Local temperatures inferred from plant communities suggest strong spatial buffering of climate warming across Northern Europe

Recent studies from mountainous areas of small spatial extent (<2500 km²) suggest that fine‐grained thermal variability over tens or hundreds of metres exceeds much of the climate warming expected for the coming decades. Such variability in temperature provides buffering to mitigate climate‐change impacts. Is this local spatial buffering restricted to topographically complex terrains? To answer this, we here study fine‐grained thermal variability across a 2500‐km wide latitudinal gradient in Northern Europe encompassing a large array of topographic complexities. We first combined plant community data, Ellenberg temperature indicator values, locally measured temperatures (LmT) and globally interpolated temperatures (GiT) in a modelling framework to infer biologically relevant temperature conditions from plant assemblages within <1000‐m² units (community‐inferred temperatures: CiT). We then assessed: (1) CiT range (thermal variability) within 1‐km² units; (2) the relationship between CiT range and topographically and geographically derived predictors at 1‐km resolution; and (3) whether spatial turnover in CiT is greater than spatial turnover in GiT within 100‐km² units. Ellenberg temperature indicator values in combination with plant assemblages explained 46–72% of variation in LmT and 92–96% of variation in GiT during the growing season (June, July, August). Growing‐season CiT range within 1‐km² units peaked at 60–65°N and increased with terrain roughness, averaging 1.97 °C (SD = 0.84 °C) and 2.68 °C (SD = 1.26 °C) within the flattest and roughest units respectively. Complex interactions between topography‐related variables and latitude explained 35% of variation in growing‐season CiT range when accounting for sampling effort and residual spatial autocorrelation. Spatial turnover in growing‐season CiT within 100‐km² units was, on average, 1.8 times greater (0.32 °C km^?1) than spatial turnover in growing‐season GiT (0.18 °C km^?1). We conclude that thermal variability within 1‐km² units strongly increases local spatial buffering of future climate warming across Northern Europe, even in the flattest terrains.     

Trans-Atlantic genetic uniformity in the rare snowbed sedge <Emphasis Type="Italic">Carex rufina</Emphasis>

The red-listed, amphi-Atlantic sedge Carex rufina is highly specialized to certain alpine snowbeds, and threatened by current changes in snow cover duration and moisture conditions. Here we address its range-wide genetic diversity, history, and conservation using amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). Despite extensive primer testing, we detected very low overall diversity (4.1% polymorphic markers). Only a single AFLP phenotype was found throughout Norway and across the Atlantic to Iceland and Greenland, while another was found in Canada, suggesting glacial survival in one East and one West Atlantic refugium. East Atlantic C. rufina has probably been heavily bottlenecked in a small refugium, possibly situated within the maximum limits of the ice sheets. Its lack of diversity is likely maintained through local clonal growth causing longevity of genotypes. Habitat availability appears as the main limiting factor for C. rufina, and its currently occupied habitats need to be preserved to ensure its long-time survival.     

Frequency of local, regional, and long-distance dispersal of diploid and tetraploid Saxifraga oppositifolia (Saxifragaceae) to Arctic glacier forelands

? Premise of the Study: Climate change forces many species to migrate. Empirical small-scale data on migration and colonization in the Arctic are scarce. Retreating glaciers provide new territory for cold-adapted plant species, but the genetic consequences depend on dispersal distances and frequencies. We estimated local, regional, and long-distance dispersal frequencies, as well as their effect on levels of genetic diversity, in diploid and tetraploid individuals of Saxifraga oppositifolia. ? Methods: Samples were collected in four aged moraines in each of three glacier forelands, in surrounding areas and reference populations in the Arctic archipelago Svalbard. These samples were analyzed for neutral amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs, n = 707) and ploidy levels (n = 30). ? Key Results: Genetic clustering and ploidy analyses revealed two distinct genetic groups representing diploids and tetraploids, with few intermediate triploids. The groups were intermixed in most sampled populations. No differences in genetic diversity were found between tetraploids and diploids, or between established and glacier foreland populations. Seeds were dispersed over local, regional, and long distances, with the highest proportions of seeds originating from close sources. A minimum of 4-15 founding individuals from several source populations had initially established in each glacier foreland. ? Conclusions: Our data suggest that S. oppositifolia can rapidly colonize new deglaciated areas without losing genetic diversity. Thus, glacier forelands can be alternative habitats for cold-adapted vascular plants tracking their climatic niche. Our data show no difference in colonization success between diploid and tetraploid individuals.     

Genetic consequences of climate change for northern plants

Climate change will lead to loss of range for many species, and thus to loss of genetic diversity crucial for their long-term persistence. We analysed range-wide genetic diversity (amplified fragment length polymorphisms) in 9581 samples from 1200 populations of 27 northern plant species, to assess genetic consequences of range reduction and potential association with species traits. We used species distribution modelling (SDM, eight techniques, two global circulation models and two emission scenarios) to predict loss of range and genetic diversity by 2080. Loss of genetic diversity varied considerably among species, and this variation could be explained by dispersal adaptation (up to 57%) and by genetic differentiation among populations (F(ST); up to 61%). Herbs lacking adaptations for long-distance dispersal were estimated to lose genetic diversity at higher rate than dwarf shrubs adapted to long-distance dispersal. The expected range reduction in these 27 northern species was larger than reported for temperate plants, and all were predicted to lose genetic diversity according to at least one scenario. SDM combined with F(ST) estimates and/or with species trait information thus allows the prediction of species' vulnerability to climate change, aiding rational prioritization of conservation efforts.     

