A novel parasitoid and a declining butterfly: cause or coincidence?

1. The small tortoiseshell butterfly (Aglais urticae L.) is considered to be a widespread and abundant generalist species in Northern Europe. However, it declined sharply in the U.K. between 2003 and 2008, coinciding with the arrival and spread of a parasitoid, Sturmia bella Meig. (Diptera: Tachinidae), which specialises on nymphalid butterflies. 2. Whether the decline in A. urticae is associated with the arrival of S. bella was investigated using data from a large‐scale butterfly monitoring scheme, and by collecting larvae to assess parasitoid incidence and parasitism frequency. Similar data were compiled for a related butterfly (Inachis io) which is also parasitised by S. bella but which is not declining. 3. Sturmia bella was recorded as far north as north Lincolnshire (53.53°N). Aglais urticae has declined significantly to the south of this latitude, but not to the north. 4. Sturmia bella was present in 26% and 15% of the larval groups of A. urticae and I. io, respectively, and now kills more individuals of A. urticae (but not I. io) than any native parasitoid. 5. Survival was 25–48% lower in batches of A. urticae larvae where S. bella was present, indicating that S. bella causes host mortality in addition to that caused by native parasitoids. 6. Our results suggest that S. bella may be playing a role in the recent decline of A. urticae. However, further research is needed to establish its effects relative to other potential drivers of trends in the abundance of this butterfly.     

Logistic regression when covariates are random effects from a non‐linear mixed model

In many studies, the association of longitudinal measurements of a continuous response and a binary outcome are often of interest. A convenient framework for this type of problems is the joint model, which is formulated to investigate the association between a binary outcome and features of longitudinal measurements through a common set of latent random effects. The joint model, which is the focus of this article, is a logistic regression model with covariates defined as the individual‐specific random effects in a non‐linear mixed‐effects model (NLMEM) for the longitudinal measurements. We discuss different estimation procedures, which include two‐stage, best linear unbiased predictors, and various numerical integration techniques. The proposed methods are illustrated using a real data set where the objective is to study the association between longitudinal hormone levels and the pregnancy outcome in a group of young women. The numerical performance of the estimating methods is also evaluated by means of simulation.     

Mesothelium of the murine allantois exhibits distinct regional properties

The rodent allantois is thought to be unique amongst mammals in not having an endodermal component. Here, we have investigated the mesothelium, or outer surface, of murine umbilical precursor tissue, the allantois (～7.25–8.5 days postcoitum, dpc) to discover whether it exhibits the properties of an epithelium. A combination of morphology, challenge with biotinylated dextran amines (BDAs), and immunohistochemistry revealed that the mesothelium of the mouse allantois exhibits distinct regional properties. By headfold stages (～7.75–8.0 dpc), distal mesothelium was generally squamous in shape, and highly permeable to BDA challenge, whereas ventral proximal mesothelium, referred to as “ventral cuboidal mesothelium” (VCM) for the characteristic cuboidal shape of its cells, was relatively impermeable. Although “dorsal cuboidal mesothelium” (DCM) resembled the VCM in cell shape, its permeability to BDA was intermediate between the other two regions. Results of immunostaining for Zonula Occludens‐1 (ZO‐1) and Epithelial‐cadherin (E‐cadherin), together with transmission electron microscopy (TEM), suggested that impermeability in the VCM may be due to greater cellular contact area between cells and close packing rather than to maturity of tight junctions, the latter of which, by comparison with the visceral yolk sac, appeared to be rare or absent from the allantoic surface. Both VCM and DCM exhibited an ultrastructure more favorable for protein synthesis than did the distal squamous mesothelium; however, at most stages, VCM exhibited robust afadin (AF‐6), whereas the DCM uniquely contained alpha‐4‐integrin. These observations demonstrate that the allantoic mesothelium is not a conventional epithelium but possesses regional ultrastructural, functional and molecular differences that may play important roles in the correct deployment of the umbilical cord and its associated vascular, hematopoietic, and other cell types. J. Morphol., 2011. © 2011 Wiley‐Liss, Inc.     

A Multiphase Design Strategy for Dealing with Participation Bias

Summary A recently funded study of the impact of oral contraceptive use on the risk of bone fracture employed the randomized recruitment scheme of Weinberg and Wacholder (1990, Biometrics 46, 963–975). One potential complication in the bone fracture study is the potential for differential response rates between cases and controls; participation rates in previous, related studies have been around 70%. Although data from randomized recruitment schemes may be analyzed within the two‐phase study framework, ignoring potential differential participation may lead to biased estimates of association. To overcome this, we build on the two‐phase framework and propose an extension by introducing an additional stage of data collection aimed specifically at addressing potential differential participation. Four estimators that correct for both sampling and participation bias are proposed; two are general purpose and two are for the special case where covariates underlying the participation mechanism are discrete. Because the fracture study is ongoing, we illustrate the methods using infant mortality data from North Carolina.     

