hunter-gatherer foraging effort designed to study the process of intensification on open-access resources. A critical insight derived from the model is that the very success of an adaptation at the level of an individual forager group can create system-level vulnerabilities that subsequently feed back to cause emergent social change. The model illustrates how the intensification of harvest time by individuals within a habitat creates a forager-resource system that becomes vulnerable to perturbations. When the system is vulnerable, it is characterized by two resource harvest equilibria: a sustainable, low-effort equilibrium and a degraded, high-effort equilibrium. In this situation, the forager-resource system can be shocked back and forth between these different equilibria by perturbations, generating considerable risk for foragers. We use the model to isolate the ecological conditions under which the instability of the system generates the risk that foragers will experience a shortfall of resources, and we suggest a mechanism that might lead foragers to adopt social institutions that regulate who can access a habitat as an adaptive response. As an illustration of the potential utility of the insights drawn from the model, comparisons are made with a substantial ethnographic data set.