The extreme Beringian/Atlantic disjunction in Saxifraga rivularis (Saxifragaceae) has formed at least twice

Aim The oceanic Saxifraga rivularis L. presents one of the most extreme disjunctions known in the arctic flora: it has a small amphi‐Beringian range and a larger amphi‐Atlantic one. It was recently suggested to have had a single allopolyploid origin in Beringia at least one glacial cycle ago, followed by gradual expansion in a more humid period and differentiation into two allopatric subspecies (the Atlantic ssp. rivularis and the Beringian ssp. arctolitoralis). Here we explore the history of its extreme disjunction. Location The amphi‐Beringian and northern amphi‐Atlantic regions. Methods We obtained amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs) and chloroplast DNA sequences from 36 populations (287 individuals) and 13 populations (15 individuals), respectively. The data were analysed using principal coordinates analyses, Bayesian clustering methods, and analyses of molecular variance. Results Two distinctly divergent AFLP groups were observed, corresponding to the two described subspecies, but, surprisingly, four of the West Atlantic populations belonged to the supposedly Beringian endemic ssp. arctolitoralis. This was confirmed by re‐examination of their morphological characteristics. The overall AFLP diversity in the species was low (26.4% polymorphic markers), and there was no variation in the five investigated chloroplast DNA (cpDNA) regions. There was little geographic structuring of the AFLP diversity within each subspecies, even across the extreme disjunction in ssp. arctolitoralis, across the Bering Sea, and across the Atlantic Ocean, except that most plants from the arctic Svalbard archipelago formed a separate genetic group with relatively high diversity. Main conclusions The extreme disjunction in S. rivularis has evidently formed at least twice. The first expansion from Beringia was followed by allopatric differentiation into one Beringian and one Atlantic subspecies, which are distinctly divergent at AFLP loci but still harbour identical cpDNA haplotypes, suggesting that the expansion was quite recent but before the last glaciation. The next expansion from Beringia probably occurred by means of several long‐distance dispersals in the current interglacial, resulting in the colonization of the western Atlantic region by ssp. arctolitoralis. The poor geographic structuring within each subspecies suggests frequent long‐distance dispersals from two main Weichselian refugia, one Beringian and one western‐central European, but it is possible that the genetic group in Svalbard originates from an additional refugium.     

The diet of polar bears (Ursus maritimus) from Svalbard, Norway, inferred from scat analysis

Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) are heavily dependent on marine prey, in particular ice-associated seals, which they hunt on landfast sea ice or free-floating pack ice. Dramatic current (and predicted) losses of sea ice habitat make it increasingly important to gain more knowledge of the relative use by bears of all types of prey from the marine food web as well as from terrestrial sources. This study uses frequency of occurrence of food items in 119 polar bear scats sampled on the sea ice as well as on shore in coastal areas in the Svalbard Archipelago, mainly in spring, between 2003 and 2010 to explore the diet of bears in the region. Ringed seals (Pusa hispida) occurred in 62.2 % (CI 52.8–70.9 %) of the scat samples examined. Various terrestrial plants (32.8 %, CI 24.4–42.0 %) and marine algae (21.8 %, CI 14.8–30.4 %) also occurred frequently in the scats; the significance of this high occurrence of plants and algae is not clear. Bearded seals (Erignathus barbatus) and various bird species constituted only minor components of the diet, while Svalbard reindeer (Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus) occurred in 9.2 % (CI 4.7–15.9 %) of the scats, indicating that this species may play a more important role than previously reported. The novel combination of genetic analyses of material in the fecal samples along with detailed exploration of the physical–structural properties of prey hairs and plant parts provided a much fuller picture of the diet of polar bears than would have been possible from observational studies of polar bear predation behavior alone. This approach may provide an important tool for monitoring the responses of polar bears to ongoing ecosystem changes that will result from continued warming in the Arctic.     

Impact of ice ages on circumpolar molecular diversity: insights from an ecological key species

We address the impact of the ice age cycles on intraspecific cpDNA diversity, for the first time on the full circumboreal-circumarctic scale. The bird-dispersed bog bilberry (or arctic blueberry, Vaccinium uliginosum) is a key component of northern ecosystems and is here used to assess diversity in previously glaciated vs. unglaciated areas and the importance of Beringia as a refugium and source for interglacial expansion. Eighteen chloroplast DNA haplotypes were observed in and among 122 populations, grouping into three main lineages which probably diverged before, and thus were affected more or less independently by, all major glaciations. The boreal 'Amphi-Atlantic lineage' included one haplotype occurring throughout northern Europe and one occurring in eastern North America, suggesting expansion from at least two bottlenecked, glacial refugium populations. The boreal 'Beringian lineage' included seven haplotypes restricted to Beringia and the Pacific coast of USA. The 'Arctic-Alpine lineage' included nine haplotypes, one of them fully circumpolar. This lineage was unexpectedly diverse, also in previously glaciated areas, suggesting that it thrived on the vast tundras during the ice ages and recolonized deglaciated terrain over long distances. Its largest area of persistence during glaciations was probably situated in the north, stretching from Beringia and far into Eurasia, and it probably also survived the last glaciation in southern mountain ranges. Although Beringia apparently was important for the initial divergence and expansion of V. uliginosum as well as for continuous survival of both the Beringian and Arctic-Alpine lineages during all ice ages, this region played a minor role as a source for later interglacial expansions.