A New Method for Estimating Growth Transition Matrices

Summary The vast majority of population models work using age or stage not length but there are many cases where animals cannot be aged sensibly or accurately. For these cases length‐based models form the logical alternative but there has been little work done to develop and compare different methods of estimating growth transition matrices to be used in such models. This article demonstrates how a consistent Bayesian framework for estimating growth parameters and a novel method for constructing length transition matrices accounts for variation in growth in a clear and consistent manner and avoids potential subjective choices required using more established methods. The inclusion of the resultant growth uncertainty in population assessment models and the potential impact on management decisions is also addressed.     

A Dated Phylogeny Complements Macroecological Analysis to Explain the Diversity Patterns in Geonoma (Arecaceae)

Integrating phylogenetic data into macroecological studies of biodiversity patterns may complement the information provided by present‐day spatial patterns. In the present study, we used range map data for all Geonoma (Arecaceae) species to assess whether Geonoma species composition forms spatially coherent floristic clusters. We then evaluated the extent to which the spatial variation in species composition reflects present‐day environmental variation vs. nonenvironmental spatial effects, as expected if the pattern reflects historical biogeography. We also examined the degree of geographic structure in the Geonoma phylogeny. Finally, we used a dated phylogeny to assess whether species richness within the floristic clusters was constrained by a specific historical biogeographic driver, namely time‐for‐diversification. A cluster analysis identified six spatially coherent floristic clusters, four of which were used to reveal a significant geographic phylogenetic structure. Variation partitioning analysis showed that 56 percent of the variation in species composition could be explained by spatial variables alone, consistent with historical factors having played a major role in generating the Geonoma diversity pattern. To test for a time‐for‐diversification effect, we correlated four different species richness measures with the diversification time of the earliest large lineage that is characteristic of each cluster. In support of this hypothesis, we found that geographic areas with higher richness contained older radiations. We conclude that current geographic diversity patterns in Geonoma reflect the present‐day climate, but to a larger extent are related to nonenvironmental spatial constraints linked to colonization time, dispersal limitation, and geological history, followed by within‐area evolutionary diversification. Abstract in Spanish is available at http://www.blackwell‐synergy.com/loi/btp .     

Population dynamics of three songbird species in a nestbox population in Central Europe show effects of density,climate and competitive interactions

Unravelling the contributions of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors in determining species population dynamics is a challenge, especially if the two factors interact. One approach is to apply stochastic population models to long‐term data, yet few studies have included interactions between density‐dependent and density‐independent factors, or explored more than one type of stochastic population model. However, both are important because model choice critically affects inference on population dynamics and stability. Here, we used a multiple models approach and applied log‐linear and non‐linear stochastic population models to time series (spanning 29 years) on the population growth rates of Blue Tits Cyanistes caeruleus, Great Tits Parus major and Pied Flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca breeding in two nestbox populations in southern Germany. We focused on the roles of climate conditions and intra‐ and interspecific competition in determining population growth rates. Density dependence was evident in all populations. For Blue Tits in one population and for Great Tits in both populations, addition of a density‐independent factor improved model fit. At one location, Blue Tit population growth rate increased following warmer winters, whereas Great Tit population growth rates decreased following warmer springs. Importantly, Great Tit population growth rate also decreased following years of high Blue Tit abundance, but not vice versa. This finding is consistent with asymmetric interspecific competition and implies that competition could carry over to influence population dynamics. At the other location, Great Tit population growth rate decreased following years of high Pied Flycatcher abundance but only when Great Tit population numbers were low, illustrating that the roles of density‐dependent and density‐independent factors are not necessarily mutually exclusive. The dynamics of this Great Tit population, in contrast to the other populations, were unstable and chaotic, raising the question of whether interactions between density‐dependent and density‐independent factors play a role in determining the (in) stability of the dynamics of species populations.     

Assessing population size and structure for Andean Condor Vultur gryphus in Bolivia using a photographic ‘capture‐recapture’ method

The Andean Condor Vultur gryphus is a globally threatened and declining species. Problems of surveying Andean Condor populations using traditional survey methods are particularly acute in Bolivia, largely because only few roosts are known there. However, similar to other vulture species, Andean Condors aggregate at animal carcasses, and are individually recognizable due to unique morphological characteristics (size and shape of male crests and pattern of wing coloration). This provided us with an opportunity to use a capture‐recapture (‘sighting‐resighting’) modelling framework to estimate the size and structure of an Andean Condor population in Bolivia using photographs of individuals taken at observer‐established feeding stations. Between July and December 2014, 28 feeding stations were established in five different zones throughout the eastern Andean region of Bolivia, where perched and flying Andean Condors were photographed. Between one and 57 (mean = 20.2 ± 14.6 sd) Andean Condors were recorded visiting each feeding station and we were able to identify 456 different individuals, comprising 134 adult males, 40 sub‐adult males, 79 juvenile males, 80 adult females, 30 sub‐adult females and 93 juvenile females. Open population capture‐recapture models produced population estimates ranging from 52 ± 14 (se) individuals to 678 ± 269 individuals across the five zones, giving a total of 1388 ± 413 sd individuals, which is roughly 20% of the estimated Andean Condor global population. Future trials of this method need to consider explicitly knowledge of Andean Condor movements and home‐ranges, habitat preferences when selecting suitable sites as feeding stations, juvenile movements and other behaviours. Sighting‐resighting methods have considerable potential to increase the accuracy of surveys of Andean Condors and other bird species with unique individual morphological characteristics.